Change is in the air.

Most established airlines were set up as national carriers and their routes have been jealousy guarded by their respective governments. The continent's biggest airlines compete head to head on very few routes and privately owned operators have received little incentive to extend their networks. There are, however, signs that foreign investment and the rise of the low-cost airlines will lead to a more competitive market, lower prices and greater access to air travel. Report by Neil Ford

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Just as Africa's colonial era national railway systems do not--for the most part--encourage cross-border trade, so too national air carriers have largely failed to adequately connect the continent's main cities.

This was recognised as long ago as 1980, when negotiations on opening up African air routes first began. The result was the 1988 Yamoussoukro Declaration, which aimed to create "an environment conducive to the development of intra-African and international air services" but despite repeated promises to open up existing routes to foreign airlines, progress has been painfully slow because of the desire to protect entrenched interests.

In May last year, the third African Union Conference of African Ministers of Air Transport agreed to give the African Civil Aviation Conference the power to finally implement the Yamoussoukro Declaration by setting a series of competition rules and a mechanism for settling disputes. (See interview on page 46)

However, the process is unlikely to be quick and instead of preparing to challenge each other, it seems more likely that the established airlines will be forced to tackle other opponents: European and Asian airlines that are challenging them on long haul routes; and low cost airlines (LCAs) that are beginning to set up comprehensive domestic and regional networks.

Under its Single European Sky policy, the EU is already forcing greater access for European airlines to slots at African airports.

The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) director for Eastern and Southern Africa, Geoffrey Moshabesha, says that some airlines are to blame for the failure to implement the Declaration.

He commented: "Politically, African ministers have committed themselves to the decision. The problem is that some officials, including airline chief executives, go back home and advise their respective ministers that they are not ready and still need to be protected. I have seen many of these airlines continuing to milk their countries of resources as a result of subsidies."

The chief executive of Air Botswana, Lance Brogden, added: "I do not believe that the Declaration will happen in the way it was envisioned. The poor progress over the past two decades is proof of this. To rely on political will and forums such as the African Union to make the liberalisation of the African skies come to fruition is not going to bring quick results." There are already signs that African airlines are modernising their fleets. At the start of this year, there were 154 aircraft on order for African airlines, the highest figure for many years. This is partly the result of a desire to meet increasingly stiff international safety regulations but also the result of the growing importance of low-cost airlines.

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It is important to emphasize that the LCA model relies on the use of small to medium-sized, modern aircraft that can be kept in use as much as possible. It therefore contrasts with the operations of the very small privately owned airlines that have operated services on perhaps only one or two routes for many years in Africa. Most of these have little financial muscle and so operate older aircraft that often need regular repairs.

The national carriers are placing orders for larger aircraft with the two giants of the aviation sector. European joint venture Airbus expects to export 641 planes to Africa in the two decades up to 2023 at a cost of $60bn; US firm Boeing has increased its forecast of the number of its planes to be supplied to African customers over the next 20 years to 490, worth about $50bn to the company. In both cases, the modernisation of existing fleets and capacity expansion are predicted.

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North African airlines are certainly among the main customers. Libyan Airlines has signed a preliminary agreement to purchase 15 aircraft from Airbus, while Afriqiyah Airways has already ordered 12 new jetliners from Airbus and the third Libyan carrier, Buraq Air, has agreed to buy three Boeing 737-800s.

EgyptAir is to buy five Airbus A330-200 aircraft, with an option on three more, while Royal Air Maroc is proving to be one of the biggest spenders, have ordered five Boeing 787s and 24 medium-sized aircraft at a combined cost of $2.2bn.

However, it was Ethiopian Airlines that became just the second airline in the world to order the Boeing 787 dreamliner, which is due to be launched next year. In Nigeria, Arik Air is aiming for rapid expansion, with the acquisition of seven Boeing aircraft last year of various sizes.

In common with many other emerging markets, sub-Saharan Africa has also branched out from the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing.

Brazil's Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica (Embraer) has established itself as an important supplier of medium-sized aircraft for use on mid-range routes within Africa. At the end of last year, at the Dubai Air Show, Virgin Nigeria signed an agreement to purchase 10 Embraer E-jets at a cost of $811m, with an option on 14 more.

Embraer produces two types of aircraft, the 170 and 190 models, with a double fuselage that provides more room. The chief executive of Virgin Nigeria, Conrad Clifford, commented: "In the Nigerian market, the issue of greater headroom was very important." The airline plans to launch services on 25 new routes to 12 new airports, mainly in West Africa, as it seeks to move beyond its initial base in Nigeria.

The Brazilian firm has now supplied its medium-sized planes to 26 African airlines and already has 290 aircraft in service in the skies above the continent.

Other airlines that employ the Brazilian aircraft include EgyptAir, Imatong Airways and also Kenya Airways, which plans to use them to increase capacity on routes currently served by much smaller turboprops.

SAA opts for more routes

South African Airways (SAA) is seeking to counter growing competition by launching more routes. Over the past few years, many national carriers have sought to counter the rise of the LCAs by removing services on some routes, but SAA hopes that introducing a string of new flights to other African airports can help to boost profits.

At the end of last year, the carrier's general commercial manager, Rushj Lehutso, commented: "We are paying particular attention to the continent in order to bring the airline back into profitability. Not only will this play an important role in helping to restore SAA to profitability over the coming 12 to 18 months, it will also facilitate the growth of tourism in Africa and further the objectives of Nepad."

Services to other African states now account for 16% of the airline's entire revenues, which stood at R20.6bn for 2006-07.

Apart from introducing new routes, the frequency and capacity of flights to cities such as Abidjan, Blantyre, Dar es Salaam, Gaborone, Kinshasa, Lilongwe, Luanda, Nairobi and Windhoek will be increased.

In addition, SAA's Johannesburg to New York service will now stop in Accra, as the airline has secured landing rights. However, previous plans to launch flights to Buenos Aires, Chicago and Rio de Janeiro have now been shelved.

There is no doubt that the purchase of new aircraft and the launch of new services will help to create a more comprehensive network of air travel across Africa.

While the Yamoussoukro Declaration is far from being implemented, the kind of cross-border competition that had previously been envisaged for the continent will not take off.

Yet it seems clear that competition is growing through a series of piecemeal agreements between governments and airlines, plus the increased importance of non-African airlines.

A recent report by South Africa's Brenthurst Foundation revealed that the freeing up of African skies would have a major impact on economic growth and tourism. It also highlighted the potential for hub airports by emphasising how much the cities of Dubai and Singapore had benefited from the massive growth of their airports. As African states begin to benefit from air links with Asia, the Middle East and perhaps also Latin America, rather than having to rely solely on services to Europe, opportunities for genuine hub airports in Africa may begin to arise. Only then will the continent become fully integrated in the global network of air routes.