Cavendish looks too short for tricky finale.

Byline: Dylan Hill

AS ever the final stage of the Tour de France looks one for the sprinters after the final nightmare of Mont Ventoux for the Tour autobus yesterday.

There have been only five successful escapes in the 34 years the race has finished on the Champs-Elysees, and that means we're back in Mark Cavendish territory with the Manxman no better than 4-7 to land his sixth win of the race today.

Cavendish's stunning win in stage 19 proved he is a far more complete rider than the raw talent who won four stages last year, yet those odds may underestimate the difficulty of the Paris finale for a Champs-Elysees newcomer.

The series of circuits comprises 70km of uphill and downhill stretches on cobblestones, making it the next toughest sprint to win in this year's race following the race into Barcelona, in which Cavendish was only 16th.

That's not to say Cavendish won't win, because the speedster has rewritten the rulebook in the last two years, but there's better value in taking him on.

Thor Hushovd won that

Stage 21 Montereau - Paris Start 12.30pm Finish Approx 4.49pm Distance 164km Climbs None Riders remaining 156/180 Weather Sunny. 9mph southerly winds. Temp 26C tricky sprint in Barcelona and also has a fine recent record on the Champs-Elysees, winning in 2006 before finishing second to Daniele Bennati the following year.

It seems ludicrous that he's going to beat Cavendish to the green jersey, but it certainly shows he's at the top of his game and he's great each-way value at 12-1. It may also be worth backing Gerald Ciolek, who was second in Paris last year and furious with himself for losing out on the line to Gert Steegmans.

Ciolek has been knocking on the door again with five top-seven finishes in the race.

Recommendations T Hushovd 2pts each-way 12-1 general G Ciolek 1pt each-way 20-1 general