CROWDED FIELD MAKES IT HARD TO HAVE A HIT.

Byline: Keith Marder Daily News Television Writer

If last season is any example, most of the shows that premiere over the next few weeks will fail.

The six networks unveiled an unprecedented 42 shows last fall. Only nine are back, two of them on new networks.

``That was probably a little lower (survival rate) than normal,'' said Tim Brooks, co-author of ``The Complete Directory of Prime Time Network and Cable TV Shows.''

``Some seasons, as many as one-third of the shows survive. But that was back when there were fewer players. The average is going to go down as more (networks) get in the bowl.''

The last time only three networks were around to announce their fall lineup was 1986. That year, 25 shows debuted in the fall, and 10 of them were around in 1987.

Premieres are critical.

``With television, everyone sees it simultaneously. The first episode better be good, or you're dead,'' Brooks said.

It's a high-stakes game that just about everybody plugs into.

Americans spend much more time in front of their televisions than in cinemas. The average person goes to 5.2 movies a year, which totals about 10.4 hours, according to the Motion Picture Association of America.

The average person watched almost three times that (28 hours, 10 minutes) a week during the 1994-95 season, according to Nielsen Media Research.

ABC Entertainment president Jamie Tarses agreed with Brooks' analysis that the quality of programs, especially sitcoms, has diminished as the demand increased with the addition of the WB and UPN networks.

``There are just not enough writers in this town, or in many other towns, to accommodate all the demands for half-hour programming,'' Tarses said. ``So, the brightest stars are being catapulted through the hierarchy very quickly, and end up in situations where they have to run shows, perhaps a season or two before they're ready to.''

And good writing or being the best show doesn't mean you'll make it. Time slot and lead-in show are factors considered as important as writing and acting. A promotional blitz doesn't assure anything - witness ``Central Park West.''

CBS pulled out all the stops for ``CPW.'' There were giant billboards in New York, buses trumpeting the show's arrival, a slick series of TV ads, slots on every talk show, specials on E! Millions were thrown into the show, which was to be the beacon for the ``New'' CBS. It didn't matter. ``Central Park West,'' which was later replaced by a revamped version called ``CPW,'' was a two-time loser.

Meanwhile on NBC, the mediocre ``The Single Guy,'' surrounded by ``Friends'' and ``Seinfeld,'' and the bland ``Caroline in the City,'' hammocked between ``Seinfeld'' and ``ER,'' were ratings winners that earned a return engagement on the NBC schedule.

The far fresher and superior ``The Drew Carey Show'' is back this year, but not without a struggle. If you took ``Carey'' out of its 8:30 Wednesday spot on ABC and gave it ``The Single Guy's'' Thursday night slot, it would have been a breakout hit.

And Leah Thompson would be looking for work right now had ``Caroline'' aired on another network on Thursday nights, or in Carey's spot, for that matter. Instead, Thompson is going up against her ``Back to the Future'' son, Michael J. Fox, who stars in ABC's much-touted newcomer ``Spin City'' at 9:30 p.m. Tuesdays on ABC.

Then look at a show like ``Murder One,'' which was the best new show last year and would not even be back this time if it hadn't been one of ABC Entertainment chairman Ted Harbert's personal favorites. First it competed against ``ER,'' then, after a several-week-long hiatus, was put up against ``Chicago Hope.'' It was drubbed in both slots.

This year, with a new head attorney (Anthony LaPaglia) and a new format (three cases instead of one), it will take on ``Seinfeld'' at 9 p.m. Thursdays, where it will no doubt be ratings challenged again.

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Photo

Photo: Lea Thompson's ``Caroline in the City'' moves to Tue sday on NBC.