Cellular Market Goes Ballistic, Reaching 1 Billion by Q3 2002.

Business Editors

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 16, 2000

By September of 2002, the number of worldwide wireless subscribers will reach the 1 billion mark with a worldwide penetration rate of close to 17 percent, according to Cahners In-Stat Group, a high-tech market research firm.

Subscribers are expected to increase to approximately 1.87 billion by 2004 as 3G services continue on an evolutionary path allowing airtime pricing to proceed downward and data to become seamless. In addition, wireless handsets and appliances will become the preferred method of accessing the worldwide web, contributing further to an increased subscriber rate.

In-Stat has found that wireless subscriber growth rates in industrialized countries continue at a very steady, controlled rate, with the U.S. subscriber base projected to grow at an average rate of 16.8 million subscribers per year during the next five years.

Both data and subscriber growth in Western Europe will soar, having been fueled by calling party pays (CPP), continent-wide roaming, and extremely active prepaid plans. Growth in emerging nations such as Brazil, China, and Eastern Europe is also accelerating rapidly as significant cellular deployments are made.

Overall, In-Stat expects that as subscriber rates increase, the decline of analog services will continue, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. According to Ray Jodoin, principal analyst for In-Stat's Wireless Service, "There is no doubt that many of today's new subscribers are enthralled with feature-rich digital services, and, this in part, is driving an increase in digital numeric growth rates."

In the U.S., digital is expected to enjoy a 68 percent market share this year and in Europe, analog is scheduled to decline at a CAGR of 7.5 percent. In Canada, the number of analog subscribers is also declining, however, at a significantly slower rate, as population densities cannot justify digital conversion.

Recent In-Stat research also reveals:

-- 3G is expected to be deployed more quickly in Japan than in

any other country, with service beginning as early as fourth

quarter of 2001.

-- Churn will continue to be the greatest problem faced by the

industry as subscribers attempt to find the best combination

of cost, digital roaming features, and coverage.

The report, Cellular Market Goes Ballistic -- 2000 Wireless Subscriber Forecast (No. GW0004SU), provides a wireless industry overview, 3G update, and worldwide and region-specific forecasts for cellular subscribers. To purchase this report, or for more information, please call Matt Woods at 617/630-2139; [e-mail] or visit http://www.instat.com/catalog/cat-cw.htm to purchase online.

The report price is $2995 USD.

Cahners In-Stat Group (http://www.instat.com/) covers the full spectrum of digital communications research from vendor to end-user, providing the analysis and perspective that allows technology vendors and service providers worldwide to make more informed business decisions.