Casting sales forecast to grow 14% by '08: U.S. metal casting shipments are expected to continue to rebound, despite the ongoing growth of imports.Despite only a slight growth in light vehicle production in 2005, metal casting Metal casting A metal-forming process whereby molten metal is poured into a cavity or mold and, when cooled, solidifies and takes on the characteristic shape of the mold. shipments rose 4.2% over 2004 to 14,142,000 tons. The rebound rebound (rē´bownd), n/v 1. a recovery from illness. n 2. an outbreak of fresh reflex activity after withdrawal of a stimulus rebound adjective is expected to continue in each of the next three years and show an overall growth of 7.9% to 14,648,000 tons from 2004 to 2008. While gray iron casting shipments are expected to show a long-term Long-term Three or more years. In the context of accounting, more than 1 year. long-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss in the value of a security that has been held over a specific length of time. Compare short-term. decline of 1% per year, other cast metals are to rise. Ductile iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. casting shipments are forecast to gain 1.8% in 2006 followed by a solid 5% increase in the next three years to exceed 4.8 million tons in 2008. Aluminum casting shipments are expected to rise 2.6% in 2006 and grow in the short term by 8.3% through 2008. Even though steel castings Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. are expected to decline 0.8% per year in the long term, increases in railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. freight car deliveries in the short term are forecast to propel pro·pel tr.v. pro·pelled, pro·pel·ling, pro·pels To cause to move forward or onward. See Synonyms at push. [Middle English propellen, from Latin shipments to more than 1.3 million tons in 2008. Although increases in the economy and in industrial production in the U.S. during the next few years are expected to spur significant increases in casting demand, gains in imports are forecast to keep domestic casting shipments at a minimum in many market sectors. Imports of castings, in the form of raw castings and semi-finished and completed cast parts, are forecast to reach 3.2 million tons in 2006. Higher oil prices and other factors are expected to increase the market for small passenger cars and result in a rise in car imports, which would reduce the market share of domestic light vehicle manufacturers. New proposed fuel economy standards are expected to spur the conversion of iron blocks, carriers and suspension castings to aluminum in light trucks and increase the growth of light metals (Chem.) the metallic elements of the alkali and alkaline earth groups, as sodium, lithium, calcium, magnesium, etc.; also, sometimes, the metals of the earths, as aluminium. See also: Metal . Interviews of casting end users and analyses of econometric e·con·o·met·rics n. (used with a sing. verb) Application of mathematical and statistical techniques to economics in the study of problems, the analysis of data, and the development and testing of theories and models. forecasts have supported the optimism for gains in casting demand in most market sectors for the next three years. Metal casting sales, which are estimated at $32.93 billion in 2005, are forecast to increase to $37.67 billion by 2008 and rise to $42.6 billion in 2015. Overall Metal Casting Shipments Shipments of metal castings are expected to increase 1.1% to 14.30 million tons in 2006 and grow by 3.6% to 14.65 million tons by 2008 (Fig. 1). Figure 2 depicts the long-term forecast by the five main cast metals. Ferrous ferrous (fĕr`əs), iron in the +2 valence state. Containing or having to do with iron. The difference between ferrous and ferric is the number of valence electrons they contain (ferrous contains two and ferric contains three), which Casting Shipments Shipments of ferrous castings are predicted to rise 1% in 2006 to 10.9 million tons and gain an additional 150,000 tons per year by 2008 to 11.06 million tons. Ferrous casting sales are forecast to increase to more than $15.8 billion in 2006 and continue to grow to $18 billion by 2015. Gray Iron--Gray iron casting shipments dropped to an all-time low in 2003 to 4.68 million tons, gained only 2.9% in 2005 and are expected to decline 1.6% in 2006 to 4.74 million tons. A long-term decline of 1% per year is forecast (Table 1). Ductile ductile /duc·tile/ (duk´til) susceptible of being drawn out without breaking. duc·tile adj. Easily molded or shaped. ductile susceptible of being drawn out without breaking. Iron--Ductile iron casting shipments are expected to rise 1% in 2005 to 4.69 million tons, rise to 4.84 million tons in 2008 and grow 0.6% annually to 4.88 million tons in 2015 (Table 2). Steel--Steel casting shipments are forecast to rise 3.70/0 in 2006, grow 5.1% in the short term in 2008 and decline at an annual rate of 0.8% in the next 10 years (Table 3). Nonferrous non·fer·rous adj. 1. Not composed of or containing iron. 2. Of or relating to metals other than iron. nonferrous Adjective 1. Metal Casting Shipments Shipments of nonferrous castings are forecast to rise at an annual rate of 1.3% from 3.12 million tons in 2005 to 3.56 million tons in 2015. Nonferrous casting sales are expected to grow from $13.9 billion in 2005 to $19.7 billion in 2015. Aluminum--Casting shipments are predicted to grow 2.7% in 2006 to 2.35 million tons, rise in the short term 8.3% from 2005 to 2008, and grow in the long term 1.6% annually to 2.68 million tons in 2015 (Table 4). Copper-Base--Shipments of bronze, brass and other copper-base castings are forecast to grow 1.6% in 2006 and decrease at an average annual rate of 0.9% through 2015 (Table 5). Forecast by End-Use Industry Following is a look at the forecast of casting demand by the major end-use industries for metal castings. Motor Vehicles The production of light vehicles in the U.S., which includes both passenger and light trucks, is expected to increase 1% in 2005 after dropping 1.9% in 2004. Based on the analysis of the year-to-date Year-to-date (YTD) The period beginning at the start of the calendar year up to the current date. production in the end of eight months in 2005, light vehicle production is forecast to increase to 11.73 million tons for the year. Forecast--It is forecast that shipments of gray iron castings for light vehicles are to decline annually to 939,000 tons by 2008 and reduce at an annual long-term rate of 1.5% to reach 806,000 tons in 2012. The average weight of gray iron per light vehicle is forecast to drop to 160 lbs. (72.6 kg). This is a loss of 500 lbs. (226.8 kg) per vehicle since 1981. Ductile iron shipments for consumption in light vehicles are expected to decrease slightly by 0.4% to 977,000 tons in 2006. A long-term loss Long-term loss A loss on the sale of a capital asset held less than 12 months that can be used to offset a capital gain. of 1% per year is predicted based on the conversion of suspension and differential parts to light metals. Steel casting use in trucks and military vehicles Military vehicles include all land combat and transportation vehicles, excluding rail-based, which are designed for or are in significant use by military forces. See also list of armoured fighting vehicles. is forecast to decline to 60,000 tons in 2006 and at a rate of 6.7% per year in the long term. Aluminum casting weight a weight that turns a balance when exactly poised. - B. Trumbull. See also: Casting per vehicle has increased to 260 lbs. (118 kg) in 2006 and is forecast to continue to rise to 280 lbs. (127 kg) in 10 years. Aluminum casting shipments in motor vehicles are forecast to increase 2.1% in 2006 to 1.4 million tons and grow in the long term to 1.6 million tons by 2015. The forecasted over all trend for magnesium magnesium (măgnē`zēəm, –zhəm), metallic chemical element; symbol Mg; at. no. 12; at. wt. 24.305; m.p. about 648.8°C;; b.p. about 1,090°C;; sp. gr. 1.738 at 20°C;; valence +2. casting usage in light vehicles is expected to grow from 78,000 tons in 2005 to 95,000 tons in 2006 and 140,000 tons in 2008. Internal Combustion Engines Internal combustion engine A prime mover, the fuel for which is burned within the engine, as contrasted to a steam engine, for example, in which fuel is burned in a separate furnace. It is estimated that the diesel engine market consumes 90% of the gray and ductile iron castings shipped in this classification. The small gasoline gasoline or petrol, light, volatile mixture of hydrocarbons for use in the internal-combustion engine and as an organic solvent, obtained primarily by fractional distillation and "cracking" of petroleum, but also obtained from natural gas, by segment consumes 90% of the aluminum casting shipments in this market. Forecast--The shipments of gray iron castings, used predominantly pre·dom·i·nant adj. 1. Having greatest ascendancy, importance, influence, authority, or force. See Synonyms at dominant. 2. in diesel engines, rebounded in 2004 from four declining years as truck production recovered. Shipments are forecast to drop slightly in 2006 from 450,000 tons to 430,000 tons and then begin to decline at an average annual rate of 1.9% as imports increase. Shipments of compacted graphite graphite (grăf`īt), an allotropic form of carbon, known also as plumbago and black lead. It is dark gray or black, crystalline (often in the form of slippery scales), greasy, and soft, with a metallic luster. iron engine castings in 2006 are predicted at 42,000 tons with a forecasted growth at about 5,000 tons/yr. Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to rise from 114,000 tons in 2005 to 116,000 tons in 2006, an increase of 1.8%. Shipments of carbon and low alloy steel Low alloy steel is steel alloyed with other elements, usually molybdenum, manganese, chromium, vanadium, silicon, boron or nickel, in amounts of up to 10% by weight to improve the hardenability of thick sections. castings for use in the turbine turbine, rotary engine that uses a continuous stream of fluid (gas or liquid) to turn a shaft that can drive machinery. A water, or hydraulic, turbine is used to drive electric generators in hydroelectric power stations. and turbine generator generator, in electricity, machine used to change mechanical energy into electrical energy. It operates on the principle of electromagnetic induction, discovered (1831) by Michael Faraday. industries are forecast to grow at a rate of 0.6% per year from 18,000 tons in 2005 to 19,000 tons in 2015. Aluminum castings in internal combustion engines, primarily used in lawn and garden and marine and sports equipment, are forecast to increase from 125,000 tons in 2005 to 155,000 tons in 2015, a long-term annual growth of 2.2%. Agricultural Implement Manufacturing Farm machinery sales are expected to grow 2% in 2006, led by increases in two- and four-wheel tractor tractor, in agriculture, vehicle used to pull such equipment as plows, cultivators, and mowers; to power stationary devices such as saws and winches; and to push snowplows and earth-moving implements. production. A long-term gain Long-term gain A profit on the sale of a capital assets held longer than 12 months, and eligible for long-term capital gains tax treatment. of 1% annually is used in our forecast of casting growth. Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments for farm equipment, exclusive of engine castings, are forecast to decrease from 308,000 tons in 2005 to 256,000 tons in 2015, an annual rate of decline of 1.8%. Ductile iron castings are expected to continue to replace gray iron, malleable iron (Metal.) iron sufficiently pure or soft to be capable of extension under the hammer; also, specif., a kind of iron produced by removing a portion of the carbon or other impurities from cast iron, rendering it less brittle, and to some extent malleable. and steel and achieve a short-term Short-term Any investments with a maturity of one year or less. short-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss on the value of an asset that has been held less than a specified period of time. growth of 8% until 2008, raising annual shipments to 140,000 tons. Construction Machinery & Equipment Construction machinery and equipment is composed of establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing heavy machinery and equipment used by the construction industry, such as bulldozers, concrete mixers, cranes, pavers, dredgers and power shovels Power shovel A power-operated digging machine consisting of a lower frame and crawlers, a machinery frame, and a gantry supporting a boom which in turn supports a dipper handle and dipper. . Forecasts are normally based on growth in housing starts, building construction and public works public works pl.n. Construction projects, such as highways or dams, financed by public funds and constructed by a government for the benefit or use of the general public. Noun 1. , including highways, airports, and water and sewer SEWER. Properly a trench artificially made for the purpose of carrying water into the sea, river, or some other place of reception. Public sewers are, in general, made at the public expense. Crabb, R. P. Sec. 113. projects. Forecast--Shipments of gray iron castings are forecast to grow in 2006 to 260,000 tons, (2% more than 2005) and 0.3% per year in the long term to 262,000 tons in 2015. Ductile iron castings are forecast to increase 3.8% in 2006 and grow in the short term to 224,000 tons in 2008, a 6.7% increase over 2005. Steel casting consumption in construction machinery and equipment is expected to decline at an annual rate of 0.4% due to replacement with ferritic ductile iron in specific applications. Carbon and low alloy steel casting shipments are forecast to rise to 164,000 tons in 2006 before beginning a slow decline in subsequent years. Mining Machinery & Equipment Shipments of mining machinery are expected to increase 3% in 2006 based on increases in mine production and in growth in exports of mining machinery. Exports are close to 50% of the total shipments and 2.5 times imports. Forecast--Steel casting shipments rose slightly in 2005; however, shipments continue to be low in 2006 at 111,000 tons, despite the growth in machinery production, due to casting imports and loss of applications to other materials and fabrications. Oil Field Equipment Continuing high oil prices have kept the demand for oil field equipment at peak levels. An increase of 2.8% is expected in 2006 from a low in 2002, followed by a drop in subsequent years as prices decrease. Forecast--Shipments of ductile iron castings for use in oil field equipment are forecast to increase 2.5% in 2006 despite an increase in imports. Continued growth to 90,000 tons is predicted in 2008 based on the conversion of applications from gray iron and steel. A short-term gain Short-term gain (or loss) A profit or loss realized from the sale of securities held for less than a year that is taxed at normal income tax rates if the net total is positive. of 3.5% is forecast for steel casting shipments in 2006; however, substitution Substitution Arsinoë put her own son in place of Orestes; her son was killed and Orestes was saved. [Gk. Myth.: Zimmerman, 32] Barabbas robber freed in Christ’s stead. [N.T.: Matthew 27:15–18; Swed. Lit. of ductile iron will lower shipments in the next few years at a rate of decline of 2.1% to 38,000 tons in 2015. Valves & Fittings Imports of cast valve parts are estimated to exceed exports by almost 30%. This continuing increase in imports has caused a five-year decline in shipments since 1998. Based on housing start increases, a long-term growth of 2.5% is forecast. Forecast--Gray iron valve castings are forecast to increase from 276,000 tons in 2005 to 296,000 tons in 2008 and continue increasing near that level in the long term. Despite the increase in imports, a short-term rise in shipments of 8% by 2008 is expected based on pipeline and water distribution growth. Malleable iron casting shipments are forecast to decrease from 37,000 tons in 2005 to 25,000 tons in 2015 as ductile iron is substituted for many applications. Carbon and low alloy steel castings are forecast to decline 10% in the next four years to 56,000 tons. Brass, bronze and other copper-based alloy alloy (ăl`oi, əloi`) [O. Fr.,=combine], substance with metallic properties that consists of a metal fused with one or more metals or nonmetals. castings are expected to rise 6% in the next four years despite imports of more than 30,000 tons. A slight growth of 8,000 tons in shipments is forecast in the next four years; however, imports of valves and golf club heads from China continue to keep domestic growth in investment castings investment casting Precision casting for forming metal shapes with minutely precise details. Casting bronze or precious metals typically involves several steps, including forming a mold around the sculptured form; detaching the mold (in two or more sections); coating its down. Pressure Pipe Ductile iron pipe shipments are forecast to increase from 2.16 million tons in 2005 to 2.37 million tons in 2015, a 0.9% per year increase. A high of 2.3 million tons is forecast for 2008. Exports continue to grow based on the strength of the euro and yen. Metalworking Machinery & Equipment This industry is composed of four major classifications of users of metal castings, including machine tools, dies and tools, rolling mill rolling mill: see steel. machinery and other metalworking machinery. After five years of steady decline, the metalworking machinery industry slightly rebounded and showed a gain of 5% in 2004. A 5% gain in value of shipments is expected in 2006. Forecast--Shipments of machine tool castings dropped to a low of 50,000 tons in 2003 but are expected to rise to a high of 64,000 tons in 2008. The consumption of steel and ductile iron castings in all metalworking machinery also has dropped and is forecast to continue at low levels. Carbon and low alloy rolls usage, normally at 4.2 tons per 1,000 tons of raw steel produced, has been reduced to 1.5 tons. Power Hand Tools The power tool market continues to be a growth market for both aluminum and magnesium castings. Forecast--Aluminum die castings die casting Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. alone are expected to grow 3.3% in 2006 to 31,000 tons. Sand and permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. aluminum also is expected to rise to 14,000 tons per year. Magnesium casting usage is forecast to rise to 12,000 tons in 2006. Special industry Machinery The five industries that have the most economical impact on the special machinery sector are packaging, food products, paper, printing and textiles. Machinery used for the manufacture of cement cement, binding material used in construction and engineering, often called hydraulic cement, typically made by heating a mixture of limestone and clay until it almost fuses and then grinding it to a fine powder. , wood products, glass, clay, rubber, cigarettes and shoes also is included. Forecast--Gray iron castings rebounded in 2004 to 211,000 tons after three down years of shipments for special machinery. A short-term growth of 8.8% is forecast to 236,000 tons by 2008. For ductile iron, casting shipments continue to grow based on conversion of some applications from gray iron. A 5.7% growth is expected in 2006 to 112,000 tons, followed by a continued annual gain to 125,000 tons by 2008. Stainless steel stainless steel: see steel. stainless steel Any of a family of alloy steels usually containing 10–30% chromium. The presence of chromium, together with low carbon content, gives remarkable resistance to corrosion and heat. alloys This is a list of alloys for which an article exists in Wikipedia (or is proposed but not yet written). They are grouped by base metal, in order of increasing atomic number. Within these headings they are in no particular order. CF8M and CF8 make up 70% of the market for corrosion resistant steels and are mainly used in parts for food products machinery. A good short-term growth of more than 12% to 19,000 tons is forecast for 2008. Heat-resistant steel castings are expected to grow 25% to 9,000 tons by 2008. Pumps & Compressors An increase in highway construction, bridge repair and public works (water and sewage treatment Sewage treatment Unit processes used to separate, modify, remove, and destroy objectionable, hazardous, and pathogenic substances carried by wastewater in solution or suspension in order to render the water fit and safe for intended uses. ) increased demand for pumps and compressors in 2004. Oil field equipment demand has spurred growth and is forecast to continue its rise in 2006. Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments rebounded in 2004 to 228,000 tons. Short-term growth of 4.6% is expected for 2006 followed by a steady annual gain to a 270,000 ton peak year in 2008. Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to expand at an average annual rate of 2% per year. A short-term growth of 14% to 105,000 tons is forecast for 2008. Carbon and low alloy steel for pump applications are forecast to increase 6% in 2006 and 6% more by 2008 as usage in oil field and petrochemical petrochemical, any one of a large group of chemicals derived from a component of petroleum or natural gas. The cracking processes for manufacturing gasoline produce vast quantities of gaseous hydrocarbons. parts increase. Corrosion-resistant pump parts are forecast to rise 11% by 2008 in similar industries plus new applications in waste handling. Gears, Speed Changers
The Changers are a fictional group of anti-hero published by Wildstorm an imprint of DC Comics. & Power Transmission Equipment This classification is composed of establishments engaged in manufacturing mechanical power transmission equipment and parts for industrial machinery and includes such applications as gears, sprockets, pulleys, sheaves sheaves 1 n. Plural of sheaf. sheaves Noun the plural of sheaf sheaves sheaf and other parts that transmit To send data over a communications line. See transfer. power. Forecast--After three relatively poor years, gray iron shipments increased to 107,000 tons in 2004 and 112,000 tons in 2005. A 2% increase is forecast for 2006 to 114,000 tons. Based on increased use of austempered ductile iron as a replacement of forged forge 1 n. 1. A furnace or hearth where metals are heated or wrought; a smithy. 2. A workshop where pig iron is transformed into wrought iron. v. gears and shafts, ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to rise to 29,000 tons in 2006, followed by a steady increase in the next few years to 32,000 tons by 2008. Refrigeration refrigeration, process for drawing heat from substances to lower their temperature, often for purposes of preservation. Refrigeration in its modern, portable form also depends on insulating materials that are thin yet effective. , Air Conditioning air conditioning, mechanical process for controlling the humidity, temperature, cleanliness, and circulation of air in buildings and rooms. Indoor air is conditioned and regulated to maintain the temperature-humidity ratio that is most comfortable and healthful. & Heating Equipment The industry is expected to show a constant-dollar increase of 4% in 2006 based on an increase in housing starts. Forecast--Gray iron shipments continue to be 30,000 tons off the highs of 1999 and 2000 due to the conversion of applications to aluminum and a rise in imports. A 1% increase to 124,000 tons in 2006 is expected, despite an increase in imports to 34,000 tons, 25% of demand. A long-term increase of 0.7% per year is forecast. Ductile iron shipments are forecast to increase 2.5% in 2006 to 41,000 tons. Aluminum die castings, which approximate 80% of the total aluminum usage, are predicted to rise to 44,000 tons in 2006, an increase of 4% more than 2005. Die castings have replaced iron castings in scroll To continuously move forward, backward or sideways through the text and images on screen or within a window. Scrolling implies continuous and smooth movement, a line, character or pixel at a time, as if the data were on a paper scroll being rolled behind the screen. See auto scroll. and other compressor compressor, machine that decreases the volume of air or other gas by the application of pressure. Compressor types range from the simple hand pump and the piston-equipped compressor used to inflate tires to machines that use a rotating, bladed element to achieve bodies. Electrical Equipment A piece of electrical equipment is a machine, powered by electricity and usually consists of an enclosure, a variety of electrical components and often a power switch. Examples of Electrical Equipment
The constant dollar value of shipments by the electrical transmission, distribution and industrial equipment industries is expected to increase 5% in 2006. The motor and generator industry also is expected to expand by 5%. Forecast--The use of gray iron is forecast to continue to decline as conversion to aluminum increases along with imports. Gray iron shipments are expected to drop to 54,000 tons in 2006 and decline in the long term to 39,000 tons in 2015. Aluminum die castings in electric motors are forecast to increase to 35,000 tons in 2006 and rise to 38,000 tons by 2008. The use of zinc zinc, metallic chemical element; symbol Zn; at. no. 30; at. wt. 65.38; m.p. 419.58°C;; b.p. 907°C;; sp. gr. 7.133 at 25°C;; valence +2. Zinc is a lustrous bluish-white metal. It is found in Group 12 of the periodic table. and lead die castings in fittings, pole line hardware, plugs, switches, sockets, fixtures and other electrical applications is expected to increase to 36,000 tons in 2006, but drop to 31,000 tons in later years based on conversion to plastics. Household Appliances Housing starts are forecast to rise 4.5% in 2006 and spur growth in appliance A stand-alone hardware device or software environment dedicated to a specific task. See hardware appliance and software appliance. production. Forecast--Aluminum castings are forecast to increase to 74,000 tons in 2006 and continue growth to 78,000 by 2008. Two-thirds of shipments are die castings. Railroad Freight car deliveries, which dropped to a low of 18,000 in 2002, increased steadily to reach 55,000 in 2005. It is expected that deliveries will approximate 60,000 in 2006 and continue near that amount to 2008. Forecast--Carbon and low alloy steel railroad castings declined to 250,000 tons in 2002, rebounded to 360,000 and 440,000 tons in 2003 and 2004, and are forecast to rise to 560,000 tons in 2006. Instruments This classification includes those establishments engaged in manufacturing engineering Manufacturing engineering Engineering activities involved in the creation and operation of the technical and economic processes that convert raw materials, energy, and purchased items into components for sale to other manufacturers or into end products for and scientific instruments, measuring and controlling instruments, optical and analytical analytical, analytic pertaining to or emanating from analysis. analytical control control of confounding by analysis of the results of a trial or test. instruments and photographic equipment. A long-term growth of 3.5% per year is forecast. Forecast--Aluminum castings are expected to increase from 120,000 tons in 2005 to 142,000 tons in 2015. Sand cast aluminum is expected to grow to 73,000 tons by 2008. This article was adapted from the 2005 AFS A distributed file system for large, widely dispersed Unix and Windows networks from Transarc Corporation, now part of IBM. It is noted for its ease of administration and expandability and stems from Carnegie-Mellon's Andrew File System. AFS - Andrew File System Metalcasting Forecast and Trends Report. For more information, contact AFS Special Publications at 800/537-4237 or www.afsinc.org/estore. Capacity Utilization Capacity Utilization measures the rate at which a firm makes use of their capital productive capacities, such as factories and machinery. Capacity Utilization generally rises when the economy is healthy and falls when demand softens. The metalcasting industry has undergone a tremendous change in the last 50 years caused by many technological and economic factors. In 1955, there were 6,150 metalcasting facilities in the U.S. It is estimated that the industry will decline to 2,336 plants in 2006. of which 80% will have fewer than 100 employees. Despite some new and expanded facilities, it is estimated that a loss of casting supply of 420,000 tons occurred in 2005 vs. 2001. Table A indicates the forecast capacity and utilization rates. A total of 3 million tons of surplus supply is forecast. Table A. Capacity & Utilization forecast for 2006 Metal Capacity (Tons) Utilization (%) Iron 11,330,000 85 Steel 1,450,000 87 Aluminum 2,920,000 80 Copper Base 390,000 84 Magnesium 150,000 87 Zinc/Lead 390,000 87 Other Nonferrous 80,000 76 Investment 220,000 86 TOTAL 16,930,000 84 About the Author A 50-year metalcasting industry veteran, Ken Kirgin founded Stratecasts Inc. in the early 1980s to provide domestic and international forecasting and trends analysis and strategic planning Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy, including its capital and people. . For More Information "39th Census of World Casting Production--2004," MODERN CASTING, December 2005, p. 27-29.
Table 1. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Gray Iron Castings
NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term
Growth '04/'08 AGR (*)
234110 Municipal +6.0% +0.7%
34910 Soil Pipe -12.5% -4.0%
331511 Ingot Molds 0.0% -3.5%
332998 Sanitary/Radiator -10.6% -4.0%
33291 Valves/Fittings +7.2% +0.5%
333618 Internal Combustion -11% -1.9%
33311 Farm Equipment -5.8% -1.8%
333120 Construction Equip. +3.9% +0.3%
333512 Machine Tool +6.7% +0.3%
33329 Special Industry +8.8% +0.2%
33391 Pumps/Compressors +13.9% +0.5%
3334 Refrigeration/AC +0.6% +0.7%
333512 Electrical -8.9% -3.6%
3352 Household Appliances -11.1% -6.5%
336111,2 Light Vehicles -6.9% -1.5%
33612 Med. To Hvy. Trucks -21.0% -1.4%
TOTAL +2.8% -0.5%
NAICS Forecast Factors
234110 Housing Start Growth (2.8%/Yr);
Imports 34% of Demand;
Conversion to Ductile Iron
40,000 tons/year
34910 Replacement by Plastics
331511 Continuous Cast Steel at 98%;
Mini-Mills-No Blast Furnaces
332998 Replacement by Plastic
33291 Growth in Housing Starts;
Loss to Plastic & Ductile Iron;
Imports at 37% of Demand;
Gain vs. Malleable
333618 Diesel Engine Casting Imports
Engines >50% of Domestic Demand;
360,000 tons/year imported
33311 Growth in Farm Mach.-1%/Yr.;
Conversion to Ductile Iron;
Imports Up/Weights Down
333120 Growth in Building Activity;
Exports of Machinery Rise;
Loss to Ductile Iron
333512 A 58% Loss in Demand;
Industry Moved Off Shore
33329 Conversion to Ductile Iron Machinery;
Loss to Foreign Mfgrs.
33391 Surge in '06 & '07;
Conversion to Ductile Iron;
Oil Equipment Up
3334 Loss to Imports
333512 Loss to Aluminum/Imports
3352 Loss to Plastics/Aluminum
336111,2 Loss to Aluminum;
Loss to Plastics/Imports
33612 Growth in Truck/Trailer;
Peak Year in 2005
TOTAL Loss 100,000 tons by 2008;
Loss of 450,000 in 10 yrs.
* Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2005-2015
Table 2. Short- & Long-Term Summary for Ductile Iron Casting Shipments
NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term
Growth '04/'08 AGR (*)
33291 Valves/Fittings +8.4% +1.0%
332996 Pressure Pipe +6.5% +0.9%
33361 Int. Comb. Engines +10.5% +0.9%
33311 Farm Equipment +7.7% +1.2%
333120 Construction Equip. +6.7% +1.8%
33329 Special Industry +17.9% +2.1%
33391 Pump/Compressors +14.1% +2.2%
333612 Gears, Power Trans. +14.3% +1.7%
336111,2 Light Vehicles -2.4% -1.0%
336212 Med. To Hvy. Truck -4.0% -0.6%
TOTAL +5.0% +0.6%
NAICS Forecast Factors
33291 Industry Growth;
Replacement of Malleable/GI;
Imports Up (100,000-T)
332996 Building Activity Growth Up;
Exports Up; Loss to PVC
33361 Imports Increase
33311 Parallels Industry Growth;
Replace Gray Iron
333120 Replace GI/Steel/Malleable;
New Municipal Parts
33329 Replace Gray Iron Machinery;
Peak in 2008
33391 Replacement of Steel/GI
333612 Growth in ADI; Imports Up
336111,2 Loss to AI in Suspension and
Differential Parts; ADI Growth;
Repl. Malleable;
Some Crankshaft Loss to Forgings;
Imports Rise
336212 Truck & Trailer Production;
Peak in 2005;
Repl. Of Steel & Malleable
TOTAL Gain 230,000 tons by 2008
* Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2005-2015
Table 3. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Steel Castings
NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term
Growth '04/'08 AGR (*)
33291 Valves/Fittings +0.1% -0.4%
333120 Construction Equip. +0.0% -0.4%
333131 Mining Machinery +5.0% -0.5%
333132 Oil Field Equip. +5.0% -2.0%
333911 Pumps +6.0% +1.1%
33612 Trucks & Military -8.3% -6.7%
3365 Railroad +9.6% -0.9%
TOTAL +5.0% -0.8%
NAICS Forecast Factors
33291 Imports High;
Growth in Stainless Applications
333120 Loss to Ductile Iron
333131 Imports Up
333132 Peak in '04/'06; High Oil Prices
333911 Petrochemical; Chemical Up
33612 Substitution by Ductile Iron
3365 Freight Car Deliveries High In
Short Term
TOTAL Gain 60,000 Tons by 2008
Dependent on Railroad
* Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2005-2015
Table 4. Short & Long-Term Market Summary for Aluminum Castings
NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term
Growth '04/'08 AGR (*)
33361 Internal Combustion +8.4% +2.2%
333991 Power Tools +4.7% +0.7%
33341 Computer/Office -3.6% -3.8%
3334 Refrigeration/AC +13.2% +2.5%
334514 Meters & Regulators +10.0% +0.6%
3352 Household Appliance +4.2% +1.1%
3361 Motor Vehicles +6.0% +1.7%
3364 Aircraft & Parts +6.4% +1.4%
3345 Instruments +10.8% +1.7%
3421 Marine & Other +12.0% +1.9%
TOTAL +8.2% +1.6%
NAICS Forecast Factors
33361 Growth in Lawn/Garden &
Sport Engine Vehicles
333991 Loss to Magnesium/Plastics
33341 Loss to Plastic; Decline in Main Frames
3334 Replacement of Gray Iron
334514 Growth in Housing Starts;
Loss to Plastics
3352 Replacement of Gray Iron;
Loss to Plastics
3361 Conversion of Blocks, Heads,
Suspension & Differential
Parts to Aluminum;
Growth to 280 lbs. AI/ Vehicle;
Loss to Plastic/Magnesium
3364 Loss to Titanium, Imports
3345 Parallels Industry Growth
3421 Growth Market
TOTAL Gain 190,000 tons '05/'08
* Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2005-2015
Table 5. Short-& Long-Term Market Summary for Copper-Base Casting
Shipments
NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term
Growth '04/'08 AGR (*)
332913 Plumbing/Sanitary -3.8% -4.2%
332911 Industrial Valves +5.8% -2.1%
332510 Marine +5.3% +1.5%
TOTAL +6.2% -0.9%
NAICS Forecast Factors
332913 Loss to Plastics/Imports
332911 Imports Gain
332510 High Market Gain
TOTAL Gain 20,000 tons by 2008
* Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) 2005-2015
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Printer friendly
Cite/link
Email
Feedback
Reader Opinion