Canada's Oil Reserves Above Iraq's.

In 2002, Iraq was the world's second holder of proved oil reserves, at 112.5 bn barrels, compared to Saudi Arabia's 260 bn barrels-plus. However, in the Dec. 23, 2002 issue of the Oil & Gas Journal, proved oil reserves in Canada catapulted from an estimated 4.9 bn barrels in 2002 to 180 bn barrels in 2003.

A change of methodology in calculating oil reserves by the Oil & Gas Journal now includes western Canada's oil sands in its definition of proved oil reserves. Until then, oil sands were considered non-conventional and were not counted as proved oil reserves.

Dramatic reductions in development and production costs have brought oil sands into the realm of economic viability. It is estimated that there are about 1.7 trillion barrels of oil in the oil sands of Canada, and that about 15% (255 bn barrels) of the total oil in place is recoverable. Canada accounts for about 75% of the world's oil sand resources. Venezuela has larger reserves of bitumen in its Orinoco region. Other countries and regions that have significant, but more modest, oil sand resources include the US, China, the EE/FSU, the Caribbean Basin, and Pakistan.

Canada's production from oil sands is divided into two categories: "oil sands in situ", often referred to as bitumen; and "oil sands mining". These two categories reflect two methods of recovery.

The bitumen is extracted by injecting very hot steam into the rock formation to heat up the oil, lower its viscosity, and allow it to flow more like conventional oil. Slightly more than half (about 400,000 b/d) of Canadian oil sands production is derived from the more expensive "oil sands mining" method. Those deposits that are close enough to the surface are actually mined. Their supply costs are expressed as "full cycle" costs. They include all costs associated with exploration, development, and production; capital costs; operating costs; taxes and royalties; and a 10% real rate of return to the producer. Capital costs average $5 to $9/b, and operating costs average $8 to $12/b. Such costs are presented as a range, reflecting the variance in reservoir quality, depth, project size, and operating parameters.

The remainder of the supply cost is dominated by the cleaning and upgrading methods that are required to turn a very low quality hydrocarbon into a more conventional oil that can be accepted by a refinery. Such methods include the removal of sulfur, heavy metals, and non-combustible materials, as well as conversion to a more hydrogenated and lighter hydrocarbon. These costs are typically in the $3 to $5/b range. None of the aforementioned costs include transportation to market.

In the past summer, Suncor Energy opened the upgrading units of its Millennium Project in Alberta with production costs around $9/b. The company's short-term goal is to lower production costs to $5.50/b, which would make Suncor the lowest-cost oil producer in North America.

IEO2003 projects that Canadian oil sand production in the reference case will increase to more than 2.2m b/d by 2025. This assumes that world oil prices will moderate in the next few years and gradually rise to over $26.50/b (all prices expressed in 2001 dollars) by the end of the forecast period. The IEO2003 high oil price case (over $33/b by 2025) shows Canadian oil sand production increasing to almost 2.5m b/d by 2025.

The only thing that prevents Canadian oil sands production from being considerably higher (now and in future) is the lack of transportation infrastructure - most likely pipeline capacity - for moving production to market. The US is expected to import almost 1m b/d of output from Canadian oil sands by 2025. If potential pipeline projects from Western Canada into PADDs II and IV materialise over the next two decades, the share of Canadian oil sand production going to US imports could grow substantially.

Mexico is adopting energy policies that will encourage efficient development of its resource base. Expected oil production volumes in Mexico exceed 4.2m b/d by the end of the decade and remain near that level through 2025, having risen to 3.6m b/d in recent weeks. The output for 2003 will average 3.5m b/d, up from 3.4m b/d in July. Mexican crude oil exports in the first half of 2003 averaged 1.86m b/d.

Mexico's President Vicente Fox has appointed Felipe Calderon as energy minister, replacing Ernesto Martens. Calderon has promised that the state-owned NOC Pemex will not be privatised.

(In the IEO2003 reference case, world oil supply in 2025 is projected to exceed the 2001 level by 41m b/d. Increases in production are expected for both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. However, only about 39% of the total increase is expected to come from non-OPEC areas.

(Over the past two decades, the growth in non-OPEC oil supply has resulted in an OPEC market share substantially under its historic high of 52% in 1973. New E&P technologies, aggressive cost-reduction programmes by industry, and attractive fiscal terms to producers by governments all have contributed to the outlook for continued growth in non-OPEC oil production. While the long-term outlook for non-OPEC supply remains optimistic, the low oil price environment of 1998 and early 1999 had a definite impact on E&P. By end-1998, drilling activity in North America had fallen by more than 25% from its level a year earlier. Worldwide, only the Middle East region registered no decline in drilling activity during 1998.

(In general, onshore drilling fell more sharply than offshore drilling. Worldwide, offshore rig utilisation rates were generally sustained at levels better than 80% of capacity. The reference case projects that about 61% of the increase in petroleum demand over the next two decades will be met by an increase in OPEC production, rather than by non-OPEC suppliers. OPEC production in 2025 is projected to be more than 25m b/d higher than it was in 2001. There has been a shift towards non-OPEC supply projects in the recent high price environment. OPEC is to pursue significant price escalation in 2004 and 2005 through production cuts and conservative capacity expansion decisions, rather than undertake ambitious expansion programmes; however, the low and high world oil price forecasts in this outlook do not assume such suggestions).

North America dominated non-OPEC supply in the early 1970s, the North Sea and Mexico evolved as major producers in the 1980s, and much of the new production in the 1990s has come from the developing countries of Latin America, West Africa, the non-OPEC Middle East, and China. In the IEO2003 reference case, non-OPEC supply from proved reserves is to increase steadily, from 46.7m b/d in 2001 to 62.8m b/d in 2025.