Center Holds.

IF the municipal elections last week proved anything, what has been widely hailed as the "inevitable" future -- that is, the takeover of City Flail by a "progressive" coalition of enviros, labor and Latino activists -- may not be as likely as predicted. The results of the election, in fact, showed a remarkably consistent trend towards moderation among L.A. voters, which provides some renewed hope for economic development and small business in the city.

Of course, the most stunning news was the decisiveness of Antonio Viliaraigosa's defeat. Despite an edge in spending, enough endorsements to get elected Pope and generally fawning media coverage, the former Assembly Speaker never could overcome his past, both personally and politically. At the end of the day the charismatic Villaraigosa, a man of still great political potential, today is simply perceived as too unreliable, too liberal, too much a product of his labor and Chicano activist past to pass muster with L.A.'s mainstream electorate.

Critically, the other city races also showed surprising strength for moderation. In fact, organized labor and the environmental left, the cornerstone of the "progressive" forces, did rather badly on last Tuesday. They lost not only the mayoralty, but most council races as well as a critical school board contest. Perhaps best of all for business, former Deputy Mayor Rocky Delgadillo, in a stunning upset, overcame Councilman Michael Feuer, potentially the city's most effective left-enviromnentalist politician.

This is all the more remarkable because in the highest echelons of L.A. business elite -- including several of the Business Journal's Richest Angelenos -- seemed all but anxious to surender the keys to the city to Villaraigosa and his Latino-Labor coalition. Along with Riordan, list entrees for the former Speaker included Eli Broad, Ron Burkle Jerry Perenchio and Haim Saban. They all lent their names and capitalist credibility to what had begun as a decidedly left-of-center effort.

"It's a stunning repudiation of these guys," suggests long-time Republican political strategist Arnold Steinberg. In the future although they will remain important leaders, these top business figures will never again be able to persuade anyone, except perhaps reporters, that they speak for the city's broader economic community.

Union blues

But by far the biggest local loser in this race was Miguel Contreras, head of the local Labor Council. Contreras virtually "bet the farm" on Villaraigosa, spending huge sums of union money in a race against a candidate, City Attorney James Hahn, whose pro-labor sympathies have never been suspect. Many unionists, particularly city workers and building trades, resented Contreras' intrusion and now there may be some recriminations.

Just a few months ago, Contreras seemed like the emerging power in town. Labor was destined to dominate the political landscape for years to come. Now he has invoked the hostility of several important council members, as well as the newly seated Mayor Hahn. Union power at City Hall, for the first time in four years, may even recede, rather than grow.

The powerful teacher unions also continue to lose their rearguard action in favor of keeping L.A. public schools ineffective and poorly run. In this one area, particularly with the stunning victory of Marlene Canter over labor stooge Valerie Fields, Mayor Riordan, whose tactical missteps elsewhere have been legion, has achieved arguably his most important longterm political legacy.

The media also had its share of winners and losers. The Los Angeles Weekly -- which, with almost frantic passion, helped shape and position Villaraigosa's campaign--ultimately may have contributed to his undoing. Despite his best efforts, Villaraigosa remained, in many eyes, the standard bearer for the "progressive" laborleft-Latino alliance that has become the obsession of editor Harold Meyerson.

In the multi-candidate primary, the enthusiasm whipped up for this kind of politics was effective, particularly as the center-right vote split between Joel Wachs and Steve Soboroff. But once in the runoff, Villaraigosa could not shake off his "movement" image. Desperate to save their candidate, the Weekly, once Hahn was on the offensive, tried rather desperately to cast the heir to L.A.'s most revered liberal name as "the new Yorty." Not surprisingly, it didn't work.

Bucking the Times

This wasn't a good election for the Los Angeles Times, either. In fact, for the first time m years, many of the Times' endorsed candidates -- notably Villaraigosa and Feuer -- went down to defeat. A wide perception among Hahn-backers, including many in the San Fernando Valley, that the Times' editorial coverage also favored Villaraigosa may serve to limit its credibility in certain now-influential circles.

Of course, the election also had some notable winners. From a media point of view, the Daily News, which endorsed Hahn and Delgadillo, seemed closer to the voters' sentiments than the other leading media outlets. Politically, and this is not exactly a unadulterated blessing, many of the traditional City Hall insiders -- led by attorney William Wardlaw and the usual army of lobbyists and consultants -- also seem likely to renew their stranglehold on the city's purse strings and regulatory apparatus.

In terms of L.A.'s diverse political economy, clearly the two critical elements behind Hahn's victory, African Americans and the Valley, have gained stature. For African Americans, this is a return to the center of power after years of relative exile under Riordan who consciously courted Latinos but never really connected with black voters. Particular note should be made of the rise to political prominence of former Lakers standout and now prominent developer Earvin "Magic" Johnson, whose impressive savvy off the court can be seen in his highly public role behind both the Hahn and Delgadillo campaigns.

As for the Valley, particularly its pro-secession wing, the election again proved the region's political significance as the ultimate determinate of citywide elections. Activists such as David Fleming, chairman of the Economic Alliance of the San Fernando Valley, who backed Hahn, hopes the new Mayor might be amenable to breaking the city into a series of semi-autonomous "boroughs" as an alternative to secession. If not, the secessionist bandwagon seems destined to take off, without the threat of racial blackmail that might have been used if Villaraigosa had won office.

Finally, the new breed of "post-Chicano" politicians, such as Valley Councilman Alex Padilla and now City Attorney-elect Delgadillo, can represent the emerging Latino majority without having to genuflect towards Miguel Conireras, Villaraigosa or their self-appointed new benefactors, the Anglo "progressives" of the Westside.

Natural divisions among Latinos -- by class, length of residence, age, political orientation -- will now find new expression. This is far healthier than an enforced political orthodoxy that a Villaraigosa mayoralty may have brought in its wake.

To be sure, this year's elections were not an unadulterated victory for business, but more of a potential catastrophe averted. Under the uninspiring Hahn, with his own political debts to pay and a still left-oriented council, the city is unlikely to become a business-friendly mecca for entrepreneurs. But at least businesses of all stripes -- and Angelenos of all types -- will have a decent chance to have their concerns aired at City Hall.

Joel Kotkin is a senior fellow at the Davenport Institute for Public Policy at Pepperdine University and at the Milken Institute in Santa Monica.