California may have had hundreds more heat-wave deaths last July than the state reported

The heat wave that scorched California a year ago may have contributed to hundreds more deaths than the state has officially reported, an Associated Press investigation suggests.

As recently as last month, state officials reported that the two-week ordeal of temperatures over 100 degrees (37.78 Celsius) that began on July 14, 2006, killed 143 people.

But statistics compiled by the AP from each of California's 58 counties show the number of deaths last July was 466 higher than the average over the previous six years _ a spike many health officials attribute to the broiling heat.

Dr. Kevin Reilly, the state Health Department's deputy director for prevention services, said that without examining each case individually, he cannot say for certain whether the 300 or so additional deaths identified by the AP were heat-related. But he admitted the state's count is probably too low.

"Is this underreported? Almost certainly," he said.

Frank McCarton, chief deputy director of the Governor's Office of Emergency Services, said state and county health officials alike clearly need to track heat-related deaths more accurately if they hope to save more lives.

"This is something we're going to really try to tighten up," he said.

That could be especially important because many scientists predict California will experience prolonged heat waves for years to come.

There is no evidence of a deliberate undercount of fatalities by California authorities.

Instead, local health officials say they often have difficulty determining whether a death was caused by heat instead of old age or a pre-existing condition, such as heart or respiratory disease _ illnesses that can be aggravated by extreme temperatures. Coroners commonly attribute a death to one of these underlying conditions without noting whether heat was a factor.

California coroners typically list deaths as heat-related when there are obvious connections, such as an elderly or disabled person found dead in a stifling room or farmworkers who collapsed in the fields. Beyond that, settling on a cause of death is largely a judgment call.

During scorching heat, California, like other states and cities, opens air-conditioned cooling centers and urges local governments to check on shut-ins and the elderly. A state emergency plan developed after last year's heat wave says social workers and National Guardsmen should take people to cooling centers.

The AP analysis found that the average number of deaths statewide for July between 2000 and 2005 was 18,639. Last July, it was 19,105, according to the AP data.

In Sacramento County alone, the July 2006 death toll was more than 100 over the average for the previous six years.

"I cannot account for any event that could have caused that, other than the heat wave," county Health Officer Glennah Trochet said.

This summer, the National Weather Service is forecasting a 40 percent chance for hotter-than-normal temperatures in California's Central Valley.

"The pattern over the western United States is going to be very favorable for a very long, hot summer," said forecaster Jeff Barlow.

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Associated Press writers Solvej Schou in Los Angeles, Marcus Wohlsen in San Francisco and Juliet Williams in Sacramento contributed to this report.