COUNTY GROWTH ANTICIPATED : CONSTRUCTION TO FUEL ECONOMIC MOMENTUM IN '97.

Byline: Michael Coit Daily News Staff Writer

The overheated '80s haven't returned, yet most barometers signal a warming economy for east Ventura County in the year ahead, say business experts and civic leaders.

Following a steady, though unspectacular, year for business expansion and housing construction, 1997 promises more tangible gains in both the Conejo and Simi valleys.

The opening of The Promenade at Westlake - a 210,000-square-foot shopping center - in Thousand Oaks could be followed this year with groundbreaking for a 230,000-square-foot entertainment-retail complex down the street next to the Civic Arts Plaza. In Newbury Park, the first homes at Dos Vientos are expected to go up this year with lots nearly completed for 220 of the 2,000 homes planned.

``We think the overall economy is going to improve. We think '97 is going to be the year when it finally gets off the dime,'' said Fred Burkhardt, executive director for the Thousand Oaks-Conejo Valley Chamber of Commerce.

In Simi Valley, planners are reviewing a General Plan amendment and update of the West End Specific Plan that eventually could result in a 300,000-square-foot center featuring big retail stores. Homes are under construction and for sale in a dozen developments, including the 415-home Park Lane development. Construction on the first of 652 homes planned at Long Canyon, in Wood Ranch, could begin by the end of the year.

``Last year, the theory was we hit bottom and we were coming out,'' said Simi Valley Mayor Greg Stratton, who has witnessed wide economic swings during 17 years on the City Council. ``It's not the go-go days of the '80s, when we were watching massive development, but there's a lot of stuff that's in the works, and we expect to see a lot of that come to fruition.''

Such optimism nevertheless should be tempered by sluggish growth in the equally important area of job growth, said Mark Schniepp, director of the Economic Forecasting Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

``We would like to see a little bit more healthy growth out of Ventura County. It's warm, but it's not hot by any means,'' he said.

Schniepp's team has tracked the county's economy since 1993, and he said the momentum that stalled last year should return. ``I think (Ventura) will catch up and move ahead a little bit in 1997.''

Positive trends in housing, commercial and industrial development, retail sales, and personal income are signs of the region's economic recovery.

The arrival of homes in Dos Vientos, the 2,400-acre development at the west end of Newbury Park, has been anticipated since the city of Thousand Oaks reached a development agreement with the two property owners in 1990. Planning by Operating Engineers Funds Inc. and Courtly Homes Inc. began in 1982.

``You'll see houses up in the air this year,'' said Eric Taylor, the project consultant for the 800 housing lots approved for Operating Engineers.

More than a year of grading, paving and utility installations for the first 220 lots already has provided jobs and an economic boost. That will multiply with housing construction once the lots are sold to builders.

Courtly homes has gained approval for 400 of its 1,200 lots. Grading and other site development began in November, and a builder is ready to start construction this year.

A sure sign of a healthy economy in Simi Valley is the unyielding pace of housing development, Stratton said.

``They're not all big ones, but there's a lot of places. You look around, and there's a lot of life to the residential building business,'' he noted.

Long Canyon is an example of a project with new life. The Wood Ranch development stalled when the original builder, Olympia/Roberts Co., went bankrupt in 1993. New Urban West purchased the project, gained approval from the city of Simi Valley last fall and could start construction by the end of the year.

Retail development anticipated in the coming year will not match the pace of new housing but is an improvement over recent years, economic analysts said.

``It has a chain reaction,'' said Marty de los Cobos, president of the board for the Ventura County Economic Development Association, which represents business and industry.

``The latter part of 1995 and the entire year of 1996 was a transition,'' he said. ``By and large, we anticipate we're going to have a good year.''

The public response to The Promenade at Westlake, which Caruso Affiliated Holdings developed, is a signal of pent-up consumer demand in the Conejo Valley, said Burkhardt, the chamber executive.

Burkhardt said equally significant will be the entertainment-retail complex planned by Kilroy Industries in the heart of the Thousand Oaks Boulevard corridor. Chamber leaders are working on a proposal intended to spur a revitalization of the valley's oldest commercial strip, which Burkhardt said should be presented to city officials early this year.

``The rehabilitation has been sporadic,'' he said.

``To date there have been individual owners taking individual actions. There hasn't been any coordinated effort,'' he contended. ``Redevelopment and rejuvenation is going to happen in clusters.''

The next significant retail development in Simi Valley is expected to be a 300,000-square-foot center for big retailers east of Madera Road and south of the Ronald Reagan Freeway.

``It's coming right along, at least the general plan and specific plan,'' Stratton said. ``We're hearing that once they get approval, they can get under way quick.''

Job growth is needed to balance the region's economy.

The region so far appears to be gaining as business and industry move across the county line from the San Fernando Valley, said Jerry Pelton, managing officer for the CB Commercial office in Ventura County.

``The trend with vacancies dropping is continuing,'' Pelton said. ``Definitely, '96 was a transition year. I think, overall, it's going to continue in a positive manner.''

More jobs, however, can be developed through expansion and new business and industry moving into the county. Ventura County needs to keep pace with San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange counties as computer software, entertainment and service industries continue to supplant heavy manufacturing, aerospace and defense, Schniepp said.

``We're not convinced that anything radical is occurring. We're not seeing any declines, but the rate of growth is troublesome,'' said the economic forecaster.

``We're thinking that it's just sort of a plateauing. That's just simply a part of the transition going on in Southern California right now,'' he said.

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2 Photos

Photo: (1--color in CONEJO edition only) The first of a planned 2,000 homes in the Dos Vientos development in Newbury Park are expected to be built this year. The outlook is positive for new construction across eastern Ventura County in 1997.

(2--ran in CONEJO edition only) Vehicles travel the main road into the Dos Vientos project, where 220 lots are ready for building.

Joe Binoya/Daily News