Casting imports to U.S. approach 3 million tons: forecast shows continued growth of imports beyond 2005.Editor's Note Editor's Note (foaled in 1993 in Kentucky) is an American thoroughbred Stallion racehorse. He was sired by 1992 U.S. Champion 2 YO Colt Forty Niner, who in turn was a son of Champion sire Mr. Prospector and out of the mare, Beware Of The Cat. Trained by D. : Casting Market Trends usually appears as a quarterly column in MODERN CASTING. Due to the interest our audience has in trade issues and foreign competition, this installment of the column has been expanded and turned into a feature article. Based on a recent analysis of casting demand in the U.S., Stratecasts forecasts an increase in casting imports to the U.S. in 2005 to 2.98 million tons, which equates to 19.2% of casting demand. Imports of gray iron castings are expected to rise to more than 1.5 million tons, 26.7% of demand, while diecast aluminum imports are estimated to reach 20.9% of demand. Market sectors such as valves and fittings, diesel engines, municipal and street construction, construction machinery and equipment, and motor vehicle are to he most effected by the rise. A continued weak dollar is expected to spur the increase of casting exports to 1.8 million tons in 2005. 11.4% of demand. Exports of farm and construction machinery and equipment have increased the demand for metal castings Metal casting A metal-forming process whereby molten metal is poured into a cavity or mold and, when cooled, solidifies and takes on the characteristic shape of the mold. in these market sectors. Exports and Imports To determine casting demand, Stratecasts conducts interviews with a representative sample of casting end users within each market segment for all cast metals. To convert demand to casting shipments by U.S. metalcasters, estimates of casting imports and exports must be made. In the development of casting forecasts for the next 10 years, an analysis of imports and exports has been completed. A summary of this analysis for 2005 is shown in Table 1. Approximately 3 million tons of metal casting imports from foreign competitors are forecasted for 2005. These imports cover many market sectors. The sectors that have the highest percentage of import to demand ratios are internal combustion engines Internal combustion engine A prime mover, the fuel for which is burned within the engine, as contrasted to a steam engine, for example, in which fuel is burned in a separate furnace. including diesel engines, motor vehicles including passenger cars, light trucks and medium to heavy tracks, municipal castings including street castings such as frames, grates and covers, and valves and fittings. Table 2 summarizes the 2005 import forecast to the U.S. Following is a look by major market. Municipal--It is forecast that 110,000 tons of manhole covers, frames, grates and other municipal castings are to be imported, primarily from India, to coastal regions of this country. Most U.S. coastal metalcasters have shut down and some are now buying and selling Indian castings. Another 158,000 tons of cast pipe, hydrant castings, fittings and other construction cast parts are forecast as imports in 2005. Valves and Fittings--It is forecast that 124,000 tons of gray iron, 92,000 tons of ductile iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. , 13,000 tons of carbon and low alloy steel Low alloy steel is steel alloyed with other elements, usually molybdenum, manganese, chromium, vanadium, silicon, boron or nickel, in amounts of up to 10% by weight to improve the hardenability of thick sections. , and 30,000 tons of copper base alloy alloy (ăl`oi, əloi`) [O. Fr.,=combine], substance with metallic properties that consists of a metal fused with one or more metals or nonmetals. valves and fittings are to be imported in 2005. In addition, 16,000 tons of malleable iron (Metal.) iron sufficiently pure or soft to be capable of extension under the hammer; also, specif., a kind of iron produced by removing a portion of the carbon or other impurities from cast iron, rendering it less brittle, and to some extent malleable. threaded pipe A threaded pipe is a pipe with screw-threaded ends for assembly. Threads are generally slightly conical rather than cylindrical (like a bolt or power screw). As a result a threaded pipe joint is much like a conical plug plugging a conical hole. fittings are expected to be imported from Thailand, Taiwan, and other Asiatic and Brazilian companies This is a list of major companies based in Brazil. Please note that the list is highly incomplete and does not have thousands of companies of different sizes. Links should only point to the Wikipedia article, and not to a web page URL. . Most of these cast parts are imported as finished parts and not often reported as castings in government statistics. It is estimated that imports amount to 33% of the total demand for cast valves and fittings in the U.S. Internal Combustion combustion, rapid chemical reaction of two or more substances with a characteristic liberation of heat and light; it is commonly called burning. The burning of a fuel (e.g., wood, coal, oil, or natural gas) in air is a familiar example of combustion. Engine--Imports of blocks and heads from Brazilian and Mexican foundries at prices that appear to be in the "dumping dumping, selling goods at less than the normal price, usually as exports in international trade. It may be done by a producer, a group of producers, or a nation. " range have forced the closing of major U.S. metalcastens and increased the dependence on offshore supply. It is forecast that 350,000 tons of gray iron engine castings, 50% of demand, will be imported in 2005. Cost analyses of blocks supplied to major U.S. engine producers have indicated that the castings are supplied at prices below prices in their own country and thus in violation of current dumping regulations. No actions, however, have been taken against these foreign exporters. Farm Machinery & Equipment--It is forecast that 76,000 tons of gray iron and 23,000 tons of ductile iron, exclusive of engine castings, are to be imported in 2005 from China and other Asiatic countries. Construction, Mining & Oil Field--It is forecast that 142,000 tons of ferrous ferrous (fĕr`əs), iron in the +2 valence state. Containing or having to do with iron. The difference between ferrous and ferric is the number of valence electrons they contain (ferrous contains two and ferric contains three), which castings are to he imported in 2005 for consumption in machinery and equipment produced in the U.S. for these industries. This is 15% of the demand for iron and steel castings Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. . Pumps & Compressors--Approximately 43,000 tons of gray iron and 10,000 tons of ductile iron castings are purchased offshore as yaw yaw, in aviation: see airplane; airfoil. See pitch-yaw-roll. castings or partially machined parts. Refrigeration refrigeration, process for drawing heat from substances to lower their temperature, often for purposes of preservation. Refrigeration in its modern, portable form also depends on insulating materials that are thin yet effective. & Air Conditioning--U.S. manufacturers are expected to buy 31,000 tons of gray iron compressor compressor, machine that decreases the volume of air or other gas by the application of pressure. Compressor types range from the simple hand pump and the piston-equipped compressor used to inflate tires to machines that use a rotating, bladed element to achieve and other castings in 2005 from foreign casting suppliers. Diecast aluminum imports are forecast to grow to 9,000 tons. Light Vehicles Led by blocks and heads from Mexico and Brazil and rotors from Canada and Mexico, 369,000 tons of gray iron cast parts are expected to be imported in 2005. Ductile iron imports, led by exhaust Exhaust may refer to: In mathematics:
Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. are predicted to exceed 160,000 tons in 2005, while approximately 135,000 tons of aluminum permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. and sand castings Casting is the process of production of objects by pouring molten material into a cavity called a mold which is the negative, or mirror image of the object, and allowing it to cool and solidify. , including automotive engine Automotive engine The component of the motor vehicle that converts the chemical energy in fuel into mechanical energy for power. The automotive engine also drives the generator and various accessories, such as the air-conditioning compressor and power-steering blocks and cylinder cylinder, in mathematics, surface generated by a line moving parallel to a given fixed line and continually intersecting a given fixed curve called the directrix; each line of the family of lines forming the cylinder is called a ruling, or generator. heads, are expected to be imported from Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Germany and other European countries. Railroad--It is forecast that 96,000 tons of carbon and low alloy steel castings are to be purchased from China and other foreign suppliers. Import to demand ratios have been established for all market segments tar all metals. Ratios for some major market sectors are shown in Fig. 1. Key Players Based on Stratecasts' analysis of individual market sectors, Fig. 2 depicts the estimated breakdown of casting imports in the U.S. by exporting countries. An effort has been made to include imported finished and partially machined cast parts. Following is a look at the key countries exporting castings to the U.S. With each country, a forecast of production is presented as well as specific details about the country's economy. China * GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. is expected to rise 9% in 2004, following 8% increases for the past 2 years. * The currency exchange rate is pegged peg n. 1. a. A small cylindrical or tapered pin, as of wood, used to fasten things or plug a hole. b. A similar pin forming a projection that may be used as a support or boundary marker. 2. to the U.S. dollar at 8.78 Yuan/$. * Exports of raw castings, and partially or finished machined castings to the U.S., are estimated at 710,000 tons in 2005. Total casting exports, including machined parts, are estimated to be near 2.8 million tons, 13% of total casting shipments. * Domestic motor vehicle production, the largest consumer of castings in the Republic of China; has increased from 2 million cars and trucks in 2000 to 2.3 million in 2001, and subsequently to 3.25 million in 2002. An over-capacity in supply is predicted. * Though labor rates in metalcasting plants are reported to average below $1/hr, cost studies of some castings exported to the U.S. indicate that prices delivered are below costs and thus are possibly being "dumped dump v. dumped, dump·ing, dumps v.tr. 1. To release or throw down in a large mass. 2. a. ." India * GDP is forecast to rise 8% in 2005, up from 7.6% in 2003. * Currency exchange rates are expected to average near 45 Rs/$ in 2004. * Exports to the U.S. are forecast at 251,000 tons in 2005. * Motor vehicle production, consumer of most iron and aluminum castings, has increased from 806,000 cars and trucks in 2000 to 852,000 in 2001, and up again to 892,000 in 2002. * The municipal casting industry in the U.S. has constantly fought the "dumping" practices of Indian companies This is a list of major companies based in India. Please note that the list is highly incomplete and does not have every company of all sizes. More information about the companies can be found in the links to the company articles. A
Korea * GDP is expected to rise by 3% in 2005, up from 2.8% in 2003. * Currency exchange rate has risen to 1160 Won/$. * Casting imports to the U.S. are estimated to be close to 180,000 tons in 2005. * Labor rates are forecast at $5.70/hr., including fringe Fringe (optics) One of the light or dark bands produced by interference or diffraction of light. Distances between fringes are usually very small, because of the short wavelength of light. , at the forecast currency exchange rate. * The relatively weak rate has kept Korea competitive and active in exporting castings to the U.S. and Europe * Motor vehicle production in Korea increases each year and has now reached 3.1 million vehicles per year. Japan * GDP predicted to increase 3%, up from 2.3% in 2003 after many recessive recessive /re·ces·sive/ (re-ses´iv) 1. tending to recede; in genetics, incapable of expression unless the responsible allele is carried by both members of a pair of homologous chromosomes. 2. years. * The strong Yen, now 109, is expected to weaken against the dollar to 115. * Casting imports to the U.S. are estimated between 170,000 and 190,000 tons. * Labor rates in Japanese foundries are forecast at $23.10/hr. at present exchange rates. * Motor vehicle production rebounded slightly in 2002 to 10.26 million vehicles. Other ASiatic Taiwan and Thailand have been active in exporting iron valves and fittings and other castings to the U.S. Anti-dumping tariffs have been levied on malleable malleable /mal·le·a·ble/ (mal´e-ah-b'l) susceptible of being beaten out into a thin plate. mal·le·a·ble adj. 1. Capable of being shaped or formed, as by hammering or pressure. fittings from Thailand. Mexico * The real GDP Real GDP This inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price", "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP". dropped to 1.2% in 2003 and is forecast to grow 3% in 2005. * The currency exchange rate is now up to 11.5 pesos to the dollar. * Casting imports to the U.S. are estimated at 292,000 tons for 2005. * Labor rates in major metalcasting plants are estimated at $2/hr. * Motor vehicle production in Mexico was down slightly in 2002 to 1.8 million vehicles, however, an increase to 2.0 million vehicles is expected. * It is reported that gray iron diesel engine castings are being delivered to U.S. manufacturers at extremely low prices. This practice ultimately led to the closing of U.S. casting facilities. Brazil * The GDP weakened weak·en tr. & intr.v. weak·ened, weak·en·ing, weak·ens To make or become weak or weaker. weak  en·er n. to 0.1% in 2003.
* The Real has weakened to 3.1 R/$ in 2004. * Casting imports to the U.S. are forecast at 235,000 tons for 2005. * Labor rates in Brazilian foundries now average about $3.50/hr. * Motor vehicle production reached 1.8 million vehicles in 2002. * Brazilian metalcasters are competing with Mexican metalcasters in the shipment of diesel engine blocks and heads to U.S. engine manufacturers. Delivered prices of many castings can possibly be classified in the "dumping" category. Europe * The Euro is now strong at 1.20 $/Eu, but ix expected to weaken slightly in 2005 to 1.15. Motor vehicle production in Western Europe Western Europe The countries of western Europe, especially those that are allied with the United States and Canada in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (established 1949 and usually known as NATO). stayed near 17.3 million for the 3 years to 2002. Exports Based on the forecasted currency exchange rates in other regions of the world, it is expected that exports of castings and finished cast parts from the U.S. (Table 1) will reach 1.77 million tons in 2005. U.S. companies are expected to be competitive with European companies It may never be fully completed or, depending on its its nature, it may be that it can never be completed. However, new and revised entries in the list are always welcome. This is a list of companies from the countries in the European Union. in markets throughout the world
Table 1. U.S. Metal Casting Forecast for 2005 (000 tons)
Metal Demand Shipments Imports Exports
Gray Iron 5,684 4,807 1,518 641
Ductile Iron 4,621 4,591 508 478
Carbon/LA Steel 1,086 1,018 184 116
Aluminum Die Castings 1,528 1,415 319 206
Aluminum PM/Sand 1,120 1,041 224 145
Copper Base 346 323 64 41
Other 1,094 1,072 162 140
Total 15,479 14,267 2,979 1,767
Table 2. 2005 Forecast of Casting Imports by Major Market Sectors (000
tons)
Ductile Copper
Marker Sector Gray Iron Iron Steel Aluminum Base
Municipal Total 268 -- -- -- --
--only frames,
covers, etc. 110 -- -- -- --
Valves & Fittings 124 92 31 -- 30
Internal Combustion
Engines 350 14 1 18 --
Farm Equipment 76 23 -- -- --
Construction/Mining/
Oil Field 57 40 45 -- --
Pumps/Compressors 43 10 2 -- --
Refrigeration/AC 31 5 -- 12 --
Light Vehicle 369 250 -- 426 --
Medium/HeavyTruck 43 41 8 -- --
Railroad -- -- 96 -- --
Fig. 2. This chart shows estimated imports of metal castings by
exporting countries n 2005 (includes raw, partially machined and
completed cast parts).
Country/Region Tons % of Total Imports
China 710,000 23.8%
Other Asiatic (*) 486,000 16.3%
Mexico 292,000 9.8%
Brazil 235,000 7.9%
Europe 223,000 7.5%
Canada 343,000 11.5%
Other 439,000 14.8%
India 251,000 8.4%
Total 2,979,000 100.0%
* includes Japan, Korea, Thailand and Taiwan
Notes: Table made from pie chart.
Fig. 1 Shown are the import to demand ratios of major casting
consuming market sectors
Ductile Iron Pump/Compressor 0.10
Aluminum Diecast Internal Combustion Engine 0.15
Steel Construction & Mining 0.15
Steel Railroad 0.18
Ductile Iron Light Vehicle 0.20
Copper-Base Valves 0.25
Gray Iron Light Vehicle 0.28
Malleable Iron Valves & Fittings 0.35
Steel Valves 0.35
Gray Iron Valves & Fittings 0.37
Gray Iron Diesel Engine 0.50
Notes: Table made from bar graph.
China
Casting production is forecast as follows (000 tons):
Metal 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Gray Iron 5,649 9,002 9,840 10,800 11,800 12,930 14,100
Ductile Iron 2,334 2,730 2,995 3,300 3,630 3,990 4,400
Aluminum 780 850 970 1,100 1,279 1,480 1,700
Steel 1,543 1,580 1,692 1,770 1,850 1,940 2,000
India
Casting production is estimated as follows (000 tons):
Metal 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006
Gray Iron 2,300 2,370 2,371 2,500 2,700
Ductile Iron 250 270 300 340 380
Aluminum 20 30 50 70 100
Steel 320 330 325 360 390
Korea
Casting production is forecast as follows (000 tons):
Metal 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006
Gray Iron 905 870 925 1,020 1,000
Ductile Iron 496 480 534 580 700
Steel 139 130 145 160 180
Aluminum 41 40 46 55 80
Japan
Casting production is forecast as follows (000 tons):
Metal 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Gray Iron 2,641 2,500 2,351 2,300 2,200
Ductile Iron 1,938 1,860 1,742 1,900 2,100
Aluminum 1,204 1,180 1,217 1,260 1,400
Steel 264 230 232 250 250
Mexico
Casting shipments are forecast as follows (000 tons):
Metal 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006
Gray Iron 631 704 650 760 790 850
Ductile Iron 44 56 45 175 200 280
Aluminum 454 600 540 480 550 700
Brazil
Casting shipments have been forecast as follows (000 tons):
Metal 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006
Gray Iron 971 1,168 950 1,219 1,200 1,300
Ductile Iron 361 379 350 494 400 500
Aluminum 98 108 100 122 140 180
Europe
Western European casting production is estimated as
follows (000 tons):
Metal 1999 2000 2001 2002 2006
Gray Iron 6,843 6,830 6,490 6,645 6,600
Ductile Iron 4,556 4,431 4,269 4,650 5,241
Aluminum 1,988 2,223 2,418 2,455 2,600
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