Canada's PM in control, for now

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government is guaranteed to survive a no-confidence vote Friday thanks to a divided center-left opposition, but his respite may be short-lived.

When Michael Ignatieff announced his Liberal Party would no longer prop up Harper's Conservatives when parliament returned from its summer break, most political commentators predicted Canadians would soon be headed to the polls.

It would be Canada's fourth election in five years.

And according to public opinion surveys, each party would return the approximate same number of MPs to parliament, and Harper would remain at the head of a minority Conservative government.

Since then, however, Harper "has taken the initiative (to avoid a ballot) and again become master of his House," Laval University political analyst Rejean Pelletier told AFP.

The prime minister's first act of the new parliamentary session was to propose more benefits for unemployed workers on Monday.

The move contradicted his conservative tenure but effectively silenced his critics and opposition parties.

Harper also announced a crucial no-confidence vote would take place Friday on stimulus measures in a budget implementation bill that all parties had previously supported amid an economic downturn, in order to test their resolve to try to topple him.

Two minor leftist parties -- the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois -- were quick to reverse course, saying they would now vote with the government, leaving the Liberal Party as the lone killjoy.

But it is likely to be a short reprieve for Harper, who is still expected to face another confidence test in October in which the Bloc Quebecois would probably side with the Liberals, Pelletier said.

To survive, the Conservatives need the support of only one of Canada's three opposition parties. And the New Democrats' position is still up in the air.

Sliding in the polls, the New Democrats have no interest in a return to the ballot box for now. An election would completely drain party coffers and fundraising -- challenging in the best of times and futile during a recession.

"Mr Harper has won this round," said Christian Dufour, politics professor at Montreal's school of public administration.

It was an easy hand to play, he added, contrasting the "disappointing" performance of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff since the former Harvard professor's vaunted political rise and takeover of his party in 2008.

If elections do come, Canadians could innovate and accept a center-leftist coalition led by the Liberals, Dufour suggested.

The latest survey puts the Conservatives in first place with 35.1 percent support, versus 29.9 for the Liberals. In accordance with Canadian political tradition, Harper would then get the first crack at forming a government.

It would be Harper's third minority government since 2006, Dufour noted, and Canadians weary of political instability could be convinced to accept a center-left coalition instead.

But as long as Quebec, which accounts for 25 percent of Canada's parliamentary precincts, continues to elect separatist Bloc MPs, Canada is very unlikely to see another majority government -- Liberal or Conservative -- anytime soon.