Can Diesel Engines Survive Move to Stricter Emissions Standards?

Energy Editors/Business Editors/High-Tech Writers

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 3, 2003

New Study to Explore Impact of Tightening Regulations on Trucks,

Buses, and Off-Road Vehicles in Europe, Japan, and the U.S.

TIAX, a premier innovation, technology, and product development and consulting firm, and Global Insight, leading automotive and industry consultants, today announced the launch of a study on the issues, technical challenges, and outlook for heavy-duty powertrains in 2007 and beyond.

Countries around the world are tightening standards for Diesel emissions. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed measures to reduce Diesel emissions from off-road vehicles, such as bulldozers and tractors, by as much as 95 percent. Similar standards have been adopted and will go into effect for heavy-duty trucks and buses in the United States in 2007. Areas in Europe and Japan have already enacted strict standards and more regulations are likely.

Diesel exhaust produces fine soot that is easily inhaled and was cited as a likely carcinogen in an EPA report released last September. Diesel fumes can also cause eye irritation and respiratory problems. The EPA estimates that some 300,000 asthma attacks and 8,300 premature deaths can be prevented by adhering to stricter Diesel emissions standards.

"The Diesel technologies available today will not meet these proposed new standards," said J.R. Linna, Manager of TIAX's automotive practice. "The next two decades will see the most dramatic changes to heavy-duty Diesel vehicles in history."

The TIAX/Global Insight analysis will focus on alternative technologies that may replace today's Diesel engine, such as different fuels, more sophisticated after-treatment systems, and hybrid engines, and their cost impact, which could be significant. The study will determine potential marketshare for each technological option and consider whether the Diesel engine can continue to be viable or if alternative transport modes will be necessary.

"Given how important heavy duty powertrains are in transporting goods and to the world's economic infrastructure, the movement to stricter standards could have a major impact on some of the world's leading economies," said Phil Gott, Director of Automotive Consulting at Global Insight and study project manager. "The results of our analysis should help engine developers and their suppliers focus their technology investments and move forward with confidence to make this transition as smooth as possible."

This study marks the second time that TIAX and Global Insight professionals have collaborated on a powertrain analysis. In 2001, their joint study on the future of light-duty powertrains predicted the successful emergence of a new powertrain based on greatly improved engine, transmission, and fuel system technologies. Hybrids and other anticipated improvements over the next two decades should support the continued popularity of SUVs, even in the face of stricter regulations on fuel efficiency, according to the 2001 analysis.

The new study is open to vehicle manufacturers, engine suppliers, transmission suppliers, component suppliers, electrical/electronic suppliers, regulators, environmental lobbyists industry lobbyists, energy companies, battery companies, electric and hybrid vehicle manufacturers, and transport planners. Results should be available by August 2003.

About TIAX

TIAX LLC (www.tiax.biz) is a premier technology, product development, and technology-based consulting firm operating at the intersection of business and technology. Our scientists, engineers, and industry experts improve people's lives by helping commercial and government clients transform ideas into products and problems into solutions. Formerly Arthur D. Little's Technology & Innovation business, TIAX builds upon a rich, century-old heritage of breakthrough innovation. TIAX is ISO 9001 registered and has more than 50 research and development laboratories.

About Global Insight

Global Insight, Inc. (http://www.globalinsight.com/) is a privately held company formed to bring together the two most respected economic and financial information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic coverage of countries, regions and industries available from any source. The Global Automotive Group is a full-spectrum partner for the global automotive industry, drawing on the expertise of 40 automotive experts with credentials in engineering, finance, business administration, and market research, plus more than 225 economic forecasters and financial analysts worldwide. In addition to vehicle and component demand forecasting, the group is increasingly involved in single-client consulting for both OEMs and component suppliers. The company has over 3,000 clients in industry, finance and government around the world with revenues in excess of $65 million, 500 employees and 19 offices in 12 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.