Careers and opportunities 1993: employment outlook.

Change. That's the operative word for American business this year. With global markets in a state of flux, a new administration in place and the labor force in shock, the rules formerly governing the work ethic, as the average worker once knew it, have shifted--and they'll never be the same. And professionals unable to cope and produce in a changing workplace will find themselves going the way of the dinosaur: toward extinction.

Despite a pessimistic economic outlook for the first half of 1993, slow but steady growth best describes the comeback looming on the employment horizon. Keeping to his campaign promises, President Bill Clinton still pledges "to create millions of high-wage jobs and smooth our transition from a defense to a peacetime economy," and the wheels already seem to be in motion.

Sure, jobs are opening up out there, but they're not as plentiful, lucrative or easily obtainable as in years past. The fierce competition fostered by pitting too many unemployed workers against too few available positions makes it a buyer's market for employers. Today, resiliency, adaptability and versatility are the benchmarks against which otherwise qualified workers are judged. Professionals lacking these attributes simply need not apply.

Assessing The Industry

The casualties in the labor war have been many. Among firms publicly reporting staff reductions, 550,000 laborers (about 2,000 per work day) got the ax in 1991--five times the amount reported in 1989, according to Workplace Trends, an industry newsletter based in Rocky River, Ohio. And the bloodletting is not over yet. A look at actual and projected downsizings from the start of the decade through the mid-1990s by some of the nation's industry leaders puts the trend into perspective:

* Hughes Aircraft Co. announced plans to shed 4,000 workers last year, with projections to possibly bottom out at 12,000.

* American Express Co. has pared down its work force by 4,800, mostly through layoffs.

* IBM Corp. let go 40,000 workers in 1992, for a total of 100,000 since 1985, primarily in the mainframe divisions.

* Digital Equipment Corp. plans to cut 18,000 employees and close 165 facilities across the nation.

* McDonnell Douglas has downsized 22,000 employees since 1990.

* Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., projects it will streamline 4,800 jobs by mid-'93.

* General Motors Corp., the world's largest industrial company, intends to close 21 plants, putting 74,000 auto workers out of work by 1995.

And laborers who are employed are cautioned not to be lulled into a false sense of security. Remaining employable rather than just employed is their challenge, as companies are far more discriminating in their expenditures. Employers want the biggest bang for their bucks, and existing and future employees are no exception. Therefore, being the best at what you do, as well as being dexterous enough to handle additional responsibilities will give you added value and keep you high on your boss' "Most Wanted" list.

Projections by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) place nearly 25 million jobs back in the American economy by the year 2005. Some companies are already putting these predictions into action:

* Nissan Motor Corp. projects adding 1,700 additional workers to help assemble its new mid-size Stanza sedan.

* Microsoft Corp., the computer software maker, signed on 3,000 new employees in late 1991 and projected to increase that by 1,100-2,300 by mid-year last year.

* Fruit-of-the-loom Inc. sought 700 new workers last year to accommodate its expansion efforts.

* U.S. Healthcare Inc., a health maintenance organization, had an 8% increase in the number of its employees in 1991; the trend is expected to continue in 1992.

* PepsiCo Inc. probably will need 2,000 additional staffers to keep pace with its current rate of growth.

* Shearson Lehman Bros., the American Express Co. brokerage subsidiary, plans to add 600-1,000 salespeople to its task force.

* Johnson Controls Inc., a Milwaukee car-seat manufacturer, was expected to create 500 new jobs by the end of last year and 3,000 more by this year's end.

However, most of the proposed job openings are of a lesser-skilled, lower-paying variety than those lost by the white-collar managers and professionals, who were particularly hard hit by the latest labor rounds cutbacks. The number of available executive, administrative and managerial positions is expected to grow by 27%, or 3.4 million from 1990 through 2005. Yet these won't be nearly enough to compensate the nation's legion of displaced white-collar workers, nearly 1 million of whom found themselves jobless this time last year alone. Derryl L. Reed, president of the Chicago-based National Black MBA ion agrees: "We've seen a sharp increase in the number of our members who are unemployed or in transition between jobs. Things will get better, but definitely not in the short term."

While experts point to a decreased unemployment rate (7.4% at this writing, down from a peak of 10.8% in 1982), a closer look will caution labor watchers to hold their applause. Last year, 2 million laborers languished in unemployment for six months or more. And many job seekers who do eventually secure employment are now finding themselves underemployed, as desperation compels them to accept positions below their skill level, often at considerably less pay than their former position. Still others are settling for part-time, temporary or seasonal work as they struggle to keep their heads above water and to maintain some semblance of a reasonable standard of living.

But while change is a major labor watchword, some things have remained the same. Although they represent 11% of the nation's labor force, African-Americans register a 13.9% unemployment rate (compared with the numbers for whites, 85.4% and 6.5%, respectively), according to BLS figures released last November. The Census Bureau reports that black families with both spouses working made only $85 for every $100 earned by whites in 1990. In addition, the median income of full-time black female workers was only 90% of that earned by their white counterparts during the same period. Black men faced the same plight, earning just 73% of the wages tallied by white men.

"The economic malaise affecting African-Americans is a major concern to black workers at all levels," says Earl S. Washington, president of the Executive Leadership Council (ELC), a Washington, D.C.-based national organization of senior-level black executives. "Everyone is working overtime just to maintain their position in the market."

Where The Jobs Are--And Aren't

Of the 24.6 million projected jobs to be added to the market, the vast majority (23 million) will be in the service industries. The two largest components of this sector, health services and business services, together account for 6.1 million or about one-fourth of the projected job increases. Retail trade, government and finance, insurance and real estate will also be big contenders in luring job seekers with service experience. Construction, the only goods-producing sector slated for job growth, will add nearly 1 million positions to the employment rolls by 2005, as spending for additions and improvements to roads, bridges and other infrastructure is expected to increase. "President Clinton's proposed commitment to improving the nation's infrastructure has our members, who are at the front of the pack, very excitedly anticipating new opportunities in this area," says Morgan M. Watson, president of the National Association of Black Consulting Engineers, which is based in Washington, D.C.

Employment in the health and computer-related fields is projected to grow the fastest. The increasing number of elderly members of the population will provide great demand for the physical therapists, radiology technologists and technicians and medical assistants who service them. Increased demand for computer programmers, systems analysts and computer scientists reflects expanding needs for scientific research and applications in business automation, telecommunications technology and the development and updating of software systems.

Employment in the manufacturing industries, however, is experiencing drastic declines, with the bottom projected to fall out at 600,000 job losses by 2005. Close to two-thirds of these losses have already resulted from deep cuts in defense spending, with layoffs in such related industries as shipbuilding, aerospace, missile manufacture and navigation equipment, accounting for about 100,000 jobs lost since 1991.

Regional breakouts paint a picture of slight change regarding corporate downsizing activity. Recent findings by the American Management Association in New York show staff reductions easing in the New England, Mid-Atlantic, Midwestern and Southern regions from July 1991 through June 1992, a distinct shift from the layoffs reported by these regions at the height of the recession. But while the storm seems to be abating on the northern coast, it appears to have moved steadily west, with reported reductions up in the West and soaring in the Pacific region, which includes the desert southwestern states.

A city-by-city inspection, however, shows a sprinkling of bright spots in employment. Houston, for example, has regained all of the 221,000 jobs it lost between 1982 and 1987 and has even added an additional 52,000 workers to its payroll since 1990. And the BMW assembly plant slated to begin construction this spring in the Greenville-Spartanburg area of South Carolina is projected to boost employment by 10,000 workers within 20 years.

Although jobs at all levels of education and training are surfacing, opportunities for advancement into the higher-paying occupations will generally require post-secondary education.

Tracking Trends

As the work force adjusts to the shifting needs of its employers, innovative approaches to employment generally surface. The jobless also must be uniquely flexible, diversely skilled and self-sufficient moneymakers or savers to be viewed as worthwhile investments to their prospective employers. The late Dan Lacey, a noted workplace-issues guru and former publisher of the Workplace Trends, summarized the trend in one of his last interviews: "We've moved beyond the post World War II boom decades where a quasi-family relationship existed between employers and employees. Rather than looking toward a corporate parent for security, today's workers must view themselves as potential profit centers with a monetary value to their company." Brian S. McPherson, national director of public relations for the Washington, D.C.-based National Association of Black Accountants, concurs: "We're urging our members to become more self-sufficient, where their skills can be adapted to fit self-employment corporate staff work or consultancy assignments."

Displaced workers, and middle managers in particular, now know to read "layoffs" as "write-offs," as increasingly they find that the jobs they leave are quickly restructured or eliminated, significantly lessening their chances of being rehired. In the crunch of the recession, companies found they could still produce quality products with fewer, higher-skilled workers, so it's doubtful they'll add more fat to their new, streamlined employment ranks.

Much of the money saved on salaries is being pumped into training those employees now charged with picking up the slack of their downsized colleagues. Training magazine, a Minneapolis-based publication that tracks business training, estimates that 40.9 million workers received some type of formal training from their employer last year,to the tune of $45 billion. Clearly, both businesses and their workers realize that ongoing learning and development is crucial to career advancement and the honing of a primed and competitive work force.

Fewer workers are signing on with large corporations as full-time staffers, as they recognize the potential for employment, advancement and flexibility opportunities offered at smaller venues on a part-time or temporary basis. Outsourcing their talents allows laborers to stagger multiple assignments, gain diversified experience and get interim work when full-time offerings are lacking. On the other hand, companies are increasingly turning to outside contractors, freelancers and consultants to provide routine services, which can be done more cheaply and conveniently on an "as needed" basis. Everything from clerical services to cafeteria needs are being explored for the possibility of those tasks being farmed out to outside sources. Even medical treatment is now available on a "for hire" basis.

Last year's BLACK ENTERPRISE Employment Outlook forecast a declining corporate commitment to diversity issues. However, a cursory look at the past year's scorecard on that front doesn't bear this out. The implementation of diversity initiatives, in fact, is moving along at a robust clip within American corporations.

A close scrutiny of any confirmed commitment to equal employment opportunity and affirmative-action directives tells another story. While openly embracing diversity initiatives, companies' efforts to beef up or u date existing EEO and affirmative-action programs seem to have fallen by the wayside. A recent study by Michigan State University's Career Development and Placement Services division reports the need for continued aggressive prodding simply to have basic EEO and affirmative-action goals met by its surveyed employers. The study also noted a lack of management commitment to these directives, although improvements in emphasis have been observed.

Either by choice or through necessity, professionals are exploring start-up ventures as an increasingly popular option. The IRS charts a 23% increase in the amount of sole proprietorship forms filed for 1990, the most current year for which data are available. "I see more of our members starting their own businesses as they become less secure of their status within their current jobs," says the Black MBA's Derryl Reed. Rather than contend with the rigors and uncertainties of working for someone else, executives are jumping corporate ships in record numbers and going into business for themselves.

But entrepreneurship isn't for everyone. The start-up failure rate is prohibitive (nearly 50% within the first two to five years) and, though many executives are proven corporate whizzes, they often make lousy entrepreneurs because they lack the basic business management skills required to keep a business running.

Like it or not, for better or worse, the face of American business is undergoing extensive cosmetic surgery. Although often difficult during the transition stage, change generally brings with it new opportunities and fresh optimism for better times. Let's wait and see if this will prove true on the nation's employment front, too.