Can Conte hold it together? Protests and riots rocked the usually placid country of Guinea indicating that the people may be losing patience with the government of Lansana Conte. Guinea has the world's largest reserves of bauxite and a new aluminium smelter will add considerable value to its main export--if stability can be maintained. Report by Neil Ford.

The Mano River region has long been one of the most insecure and unstable parts of Africa. Civil war and rebel activity in Sierra Leone and Liberia spilled over their common border and also into neighbouring Guinea.

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For many years, it looked as if Guinea too could be dragged into any one of the interlinked conflicts on its doorstep, yet the government of President Lansana Conte managed to hang on to power. Now, however, rising discontent in Guinea threatens to destabilise the country just as its two neighbours seem firmly set on the road to recovery.

Protests have been called in the past in many African countries as a result of unpopular political decisions, yet it is the lack of action by Conte that seems to have spurred Guineans into action. Mineral intensive industries generally produce relatively little employment for the size of their revenues but the government has largely failed to use these revenues to invest in other parts of the economy, in infrastructure and in social provision. The president is rarely seen in public and his government has been relatively inactive, persuading many people that a change at the top is required.

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Falling living standards, the lack of work and limited access to vital services prompted trade union leaders to call a general strike in January. Conte responded by calling in the army to oppose the protesters and a curfew was imposed across the country.

Up to 100 people were killed in clashes between protesters and the security forces, but Conte finally agreed to appoint a new prime minister that was acceptable to the trade unions and the political opposition. The strike was therefore called off after 18 days.

Lansana Kouyate, who was one of several potential candidates proposed by the opposition, was given the job and Conte gave him much greater powers to act, including the right to appoint and dismiss ministers. Kouyate is seen as a weightier figure than some previous Conte appointees and was previously a diplomat at the UN. He replaced Eugene Camara, who was seen by many as being too close to the president.

It remains to be seen whether Conte has done enough to preserve his position in the long term. He has ruled the country since coming to power in the 1984 coup and has shown few signs of ever being prepared to step down. Now that Guineans have begun to challenge the president, the opposition forces may not rest until he has been removed from power.

In addition, protesters could be driven by a change in perception. Guinea was previously regarded as a relatively stable country, in comparison with Liberia and Sierra Leone. However, it could be argued that it is the improvement in the other two Mano River states' prospects, rather than any deterioration in living standards in Guinea, that has driven the recent instability. International support and investment is beginning to improve the economies of both Sierra Leone and Liberia, and while it is too soon to have much impact on general living standards, there may be a perception among Guineans that they are missing out. This feeling could be reinforced by the fact that donors are withholding support for Guinea because of corruption and the absence of democratic reform. The key to Conte's fate will be whether the army is prepared to continue supporting him. He came from their ranks but increasingly open popular discontent may encourage a switch of allegiance. Moreover, the army has mutinied once before, in 1996 when they seized Conte and demanded a pay rise.

Impact on investment

The impact of this unrest on the mining sector could be significant. While Guinea has boasted a higher GDP per capita than many other countries in West Africa, the statistics hid widespread and deep-seated poverty.

At least 35% of global bauxite reserves are located in the country and the export of bauxite and alumina provides around 80% of Guinea's export revenues. However, the industry has created relatively little employment or benefits for ordinary Guineans.

Bauxite is used to produce alumina, which in turn is then processed into aluminium. Each stage is an important industrial process that generates income but Guinea has traditionally exported its bauxite in the raw form. In common with many other countries, Guinea has failed to benefit from the lucrative processing of its raw materials. However, all that is about to change, with the construction of the Sangaredi alumina plant by Canadian firm Global Alumina (see African Business, Guinea Smelter--The perfect model, March 2007 issue).

Despite the unrest, the Sangaredi plant is still expected to come on stream in 2009, while Alcan of Canada and Alcoa of the US should continue exporting raw bauxite. However, ongoing instability in the country could discourage further investment, while a more proactive Guinean government with a more attractive investment environment could hope to encourage the construction of an aluminium smelter within the country.

A smelter is now operational in Mozambique and Alcan has recently given the go-ahead for another in Coega in South Africa, but a Guinean smelter would greatly improve West Africa's industrial capacity. With such a large share of global reserves, the government could certainly hope to exert more leverage over foreign investors.

President Lansana Conte has failed to fully take advantage of his country's raw materials but the Global Alumina venture is at least a step in the right direction. In addition, mining giant BHP Billiton is considering investing in alumina production in Guinea, although it is unclear whether it could participate in the Global Alumina scheme.

With investment forthcoming with such a poor security situation and limited infrastructure in the country, it would be interesting to see whether a smelter could be developed in a more stable, welcoming Guinea.

RELATED ARTICLE: Somalia

AU troops arrive

Troops from a number of African Union (AU) states have begun to deploy in Somalia, replacing the Ethiopian forces that managed to overthrow the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).

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While it is difficult to be more than cautiously optimistic about the prospects for peace in the country, the involvement of other African states could help to maintain international attention in what is still a collapsed nation. Somalia has been without an effective central government for the past 16 years, so that over half of the population cannot remember a time before the country was carved up by various warlords.

Ugandan soldiers were the first to arrive in Mogadishu. The 400 troops are part of a 1,700-strong Ugandan force that will eventually be deployed, while Burundi has also pledged to send the same amount. Nigeria's contribution will number 850, while Malawi and Ghana have also agreed to make some contribution, but it remains to be seen whether the planned 8,000-man mission can be fully staffed.

Nevertheless, the AU is attempting to demonstrate that African governments can work together on peacekeeping missions to help overcome the continent's most pressing problems.

Can AU forces cope?

Hopes of peace have been hit by renewed fighting, following the rapid Ethiopian victory over the UIC. Insurgents have become increasingly active in Mogadishu and the airport was attacked by mortars during the ceremony to welcome the first Ugandan soldiers.

It is hoped that the AU force can quickly take over from Ethiopian troops but it remains to be seen how the AU force will cope if it comes up against stubborn resistance. Other AU missions elsewhere on the continent have generally been used on peacekeeping rather than peace enforcing operations.

Moreover, it is unlikely that 8,000 troops, most of whom will have little experience of multinational missions, will be able to tackle Somalia's warlords if they decide to oppose rule from the capital.

Even if the security situation does improve over the next year and beyond, it is likely that some form of informal, decentralised government will be agreed, with the central government having little real authority outside the capital.

The main aims of the AU soldiers will be to maintain law and order in and around Mogadishu, and to support the new government. The transitional government was set up in Nairobi in 2004 following prolonged negotiations but despite the backing of the Kenyan government, it initially met with little support from any of Somalia's armed groups.

However, it has been swept into power in the capital as a result of the Ethiopian invasion and must now seek to impose its rule over the city before attempting to replicate the process across the country.

Most of the rest of Somalia, including the self-declared autonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland in the north, will remain out of the reach of the national government for the foreseeable future.

Re-establishing national cohesion will be a long and difficult process but it is vital that the government attempts to improve transport links within the country and with the outside world.