Cable production boosts entertainment jobs outlook.

After several years of declining employment, the job outlook in the local entertainment industry may be inching upward.

If projections for the June-August period hold, an increase in the number of production days in Los Angeles may stem what has been a steady stream of job losses to runaway production and reality television programming in recent years.

Total production days jumped 28.5 percent from last year's June-July-August summer season, fed in part by a surge in TV production--and cable programming in particular.

"Job numbers have been down, but all of a sudden you're starting to see a little bit of stability and a little bit of an increase," said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. "You have more activity going on, and you have the cable channels also producing more."

In month-over-month figures over the past few years, employment in L.A. County has continued to decline in the motion picture and sound recording industries, the sector that comprises the largest number of entertainment jobs recorded by the California Economic Development Department. Those declines continued in June and July, but a spike in August is expected to skew the numbers upward.

Kyser said he expected third-quarter entertainment-related employment to top an average of 122,000, an increase of 7.4 percent from the like period in 2003, and the first increase in three years for the region. He attributed those projections to a rapid rise in television production this summer.

The 4,552 television production days in the June-August period were a 31.5 percent increase over a year earlier, according to the Entertainment Industry Development Corp., which tracks local production. That was the highest level in the past three summers.

Motion picture production days also increased, by 30.2 percent, but have not seen the same steady increase as in television production.

Boost from reality

Steve MacDonald, president of the EIDC, said reality programming, which accounted for 40 percent to 45 percent of television production days, was not the only factor fueling the increase.

"We're still at a fairly steady rate, within 5 percent of a normal 10-year average, even stripping reality TV away," he said. "What is less clear is whether one reality show is taking away jobs one-to-one or is replacing a drama. It might be it's in addition to regular scripted television going on."

One potential factor fueling the television boost may be the growth of original programming on cable television, MacDonald said.

"You have cable doing more, and everybody is getting into the act," Kyser agreed. "Cable is traditional. They are scripted series, and they're doing quite well."

Cable television shows such as HBO's "Six Feet Under" and "Curb Your Enthusiasm" have offset some of the job decreases in network casting, said Richard Hicks, president of the Casting Society of America and a local casting director. About three or four years ago, he did a pilot per year for one of the networks. Now, he said, he does two or three a year, and at least one of them is a cable show.

"There are a lot of cable companies trying to copy HBO's success by making more product," he said. "They're going for the HBO mold, which is scripted, as opposed to leaning more towards reality."

Not all network programming is reality, either. Ilyanne Morden Kichaven, national communications director at the Screen Actors Guild, said the popularity of shows such as "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" might indicate that the reality television trend could reverse itself soon.

Below-the-line cutbacks

Previously, declining employment in the entertainment sector was attributable to several factors, not just the rise of reality shows. Layoffs in the consolidating entertainment industry, particularly at Walt Disney Co., may have skewed the drops in recent years, said Christopher Thornberg, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

He said only a third of the jobs reported to the EDD in the motion picture and sound recording industries are involved in production, with the balance in marketing, finance and other office positions that were subject to layoffs.

Gains in a smaller but separate segment of employment may match increases in local production more accurately, he said. The category of independent artists, writers and producers, which includes actors and artistic and technical jobs related to creative performances, has seen steady job growth during the past several years, according to the EDD. In June and July, jobs jumped to 27,400, from 26,400 in the same months of 2003.

"There are some shows that could be made closer or cheapest," Thornberg said. "Pilots. and things like that, need to be close to the source of managers and all the marketing people. And those jobs aren't going anywhere."

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