CUP NEEDS SECOND LOOK.

Byline: Kevin Modesti Horse Racing 

It seems to happen this way as often as not: You have the Breeders' Cup all figured out. Then they run the prep races.

The past three weekends' major stakes at Santa Anita, at Belmont Park in New York and Keeneland in Kentucky only muddied the waters for fans looking ahead to the Nov. 6 Breeders' Cup at Gulfstream Park in Florida. In a few cases, the mud was real.

Of the horses who'd been generally considered the leading U.S. contenders in each of the eight Breeders' Cup races, six were defeated in their final preps, one (the 2-year-old filly Chilukki) won less impressively than expected, and another (the sprinter Forestry) raised legitimate questions by staying in the barn.

The result is widespread re-evaluation of the whole $13 million Breeders' Cup card. With apologies to Newsweek magazine, here's a look at how the conventional wisdom has changed since the start of the month. The races are listed in the order they'll be contested.

Distaff Old conventional wisdom: 3-year-old Silverbulletday is a superfilly, Banshee Breeze is the class of the older females, and Keeper Hill just can't win anymore.

New conventional wisdom: Losing to pacesetting 4-year-old Beautiful Pleasure in the sloppy-track Beldame at Belmont Park demonstrates Silverbulletday is worn out after 10 races this year and beating her age group 11 times in a row, while Keeper Hill's victory over Banshee Breeze makes her the now horse.

Another possibility: Silverbulletday took the worst of the racetrack at Belmont as Jerry Bailey rode her near the rail - a path other jockeys were avoiding in the big races on that soggy day.

Juvenile Fillies Old CW: Chilukki is the second coming of Ruffian and will be the shortest-priced favorite on Breeders' Cup day.

New CW: Chilukki still might be the heaviest favorite but only because the other races are wide open. She's winning more narrowly as the distances increase, embarrassing allowance winner Abby Girl at Santa Anita, and will be vulnerable against stronger-finishing Surfside going 1 1/16 miles for the first time.

Another possibility: Chilukki let up after taking the lead from Abby Girl, a bit of mischief that's no surprise in a 2-year-old.

Mile Old CW: If the Europeans aren't scared off by the Florida climate, they'll be favored to win the mile turf race for the ninth time in 15 runnings, while Californians will be in for their usual frustration.

New CW: Leading Euros Sendawar and Gold Away have dropped out. The victory by Julio Canani-trained Silic in the Oak Tree Mile, the soft-course third by Canani's Ladies Din at Keeneland, and an unlucky disqualification by Neil Drysdale-trained Hawksley Hill in Canada give the race a real western tilt.

Another possibility: Better use the next two weeks to examine the Mile inside and out, reviewing every U.S. videotape and consulting European analysis - and then mark the ``all'' box in the upset-prone opening race of the Breeders' Cup pick-six.

Sprint Old CW: Forestry has been resting contentedly in Bob Baffert's barn since a swift victory at Saratoga in August, watching other Sprint hopefuls beat each other up.

New CW: Belmont Park record-setter Artax, romping Santa Anita winner Lexicon and rusty Santa Anita runner-up Kona Gold have to be sharper than a horse who's been off for 10 weeks.

Another possibility: Fitness is never the pivotal factor in the 6-furlong Sprint, so you should concentrate on other factors.

Filly and Mare Turf Old CW: All the long-sidelined Fiji needs is one good prep and then it's off to defend her 1998 female turf championship.

New CW: Two losing preps later, the cautious Drysdale is under pressure to run Fiji in the Breeders' Cup as a retirement sendoff.

Juvenile Old CW: New York's More Than Ready is the second coming of Easy Goer.

New CW: He's another Easy Goer to this extent - he won't win a Breeders' Cup race, having been put away for the year, ``a little tired'' after back-to-back losses, according to trainer Todd Pletcher.

Another possibility: More Than Ready's western counterpart, Del Mar Futurity winner Forest Camp, might be an even better bet now that an educational second in the Norfolk has raised his odds.

Turf Old CW: Dubai-owned European star Daylami is a world-beater if he comes.

New CW: He's coming, after some hemming and hawing.

Another possibility: He's coming because his handlers are unimpressed by the U.S. contingent, so if you like an American, don't be discouraged.

Classic Old CW: It's New York older horse Behrens vs. California 3-year-old General Challenge in a classic showdown.

New CW: Behrens' Jockey Club Gold Cup loss to River Keen is excusable because of the Belmont mud, but General Challenge confirmed he can't win the close ones when fairy-tale Budroyale defeated him in the Goodwood.

Another possibility: It's an open race in this year without a superhorse, so it's best not to make up your mind too soon about Behrens, General Challenge or anybody else.

A WEEK AT THE RACES 

Oak Tree leaders: Jockeys (through Wednesday): David Flores, 19 wins; Alex Solis, 16; Laffit Pincay, 10; Garrett Gomez, 9; Chris McCarron and Corey Nakatani, 8. Trainers: Bob Baffert, 12; Ron McAnally, 8; Bill Spawr, 7; Richard Mandella and John Sadler, 6.

Handicapper helper: A close look at the leading jockeys' victories at the Oak Tree meet shows how some riders have pronounced ``running styles'' just like horses. Flores is a speed rider; 16 of his 19 winners were first, second or third in the early going. Solis is more patient; 8 of his 16 winners rallied from fourth or farther.

On the stakes schedule: At Santa Anita: today, $75,000 Sunny Slope, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs; Saturday, $250,000 Oak Tree Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on turf; Sunday, $100,000 Harold C. Ramser Sr. Handicap, 3-year-old fillies, 1 mile on turf.

Mileposts: Laffit Pincay, having a solid Oak Tree meet, is 31 away from Bill Shoemaker's career-winners record (8,833). But Pincay wasn't named to ride any horses Thursday or Friday. . . . Sammy Renick, who, in his riding days, was a founder of the national Jockeys Guild, died at 87 in New York over the weekend. . . . Kent Desormeaux made a splashy return from his Del Mar injury by winning three stakes last weekend - aboard Keeper Hill in the Spinster and Richter Scale in the Phoenix Handicap at Keeneland and Lexicon in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita. . . . Bob Baffert-trained Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies favorite Chilukki and Sprint contender Forestry recorded fastest-of-the-morning 58 3/5-second 5-furlong workouts at Santa Anita Tuesday. . . . Despite their recent defeats, Behrens and the filly Silverbulletday remain 1-2 in the NTRA media poll, because many of those below them lost, too. . . . After his Belmont Park track-record 1:07.66 for 6 furlongs in the Forest Hills Handicap, Artax owns the two highest Beyer speed figures of 1999. That race and Artax's Carter Handicap victory at Aqueduct in May (7 furlongs in 1:20.04) earned 123 ratings. . . . Aqueduct's Wood Memorial, which has been losing luster as a Kentucky Derby prep, will have its purse raised from $600,000 to $750,000 - matching the Santa Anita Derby and Keeneland's Blue Grass - for its April 15, 2000 running. . . . A judge upheld eastern trainer Ken McPeek's appeal of a one-year suspension ordered by the New Jersey Racing Commission in 1993 after McPeek was accused of wrongdoing in a horse's fatal breakdown at the Meadowlands. The scandal was hanging over McPeek when his Tejano Run ran second in the 1995 Kentucky Derby. . . . Hong Kong jockey Stanley Chin, 25, was sentenced to three years and five months in prison for his part in failed race-fixing attempts at Sha Tin in 1996.

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BOX: A week at the races (see text)