Casting shipments to slow: a review of the first quarter indicates a minimal decline in 2007 following growth in 2006.The annual forecast compiled by Stratecasts Inc., Estero, Fla., and published in the January January: see month. 2007 issue of MODERN CASTING predicted a minimal slowdown For articles with similar titles, see Slow Down (disambiguation). A slowdown is an industrial action in which employees perform their duties but seek to reduce productivity or efficiency in their performance of these duties. following a growth year in 2006. Through ongoing interviews of casting users and econometric e·con·o·met·rics n. (used with a sing. verb) Application of mathematical and statistical techniques to economics in the study of problems, the analysis of data, and the development and testing of theories and models. experts analyzing the first quarter of 2007, the firm has determined that many market sectors are indicating continued strength while others begin to decline. Motor vehicle production in the first quarter continued to be weak, with an overall decrease of 6% in light vehicle production. Medium to heavy truck shipments also had a first quarter decline and were down 18% vs. the first quarter of 2006. Based on a forecast downturn Downturn The transition point between a rising, expanding economy to a falling, contracting one. downturn A decline in security prices or economic activity following a period of rising or stable prices or activity. of this market, the truck forecast, which originally called for a 7% downturn, could now decrease 15% from its 2006 levels. However, aluminum casting demand in motor vehicles remains high and is forecast to rise in the second quarter. Housing starts in the first quarter continued to weaken, and a turnaround Turnaround A situation where a company that has had poor performance for an extended period of time experiences a positive reversal. Notes: A speculator may profit from a turnaround if he or she accurately anticipates the improvement of a poorly performing company. is not expected until the fourth quarter. It is forecast that housing starts could be off 8% for the year 2007. Construction activity has been affected by the poor housing market and is forecast to be down 1.2% in 2007. Export of construction machinery continues to be strong, but inventories are expected to be high, causing a 2% decline in 2007. Strong freight The price or compensation paid for the transportation of goods by a carrier. Freight is also applied to the goods transported by such carriers. The liability of a carrier for freight damaged, lost, or destroyed during shipment is determined by contract, statute, or car production also continues, though a downturn of 15% from the 2006 peak is expected this year. Gray Iron The original forecast for gray iron shipments in the January 2007 article, "U.S. Casting Sales to Maintain Course with 3.7% Rise," has been decreased 2.5%, as shown in Table 1. Gray iron shipments in 2007 are forecast to drop 2.7% to 4.66 million tons (Transparent Optical Networking Services) A marketing term for providing dark fiber to a customer. The customer is responsible for generating the transmission signal and interpreting it at the other end. See dark fiber. in the U.S. Motor Vehicles The production of light vehicles in the first quarter of 2007 is reported to be 6% below its mark during the same period in 2006. Production is expected to increase in the last two quarters and slightly increase total light vehicle production more than that of 2006 to 11.4 million vehicles. Vehicle production is forecast at five million passenger cars and 6.4 million light trucks. The conversion of iron cylinder cylinder, in mathematics, surface generated by a line moving parallel to a given fixed line and continually intersecting a given fixed curve called the directrix; each line of the family of lines forming the cylinder is called a ruling, or generator. heads to aluminum is accelerating rapidly, while the main thrust to aluminum blocks is not scheduled until after 2008. All three domestic OEMs continue to use a high percentage of iron V6 blocks in their light trucks. Gray iron consumption in light vehicles is expected to remain at fewer than a million tons in 2007, with 910,000 tons of shipments forecast. Shipments for medium to heavy trucks are forecast to decline 16% as truck and trailer In communications, a code or set of codes that make up the last part of a transmitted message. See trailer label. production decreases. Municipal Castings Housing starts are reported to be down 8% in the first quarter of 2007, lowering the demand for municipal castings. However, casting production is expected to rise in the latter two quarters. Shipments of 553,000 tons are forecast for 2007 with a further increase to 572,000 tons in 2008 as housing starts begin to rise. Machine Tools Sales of machine tools in the U.S. were up again in 2006 after six declining years and are expected to rise again in 2008. The gain is expected to raise gray iron casting shipments by 3.2% to 64,000 tons for 2007. Internal Combustion Engines Internal combustion engine A prime mover, the fuel for which is burned within the engine, as contrasted to a steam engine, for example, in which fuel is burned in a separate furnace. The market for diesel engine castings is dependent on six major market sectors, as shown below: Medium to Heavy Truck: 58% Farm: 8% Construction, Mining, Oil: 16% Industrial: 8% Marine: 1% Generator generator, in electricity, machine used to change mechanical energy into electrical energy. It operates on the principle of electromagnetic induction, discovered (1831) by Michael Faraday. , Power: 7% Other: 2% Based on an input/output See I/O and PC input/output. (programming, operating system) input/output - (I/O) Communication between a computer and its users, its storage devices, other computers (via a network) or the outside world. The devices the computer uses to do this are called "peripherals". analysis of these sectors, it is forecast that gray iron diesel engine castings could decline nearly 10% in 2007 to 436,000 tons. Valves and Fittings fit·ting adj. Being in keeping with a situation; appropriate. n. 1. The act of trying on clothes whose fit is being adjusted. 2. A small detachable part for a machine or apparatus. 3. The long term annual growth rate (AGR AGR advanced gas-cooled reactor ) of gray iron valve castings from '07 to '17 is forecast at 3% based on the following input/output analysis: Pipeline Valves (15% of market): 3% AGR Water/Wastewater (20%): 3.2% AGR Power Generators (10%): 3% AGR Oil Field/Petroleum (7%): 4% AGR Chemical (12%): 3.2% AGR Commercial/Residential (12%): 3.3% AGR Export (21%): 2.5% AGR Others (3%): 2.5% AGR Gray iron castings used in valves and fittings are forecast at 216,000 tons in 2007, 2.7% below 2006, as water and wastewater Wastewater is any water that has been adversely affected in quality by anthropogenic influence. It comprises liquid waste discharged by domestic residences, commercial properties, industry, and/or agriculture and can encompass a wide range of potential contaminants and applications are expected to decline. Ductile Iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. Total shipments of ductile iron are expected to decrease 1.4% in 2007 to 4,449,000 tons in the U.S. Table 2 depicts the estimated 2006 shipments, along with the new 2007 forecast. Pipe Pressure pipe production is expected to decrease slightly in 2007 to 2,070,000 tons based on the decrease in housing starts and losses to plastic pipe. Motor Vehicle A 1.3% increase in consumption of ductile iron in light vehicles is forecast based on the increase in light vehicle production, though a decrease in applications from 185 lbs. to 180 lbs. of ductile iron per vehicle is forecast as suspension suspension, in vehicles suspension, in automobiles, system of springs used to suspend the frame, body, engine, and power train above the wheels. Its principal purpose is to lessen the jarring of the automobile that is caused by irregularities in the roads applications continue to be converted to aluminum. Ductile iron casting shipments for consumption in medium to heavy trucks is forecast to drop 50,000 tons in 2007 to 281,000 tons. Farm Equipment Sales of farm equipment are forecast to gain slightly in 2007 and spur a ductile iron casting consumption growth of 1.6%. Special Industry Machinery A 3.6% rise in shipments of ductile iron is forecast for 2007 in applications in printing, plastic, paper and textile textile Any filament, fibre, or yarn that can be made into fabric or cloth, and the resulting material itself. The word originally referred only to woven fabrics but now includes knitted, bonded, felted, and tufted fabrics as well. machinery based on interviews of users. Austempered Ductile Iron (ADI) Consumption of ADI is expected to grow to 170,000 tons in 2007 based on new automotive, military, and power transmission applications. Steel Based on continued strength in the railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. industry, steel castings Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. are expected to maintain relatively high production levels in 2007, though a loss of 7.8% is forecast to 1,390,000 tons. Tables 3 and 4 depict de·pict tr.v. de·pict·ed, de·pict·ing, de·picts 1. To represent in a picture or sculpture. 2. To represent in words; describe. See Synonyms at represent. the estimated 2006 shipments, plus revised forecasts for 2007. Railroad A return to a moderate year in deliveries of freight cars is forecast, ensuring high production of steel castings in railroad casting facilities. Though a loss of 100,000 tons is forecast for carbon steel and low alloy alloy (ăl`oi, əloi`) [O. Fr.,=combine], substance with metallic properties that consists of a metal fused with one or more metals or nonmetals. railroad casting, a total of 648,000 tons of shipments are expected in 2007. This should keep the utilization utilization, n 1. the extent to which a given group uses a particular service in a specified period. Although usually expressed as the number of services used per year per 100 or per 1000 persons eligible for the service, utilization rates may be of capacity at a relatively high level for the industry. Construction, Mining, Oilfield Despite a surge See power surge. SURGE - Sorter, Updater, Report Generator, Etc. IBM 704, 1959. Sammet 1969, p.8. in oilfield casting production spurred by the price increases, steel casting production in the construction and mining industries is forecast to feed a strong demand in these industries of 378,000 tons in the U.S. Corrosion Resistant Steels Shipments of corrosion resistant steel castings continue to grow at a long term annual growth rate of 1.3% and are expected to reach 100,000 tons in 2007. The valve and pump segments continue to dominate the market, consuming 33,000 and 19,000 tons of castings in 2007. A 2.9% gain over 2006 is forecast for 2007. Nonferrous non·fer·rous adj. 1. Not composed of or containing iron. 2. Of or relating to metals other than iron. nonferrous Adjective 1. Aluminum Die Castings die casting Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. It is forecast that aluminum die casting shipments will exceed 2006 by 1.3% to 1,273,000 tons. Table 5 depicts the estimated 2006 shipments, along with the new forecast for 2007. Aluminum casting consumption in motor vehicles is forecast to reach an average of 260 lbs. per vehicle with die castings at 55% of that figure. Die castings in motor vehicles is expected to grow to 721,000 tons in 2007. Aluminum Permanent Mold and Sand Castings Casting is the process of production of objects by pouring molten material into a cavity called a mold which is the negative, or mirror image of the object, and allowing it to cool and solidify. Aluminum castings made in permanent molds and sand molds are forecast to reach 993,000 tons in 2007, 3% over the 2006 shipments. Table 6 describes the updated re-forecast of shipments. Aluminum heads are produced by the lost foam, gravity Gravity The gravitational attraction at the surface of a planet or other celestial body. The quantity g is often referred to simply as “gravity’’ or “the force of gravity’’ of Earth, both of which are incorrect. mold and low pressure casting methods. Aluminum engine blocks now made via sand and diecasting processes. Copper-Base Shipments of copper-base valve castings are expected to decline 2.2% to 311,000 tons in 2007 (Table 7). Note: The forecast and estimates made in this report are based on estimates of individuals and organizations and are therefore subject to change and error as the business environment changes. For More Information "Domestic Supply Slows to a Drip DRIP. The right of drip is an easement by which the water which falls on one house is allowed to fall upon the land of another. 2. Unless the owner has acquired the right by grant or prescription, he has no right so to construct his house as to let the water in 2007," K. Kirgin, MODERN CASTING, March 2007, p. 29 "U.S. Casting Sales to Maintain Course with 3.7% Rise," K. Kirgin, MODERN CASTING, January 2007, p. 27. "Casting Sales Forecast Sales forecast A key input to a firm's financial planning process. External sales forecasts are based on historical experience, statistical analysis, and consideration of various macroeconomic factors. to Grow 14% by '08," K. Kirgin, MODERN CASTING, January 2006, p. 20 K. Kirgin, Stratecasts Inc., Estero, Florida Estero is a census-designated place (CDP) in Lee County, Florida, United States. As of the 2000 census, the CDP population was 9,503. It is the home of Germain Arena, which hosts the home games for the Florida Everblades ECHL hockey team and the Florida Firecats af2 arena football A 50-year metalcasting industry veteran, Ken Kirgin founded Stratecasts Inc. in the early 1980s to provide domestic and international forecasting and trends analysis and strategic planning Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy, including its capital and people. .
Utilization of Capacity Declines to 83%
The following table indicates the 2007 estimated forecast
capacity and utilization rates for the cast metals industry
in the U.S.
Metal Capacity (000 tons) % Utilization
Iron 11,100 83
Steel 1,560 89
Aluminum 2,780 83
Copper Alloy 380 82
Magnesium 160 76
Zinc 390 85
Other Nonferrous 70 86
Total 16,460 83
Revised Iron Forecast
A reforecast for 2007 shipments of gray and ductile iron shows slight
declines from 2006.
Table 1. Gray Iron Shipments (000 Tons)
NAICS SIC Industry Estimated Forecast Re-Forecast
2006 2007 2007
234110 1611 Municipal 560 570 553
224910 1623 Soil Pipe 238 217 228
331511 3312 Ingot Molds 30 30 30
332918 343 Sanitary 200 215 180
33291 3494 Valves 260 289 250
33361 3511 Internal Comb. 480 409 436
Engines
33311 352 Farm Machinery 298 300 302
333120 3531 Construction 270 262 260
Machinery
333131 3532 Mining Machinery 36 38 38
333132 3533 Oil Field 66 66 68
Machinery
333512 3541 Machine Tool 62 63 64
333514 3544 Dies/Tools 14 14 13
333516 3547 Rolling Mill 22 22 22
Machinery
33329 355 Special Industry 220 226 226
Machinery
33391 3561 Pumps/Compressors 242 244 244
333612 3566 Power Transmission 115 117 116
3334 3585 Refrigeration/AC 120 125 118
335312 361 Electric Motor 55 54 53
3352 363 Household 40 40 36
Appliance
3361 371 Car & Light Truck 906 953 910
336120 3713 Med./Heavy Truck 247 218 207
Other Gray Iron 190 180 180
Other CGI 117 126 126
TOTAL 4,788 4,778 4,660
Table 2. Ductile Iron Shipments (000 Tons)
NAICS SIC Industry Estimated Forecast Re-forecast
2006 2007 2007
33291 3494 Valves/Fittings 222 239 216
33151 3498 Pressure Pipe 2,090 2,300 2,070
33361 3511 Internal Comb. 114 104 106
Engine
33311 352 Farm Equipment 127 135 129
333120 3531 Construction 230 224 225
Machinery
333132 3533 Oil Field 85 88 90
Equipment
333512 3541 Machine Tool 13 14 14
333514 3544 Dies/Tools 12 12 11
333516 3548 Roll Machinery 11 11 11
33329 355 Special Industry 111 115 115
Machinery
33391 3561 Pump/Compressor 97 100 100
333612 3566 Power Transmission 29 30 30
3334 3585 Refrigeration/AC 40 42 41
333512 361 Motors/Generator 21 22 21
3361 371 Car & Light Truck 891 951 903
336120 3713 Med./Heavy Truck 331 295 281
Other Ductile 87 87 86
Iron
TOTAL Ductile 4,511 4,769 4,449
Iron
Revised Steel Forecast
A re-forecast of steel casting shipments is slightly higher than the
original forecast but still shows declines from 2006.
Table 3. Steel Shipments by End-Use Industry (000 Tons)
NAICS SIC Industry Estimated Forecast Re-Forecast
2006 2007 2007
33291 3494 Valve/Fitting 112 112 112
333611 3511 Turbine 22 24 24
33312 353 Const, Mining, 378 373 378
Oil Field, Mat'l.
Hand.
333516 3547 Roll Machinery 19 19 19
33329 355 Special Industry 38 38 38
Machinery
33391 3561 Pump 37 38 38
336120 3713 Truck (including 60 55 53
Military)
3365 374 Railroad 758 628 648
Other Steel 84 80 80
Total Steel 1,508 1,367 1,390
Table 4. Steel Shipments by Metal Type (000 Tons)
Estimated Forecast Re-Forecast
Steels 2006 2007 2007
Carbon/Low Alloy 1,285 1,133 1,164
Corrosion Resistant 103 105 105
Heat Resistant 38 38 38
Manganese Steel 45 45 45
Other Wear/Abrasion 37 38 38
Resistant Steels
Total Steel 1,508 1,359 1,390
Revised Nonferrous Forecasts
Growth in nonferrous shipments originally forecast for 2007 is not as
strong in the revised report.
Table 5. Aluminum Die Casting Shipments (000 Tons)
NAICS SIC Industry Estimated Forecast Re-Forecast
2006 2007 2007
33361 3511 Internal 83 94 79
Combustion Engine
333911 3546 Power Hand Tools 30 32 31
3341 357 Computer/Office 41 41 41
Equipment
3334 3585 Refrigeration/AC 40 46 38
335312 361 Electrical 32 37 30
Equipment
3352 363 Household 44 50 42
Appliances
3361 371 Motor Vehicles 697 765 721
3364 372 Aircraft 24 25 25
Other Die Cast 266 276 266
Total Al Die Cast 1,257 1,366 1,273
Table 6. Aluminum Permanent Mold and Sand Casting Shipments (000 Tons)
NAICS SIC Industry Estimated Forecast Re-Forecast
2006 2007 2007
3361 3511 Internal Comb. 36 40 34
Engine
333911 3546 Power Hand Tools 13 14 13
3341 357 Computer/Office 13 14 12
Equipment
3334 3585 Refrigeration/AC 13 14 13
3352 363 Household 26 26 22
Appliance
3361 371 Motor Vehicle 579 625 598
3364 372 Aircraft 75 78 80
Other PM/Sand 209 215 221
Total PM/Sand 964 1,026 993
Table 7. Copper-Base Casting Shipments (000 Tons)
NAICS SIC Industry Estimated Forecast Re-Forecast
2006 2007 2007
33291 3494 Industrial Value 150 161 142
& Plumbing
Fittings (3432)
Other Copper-Base 168 174 169
Total Copper-Base 318 335 311
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