Carnegie Commission says 'mass violence is not inevitable.'.

In December 1997, after a comprehensive three-year study of violent conflict, costing some $9.5 million and involving a large number of international scholars and policy makers, the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict released a 257-page, final report. Taking a long-term, global view of violent conflicts and utilizing a functional health policy model for disease prevention, the report examines the principal causes of deadly ethnic, nationalist and religious conflicts, both between and within States, and seeks to determine the requirements of an effective system for preventing mass violence. It also looks at ways in which international organizations, and the United Nations in particular, can contribute to developing a coherent international system of non-violent conflict prevention. The three major conclusions offer a cautiously hopeful view on the possibilities of preventing deadly conflict: mass violence is not inevitable; there is an urgent need to prevent deadly conflict; and successful preventive action is possible.

The report emphasizes three preventive imperatives, the first two under the principle of operational prevention: preventing the emergence of violence through early warning and effective reaction to signs of an immediate crisis; and preventing the spread of violence through extended efforts to resolve underlying root causes of violence. The third strategy, under the principle of structural prevention, aims to prevent the recurrence of violence through international and regional arrangements and through social development that establish long-term conditions of security, well-being and justice.

The Carnegie Corporation will spend the next two years promoting the Commission's findings in an effort to effect internationally a large-scale shift in the political will of Governments towards preventing violent conflict.

The Commission, set up in May 1994, was co-chaired by Cyrus R. Vance, former United States Secretary of State, and David A. Hamburg, President Emeritus of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Among its members were 16 eminent international leaders and scholars with long experience in conflict prevention and resolution. They were supported by a distinguished 42-member Advisory Council.

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Creation of a "culture of prevention" was a "challenge the world can and must meet", Secretary-General Kofi Annan declared on 5 February in his address to a forum on "The Centrality of the United Nations to Prevention and the Centrality of Prevention to the United Nations" convened at Headquarters in connection with the final report of the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict.

For the United Nations, there was "no higher goal, no deeper commitment and no great ambition than preventing armed conflict", he stated. "The prevention of conflict begins and ends with the protection of human life and the promotion of human development. Ensuring human security is, in the broadest sense, the United Nations cardinal mission. Genuine and lasting prevention is the means to achieve that mission", the Secretary-General said.

However, "only when it is too late do we value prevention", he observed, adding that there were three main reasons for the failure of prevention: the reluctance of one or more parties to a conflict to accept external intervention of any kind; the lack of political will at the highest levels of the international community; and a lack of integrated conflict-prevention strategies within the United Nations system and the international community.

"Of all these, the will to act is the most important", Mr. Annan noted. "Without the political will to act when action is needed, without the will to answer the call that must be heeded, no amount of improved coordination or early warning will translate awareness into action", he stressed.

The policies of prevention - early warning, preventive diplomacy, preventive deployment and preventive disarmament - would succeed "only if root causes of conflict are addressed with the same will and wisdom", Mr. Annan stated.

"Poverty, endemic underdevelopment and weak or nonexistent institutions inhibit dialogue and invite the resort to violence. A long, quiet process of sustainable economic development, based on respect for human rights and legitimate government, is essential to preventing conflict", he said.

"Indeed, we have no excuses anymore. We have no excuses for inaction and no alibis for ignorance. Often, we know even before the very victims of conflict that they will be victimized. We know because our world now is one - in pain and in prosperity. No longer must the promise of prevention be a promise deferred. Too much is at stake, too much is possible, too much is needed.

"The founders of the United Nations drew up our Charter with a sober view of human nature. They had witnessed the ability of humanity to wage a war of unparalleled brutality and unprecedented cruelty. They had witnessed, above all, the failure of prevention, when prevention was still possible and every signal pointed to war.

"Indeed, my vision of this great Organization is a United Nations that places prevention at the service of universal security.

"The achievement of human security in all its aspects - economic, political and social - will be the achievement of effective prevention.

"It will be the testament to succeeding generations that ours had the will to save them from the scourge of war."

RELATED ARTICLE: Preventing Deadly Conflict: Understanding the Problem

Some illustrations by the Commission

* Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, over 4 million people have been killed in violent conflicts.

* An estimated 90 per cent of those killed are civilians, mostly women and children.

* During the 1994 Rwandan genocide, some 800,000 people were killed in three months. It has been estimated that 5,000 troops could have averted this slaughter.

* International relief and reconstruction efforts over the three years following the Rwandan slaughter have cost over $2 billion. The estimated cost of a preventive intervention would have been one third of this amount.

* Today, 1 in 200 people is a refugee or a displaced person. Refugee population of 10,000 or more can be found in 70 countries in the world,

* In 1990, nearly 75 per cent of the world's refugees were Muslims.

* In Uganda, an AK-47 can be obtained for the price of a chicken. In Swaziland, the same weapon has sold for $6.

* Civil war is blamed for the abandonment of an estimated 80 per cent of Angola's agricultural land.

* In 1960, the income ratio of the richest 20 per cent and the poorest 20 per cent of the world's population was 30:1. In 1991, it had doubled to over 60:1.

* Less than one third of development assistance goes to the ten most populous countries - home to two thirds of the world's poor.

* Some 1.1 billion people, about 30 per cent of the developing world's population, live on $1 a day or less.

* Poverty has a woman's face: 70 per cent of the 1.3 billion people who live in poverty are female.

* In 1994, the world's supply of water per capita was only one third of what it was in 1970.

* By the year 2000, nearly half of the world's population will live in urban areas.

* The 50 poorest countries - home to 20 per cent of the world's population - now account for less than 2 per cent of global income, and their share continues to decrease.