Calm beneath the tumult.

Byline: The Register-Guard

The United States would almost certainly be drawn into a war between China and Taiwan, so American diplomacy is aimed primarily at calming leaders on both the mainland and the island. Taiwan, however, has been anything but calm in recent days, with an attempted assassination, the disputed re-election of nationalist president Chen Shui-bian and subsequent street protests. But the turmoil can't alter a more powerful and encouraging trend giving China and Taiwan a mutual interest in peace.

China continues to insist that Taiwan is a renegade province, and one of the surest tickets to a Beijing prison is to support the island's independence. Chen's Democratic People's Party has come close to declaring independence, and China broke off relations after he was elected president four years ago. The United States has maintained a policy of "creative ambiguity," acknowledging "one China" to keep Beijing happy while cultivating close economic and military relations with Taipei.

This three-way tightrope act has continued for decades, and time has improved its prospects for continued success. China could not wage war with Taiwan without fighting against one of its largest sources of investment and placing itself at odds with the United States, its largest market. Taiwan, for its part, has a growing stake in China's economy and understands that its patron, the United States, has interests on both sides of the straits. As the mutual economic interdependence of China and Taiwan grow, the costs of any conflict increase.

While Taiwan's voters narrowly favored Chen, they also rejected a referendum that could have been a precursor to a vote on independence. And while China has ignored Chen's request for discussions about a new relationship and steadfastly asserts its territorial claims, his re-election has brought only a muted reaction.

In the meantime, despite the messiness of the election, Taiwan has emerged as a true democracy. The authoritarian Kuomintang party, which ruled the island for 40 years, has retreated into its new role as the opposition. The familiar warnings and denunciations that volley between Taiwan and China have become almost ritualistic, intended mainly for domestic consumption. In one of the world's most perennially worrisome flashpoints, the sound remains but the fury seems to be ebbing.