Campaign countdown: what to expect from elections in 2005?

Last year, 10 states held gubernatorial elections with the PRI triumphant in seven, the PAN winning twice and the PRD claiming one victory. This year, there will be seven gubernatorial elections, with the State of Mexico ballot topping the list.

One point to keep in mind about the 2004 elections is that the Federal Electoral Tribunal intervened in 40 percent of the outcomes. This indicates that partisan competition at the local level is just as heated as at the federal level. Of more importance is that the widespread acceptance of the tribunal's decisions implies a growing institutionalization of the election process, a favorable sign for the 2006 presidential race which is expected to be exceedingly competitive.

This year's races may generate more surprises than last year's slate since only two of the seven contests feature a clear favorite (Hidalgo and Coahuila, where the PRI is expected to win).

In Guerrero, the PRI and the PRD will stage a two-party battle. The PRI's in power, but the PRD has gained ground and boasts a strong candidate in former Acapulco Mayor Zeferino Torres Blanca.

In Baja California Sur, the PRD was likely to win until internal divisions prompted Sen. Rodimiro Amaya to switch to the PRI and a closely fought contest is now likely.

At the opposite end of the nation in Quintana Roo, recent local elections have been highly competitive. Although the PRI presently holds the governorship, the party has suffered bitter battles over candidates. The PRD has chosen the popular former mayor of Cancun, Ignacio Garcia Zalvidea. The race here is expected to go down to the wire.

In tiny Nayarit, the coalition that defeated the PRI six years ago seems to have fallen apart and the PRI did well in the most recent local and federal elections there. As such, the former ruling party is expected to return to power.

Prelude To 2006

The State of Mexico merits deeper analysis, as much for its political clout as for its economic strength. The country's most populous state has seen increasingly competitive elections in recent years. In the previous gubernatorial election, the PRI defeated the PAN by only 6 percent.

Political analysts also point out that the state's partisan breakdown is representative of national party strengths as well. As such, observers are prone to suggest the State of Mexico contest could offer an indication of how the 2006 presidential race might go. The PRI is seen as the favorite, but with no clear-cut advantage; the PAN is not far behind and the PRD is a step below these two, but with distinct possibilities of gaining enough favor among the electorate to mount a serious challenge.

Another important factor is the participation of two potential presidential candidates: current State of Mexico Gov. Arturo Montiel has expressed interest in becoming the PRI nominee and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, mayor of neighboring Mexico City, is seen as the best PRD presidential candidate.

Without doubt, the outcome of this year's elections will influence how parties jockey for position ahead of the all-important 2006 presidential campaign. But it is unlikely that they will serve as an accurate barometer for the federal elections, since a different logic is at work at the local level.

Having said this, the State of Mexico vote could merit close analysis due to the similarities between internal politics there and across the nation in general.

2005 ELECTORAL CALENDAR

DATE      STATE                WHAT'S AT STAKE

                               GOVERNOR
FEB. 6    BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR  5 MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS
                               15 STATE LEGISLATORS

FEB. 6    GUERRERO             GOVERNOR

                               GOVERNOR
FEB. 6    QUINTANA ROO         8 MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS
                               15 STATE LEGISLATORS

FEB. 20   HIDALGO              GOVERNOR
                               18 STATE LEGISLATORS

JULY 3    STATE OF MEXICO      GOVERNOR

                               GOVERNOR
JULY 3    NAYARIT              20 MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS
                               18 STATE LEGISLATORS

                               GOVERNOR
SEPT. 25  COAHUILA             38 MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS
                               18 STATE LEGISLATORS

OCT. 2    GUERRERO             76 MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS
                               28 STATE LEGISLATORS

NOV. 13   HIDALGO              84 MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS

Gustavo Almaraz Montano is the director of Grupo Estrategia Politica; Orlando Michel Calderon is an analyst with Grupo Estrategia Politica.