Chavez opponents show force in referendum rally

CARACAS (Reuters) - More than 100,000 Venezuelans held a rally Thursday in the opposition's biggest show of force before a tight vote on whether President Hugo Chavez will be allowed to run for re-election as long as he lives.

A sea of "No" voters surged across the capital Caracas into a central square, vowing to stop Chavez from winning more power in a referendum Sunday in a polarized nation that already has few checks on its leftist firebrand president.

A student movement that rose up in May when Chavez shut a television station has led an outcry against reforms that the opposition political parties, the Roman Catholic Church and human rights groups denounce as authoritarian.

"We are winning back democracy," Freddy Guevara, a student leader wearing a red T-shirt emblazoned with "No," shouted from a podium at the rally. "There is no doubt that if everybody goes to vote, we will win."

The crowd waved Venezuela's red-blue-and-yellow flag and chanted "No, no, no" against a constitutional overhaul that also enshrines socialism as a state priority.

Chavez usually coasts to victory against a fragmented opposition. But polls show the anti-U.S. president and Cuba ally in the toughest campaign of his career.

Most surveys show a statistical tie between the "Yes" and "No" camps, although Chavez may have an advantage because he can activate the state-backed, get-out-the-vote machinery that has overwhelmed the opposition in the past.

The man who ends his hours-long speeches with a cry of "homeland, socialism or death," is popular among the urban and rural poor for spending the OPEC nation's oil revenue on schools and food subsidies.

But former allies have split with the self-styled revolutionary over a constitutional overhaul that would also allow him to censor the media and detain people without charges if he declares an "emergency."

Chavez calls his opponents oligarchs and dismisses the students, who draw most of their support from the middle- and upper-classes, as "little rich kids."

FRAUD AND PEACE

Thursday's peaceful rally contrasted with a campaign marred by violence -- including the shooting death of a Chavez supporter this week.

Venezuela's debt bonds have been underperforming the market due to investors' concerns over possible political turmoil if the losing side accuses the winner of fraud.

Many Venezuelans doubt the impartiality of the election authority. Chavez's vice president used to head the body.

"If you try and cheat, then the people will pour into the streets to defend the vote, defend our country and defend what we believe in," Henrique Capriles, a mayor of an area in Caracas, warned Chavez at the rally.

In previous campaigns, the opposition has also held massive rallies only to lose soundly at the ballot box.

And this time, with no single leader and few financial backers, they have shown less organizational power and only been able to hold a few large rallies in the capital.

In contrast, Chavez has constantly campaigned across the country, reaching areas where the opposition has less support.

While Chavez has added sweeteners to the reform such as shortening the workday, his moves to expand power are generally unpopular. That has left voters split, making turnout crucial in deciding the result, pollsters say.

"Through his political machinery, resources, pressure, etc, Chavez should have the better political operation," said Luis Vicente Leon, head of pollster Datanalisis. "So he may win, but it won't be due to majority support (for the reform)."