Canada's 'shell game'.

When I was a youth celebrating the end of World War II, it was safe to anticipate the future and to calculate how to turn it to one's advantage. Development was "good'. Science and technology would be our salvation. I couldn't wait for next month's issues of "Popular Science" and "Popular Mechanics" to show up in our mail box. It was great to be young and even better to consider the benefits of growing older.

No more. At least, the future isn't what it used to be.

If you have been watching your television news or reading your newspaper in recent months, you will know that a potential disaster looms "Global Warming". Expect to hear a lot more over the next 12 months.

What used to be a "some day" issue is rapidly becoming a "tomorrow" issue. I don't mean that, suddenly, on March 10, sunbathing will be the new winter pastime in North Bay. But, the near-term scenario should be of some concern to most people. It seems that a rise in the earth's temperature of three or five degrees Celsius, or even more, is not out of the question. Why is that?

First, the pace of worldwide environmental degradation continues to outpace attempts to reform our practices of living on hydrocarbons - oil, gas, and coal. Witness the current power shortages in California where the only solution on offer is to build more electricity-generating stations. Slowing or reversing energy-consuming economic development is not something that America or Canada is willing to consider.

Second, developing countries such as China are burning dirty coal at an exponentially growing rate. Eastern Europe is impoverished and has no financial ability to curtail its pollution. Canada is running a 'shell game', promising one thing but doing another.

Third, cleaner automotive engine technology is being overwhelmed by millions of new cars and trucks that are turning the world's highways into parking lots. Smog alerts and the resulting health hazards are no longer restricted to California and Mexico City.

And, so on. Everyone say "Oink, oink", as we celebrate our status as energy hogs. And, as is the custom in polite-society, everyone gaze elsewhere, making as if nothing happened, when the hog farts!

As a result, the once fanciful predictions of a major meltdown of Arctic and Antarctic ice leading to rising sea levels are much more likely to occur. Wide-scale flooding will occur along both the Eastern and Western seaboards of North America, the west coast of Europe, and many inhabited islands and lowlands (goodbye Holland, goodbye Bangladesh!). Will Haligonians and Vancouverites include scuba gear in their wardrobes? Will Niagara Falls become the Niagara Rapids?

Some scenarios depict Depression-style dustbowls across the central and southern U.S. as well as the Canadian prairies (goodbye affordable bread and pasta!). The northern boreal forest is expected to whither and die, replaced after a lag of several hundred years by a north-migrating Carolinian forest. What we will do to earn a living from our forests in the meantime is unclear. Certainly, we'll be very busy planting succession species. On the upside, those looking for new mines won't be bothered by those pesky trees.

In time, too late for us, our spruce and pine lumber will originate in Churchill or the coast of James Bay. Will newsprint, by necessity, give way to e-mail due to dwindling resources more needed for toilet paper? Will cloth handkerchiefs and diapers come back into fashion as Kleenex and Pampers go out of fashion?

If anything is clear, it is that major changes are certain, but the ultimate form and consequences of those changes are not clear. How we will cope with those changes is even less clear.

Governments whistle in the dark to scare off the demons as they come in range of the graveyard. They are hoping that, somehow, the climatologists will be proven wrong or that we can effect a technological 'fix'.

Maybe Maybe we can perfect ways to economically extract hydrogen from water to provide the energy we need, leaving only water as a byproduct.

So, in your naivety, you might ask, "What can I do?" A great deal. You can join others in Pressuring our governments to clean up our own house first. Drive your gas-guzzling SUV to the auto wreck yard and buy a bicycle, or at least, a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Car pool. Use public transit. Turn down your thermostat. Oldies but goodies. Virgin ideas waiting for lovers of the environment.

Most important. Talk to your kids, the "inheritor generation'" Research the issues together. Explore future alternatives and anticipate the "What will we do?" responses. Like the Boy Scouts, help them to "Be Prepared!" as best you can.

Me? I'm going to look forward to a relaxing swim in lukewarm Lake Superior.

Bob Michels is an author and consultant from Atikokan.