COUNTY TURNOUT HITS 24-YEAR LOW.

Byline: Deborah Sullivan Daily News Staff Writer

Voter turnout in Los Angeles County plummeted to its lowest level in at least 24 years and political analysts said Wednesday that one reason is turned-off Republican voters stayed home.

Turnout Tuesday was 47.6 percent of 3.8 million registered voters, down more than 10 points from the 1994 gubernatorial election, and more than 30 points since 1966, according to the county Registrar-Recorder's Office. In eight gubernatorial elections since then, voter turnout never dipped below 55 percent, statistics show.

No official breakdown of turnout by party affiliation was available Wednesday.

But political analysts from both major political parties said their research showed Republicans were uninspired by lackluster campaigns by gubernatorial candidate Dan Lungren and U.S. Senate contender Matt Fong.

Sacramento political analyst Tony Quinn said statistical models based on partisan turnout at previous elections suggest that Republicans largely sat this one out.

``Republicans didn't vote,'' said Quinn, who has worked for the Republican Party. ``They were turned off by negative campaign ads of Boxer and Davis, and the fact that Lungren and Fong didn't answer them adequately. That just killed the Republican turnout.''

California Democratic Party campaign adviser Bob Mulholland said the Democratic Party brought out its own faithful and planted enough doubts about Republican candidates to keep the Grand Old Party's supporters at home.

``The Democratic turnout was very, very high,'' he said. ``I think the meanness of Dan Lungren demoralized and reduced Republican turnout. He looked mean on TV and he had extreme positions on education, assault weapons, choice.''

Arnold Steinberg, a Republican political strategist, said Lungren, like Fong, did not inspire enthusiasm.

``I just don't think he really connected with the electorate,'' Steinberg said. ``There was no theme. He alluded to Ronald Reagan but the fact was that Republican voters did not see him as another Ronald Reagan.''

And Davis didn't compel negative votes, he said.

``People didn't feel threatened by Gray Davis,'' Steinberg said. ``He was not seen as a far-left radical. Davis seemed to project moderation.''

Mike Madrid, political director of the California Republican Party, acknowledged that the state campaigns failed to articulate a compelling message, but suggested that instead of staying home, some Republican voters switched sides.

``In terms of voter turnout, you're seeing Republican voters turning out in higher numbers than Democrats,'' Madrid said. ``The problem was they weren't voting for Republican candidates.''

Indeed, among voters interviewed at Valley polling places, most said they turned out to vote Democrat.

``I think the Republicans have gotten away with murder and it's time we took over,'' said Martha Goldberg, 81, a resident of the Jewish Homes for the Aging in Reseda.

Goldberg, like other Democratic voters, defied pundits' predictions that the Clinton sex scandal would kill the party's turnout this year. To the contrary, Democratic voters said, the pending impeachment hearings prodded them to show support for their party.

Erika Humphries, 29, of Winnetka said she turned out to vote on several propositions, ``and also to get the Democrats back in power so we can keep our president.''

While Quinn and Madrid said Clinton's troubles had a net neutral effect, Steinberg said the pending impeachment hearings might have backfired on Republicans.

``For a couple of months I've been in e-mail predicting to many of my colleagues that the so-called Republican bump in turnout because of the Clinton factor would never materialize,'' he said.

``Secondly, Democrats did not turn out to be demoralized, but instead were motivated against the Republicans.''

CAPTION(S):

chart

CHART: Poor voter turnout

Dionisio Munoz/Daily News