Change of guard: now that Trent Lott's Republicans are back in control, are gays and lesbians again going to be compared to kleptomaniacs? (Election 2002 Aftershocks).

During his first tenure as Senate majority leader, Trent Lott publicly compared homosexuality to kleptomania, blocked the nomination of openly gay philanthropist James Hormel as a U.S. ambassador, and was pilloried for ignoring a surge in antigay hate crimes even after the brutal murder of Matthew Shepard made international news.

But Lott, who first held the powerful leadership post from 1995 to 2001, is poised to regain it now that the GOP has recaptured the Senate. And this time the antigay Mississippi lawmaker has pledged to perform "better than the last time and learn from those experiences."

"I wouldn't be surprised if Trent Lott learned his lesson," says Rich Tafel, executive director of Log Cabin Republicans, a national gay political group. "I'm sure he holds the same views he always did. But if he wants to hold on to his leadership this time, he needs to moderate his image, and toning down the rhetoric on gay rights is a great place to start."

Democrats were less sanguine. "When the senator says he has learned from mistakes, whether Hormel or the lack of response to the Shepard murder, that's a sign of hope," says Chad Johnson, executive director of the National Stonewall Democrats, a federation of gay Democratic groups. "But when it comes down to it, we want more than gentler rhetoric. What really matters is getting better laws on the books, and I don't see that happening in this Congress."

Indeed, Republican control of Congress and the White House virtually guarantees until 2005 the stalling of the two major pieces of federal gay rights legislation--the Employment Non-Discrimination Act and the Local Law Enforcement Enhancement Act, a hate-crimes bill that would include sexual orientation in its list of protected characteristics. Less clear is the fate of traditionally bipartisan AIDS-related bills and judicial nominations, on which Democrats likely will attempt to woo moderate Republicans such as Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island in the narrowly divided Senate.

Instead, national gay rights groups appear destined to spend the next two years fending off antigay legislation and amendments promulgated by the newly emboldened House right wing. In that fight, lobbyists are likely to enlist the help of Jim Kolbe, the openly gay Arizona Republican who has a record of deftly outmaneuvering the House right wing on antigay measures. (Another stalwart pro-gay House Republican, Connie Morella of Maryland, lost her reelection bid despite gaining the endorsement of the Human Rights Campaign.)

"Clearly, we will work closely with Republican moderates," says Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, the openly lesbian Democrat who bucked the GOP trend by winning reelection in a landslide. "There is a real struggle within the GOP about what sort of tactics to use now that they have the presidency and both houses of Congress. One camp realizes that the nation is truly divided and that they have only a razor-thin majority, while the other will try to pass a huge agenda, including an antigay one."

It is difficult to assess the impact of the gay and lesbian vote in this year's election, since Voter News Service, the polling consortium sponsored by the networks and CNN, did not include questions about sexual orientation in exit polling for the first time since 1990. VNS had said in the three previous election years that the gay vote composed between 4% and 5% of the electorate and that gays cast ballots for Democrats at a clip of between 60% and 70%.

But it was clear that in the majority of state and local races, gay-related issues had a much smaller profile than in the recent past. "I don't think there is any question that the Democratic message about civil rights did not get through to the electorate as a whole," Johnson concedes. "President Bush's sweep through key states just before the election and the media coverage the trip generated focused the nation on security and foreign policy. It was a masterful political performance, but one that will last for about a week before people start asking questions about domestic issues again."

Despite the lack of substantive debate, gay baiting made its way into several major races. In Georgia the Republican Party launched a statewide radio campaign alleging that Democratic Senate incumbent Max Cleland "sided with Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton, voting to allow public schools to discriminate against the Boy Scouts by banning them from meeting on school grounds." Fellow Democratic senator Zell Miller called the attack on Cleland, who voted against the bill on unrelated grounds, "a bunch of malarkey."

In Florida a Republican firm alleged in thousands of telephone calls to likely Democratic voters that Bill McBride, the Democratic challenger to Gov. Jeb Bush, supports marriage for gay men and lesbians. In fact, McBride supports domestic-partnership legislation but not marriage rights for same-sex couples. The voice on the recorded messages belonged to Ralph Reed, the former executive director of the Christian Coalition. (After Jeb Bush criticized the calls, they were halted.)

In a strange reversal, Republicans accused Montana Democrats of depicting Senate hopeful Gary Taylor, in the candidate's own words, "like one of the Village People." The charge stems from a television ad featuring footage of Taylor in his former job as a hairdresser. Taylor lost the race to incumbent Democrat Max Baucus, who denied that the ads suggested anything about Taylor's sexual orientation.

At the same time the electorate sent more Republicans to Congress, it also shied away from antigay causes on the local level: Such ballot measures went down to defeat in Westbrook, Maine; Tacoma, Wash.; and Ypsilanti, Mich. Also, in Sarasota, Fla., voters passed an amendment to the city charter that bans discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender. Religious conservatives could claim victory only in Nevada, where voters approved Question 2, a ballot measure prohibiting state recognition not just of same-sex marriage but domestic-partnership legislation as well. The state now boasts the dubious distinction of allowing legalized gambling and prostitution while outlawing gay marriage.

"Most people who voted in favor of the question are not bigots," says Gary Peck, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Nevada. "It passed because voters were sold a bill of goods by proponents of the act. They inundated us with bogus arguments about how people would flock here from other parts of the country, demanding that their gay marriages be recognized by the state. They falsely claimed that churches and clergy would be forced to perform gay marriages even though it is contrary to their faith."

In Ypsilanti voters turned back an amendment seeking to remove sexual orientation protections from the city's Human Rights Ordinance by a whopping 63%-to-34% margin. The flip side of the focus on the war against terrorism appeared to have helped defeat the measure. "This was a watershed moment of `We are all Americans, and we are all in this together against the bad guys," says Sean Kosofsky, director of policy for the Triangle Foundation, a Michigan gay rights group based in Detroit. "Now we are more likely to be seen as folks just like everyone else." To avoid yet another reversal of political fortune, that's a message Trent Lott may want to heed.

Gay victors

The Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund ushers
At least 34 candidates to Election Day wins

All three of the openly gay members of
the U.S. House of Representatives-Republican
Jim Kolbe of Arizona and Democrats Tammy
Baldwin of Wisconsin and Barney Frank of
Massachussets-will be returning to
Washington, D.C., next year. However,
three openly gay congressional
challengers-Republican Richter Elser of
Connecticut, Democrat Hank Perritt of Illinois,
and Democrat Gerrie Schipske of California--were
unsuccessful in their election bids.

Meanwhile, at least 34 of the Candidate who were
supported by the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, a
group set up to support viable gay and lesbian
candidates, have been elected to office. In
addition to Baldwin, those candidates include:

     NAME          STATE             OFFICE             RETURNED

Jack Jackson Jr.   Arizona         State house
                                    of representatives
Wally Straughn     Arizona         State house
                                    of representatives
Carole Migden      California      State board
                                    of equalization
Christine Kehoe    California      State assembly         [check]
John Laird         California      State assembly
Mark Leno          California      State assembly
Gail Dekreon       California      Superior court judge
Scott Gruedl       California      Chico city council
Jennifer Veiga     Colorado        State house            [check]
                                    of representatives
John Brady         Delaware        Sussex Country
                                    recorder of deeds
David Catania      District of     City council           [check]
                    Columbia
Jim Graham         District of     City council           [check]
                    Columbia
Karla Drenner      Georgia         State house            [check]
                                    of representatives
Larry Mckeon       Illinois        State house            [check]
                                    of representatives
Maggie McIntosh    Maryland        State house            [check]
                                    of representatives
Rich Madaleno      Maryland        State house
                                    of representatives
Jarrett Barrios    Massachusetts   State senate
Liz Malia          Massachusetts   State senate           [check]
Chris Kolb         Michigan        State house
                                    of representatives    [check]
Dave Coulter       Michigan        Oakland Country
                                    commission
Scott Dibble       Minnesota       State senate
David Parks        Nevada          State assembly         [check]
Ray Buckley        New Hampshire   State house
                                    of representatives    [check]
Corey Corbin       New Hampshire   State house
                                    of representatives    [check]
Mckim Mitchell     New Hampshire   State house
                                    of representatives    [check]
Jim Splaine        New Hampshire   State house
                                    of representatives    [check]
Tom Duane          New York        State senate           [check]
Deborah Glick      New York        State assembly         [check]
Daniel O'Donnell   New York        State assembly
Jim Roth           Oklahoma        Oklahoma Country
                                    commission
David Cicilline    Rhode Island    Mayor of Providence
Jim Moeller        Washington      State house
                                    of representatives
Tim Carperter      Wisconsin       State senate