COUNTY FACES BIG CHANGES AGING RESIDENTS, HIGH HOME PRICES, FEWER STUDENTS IN REGION'S FUTURE.

Byline: ERIC LEACH

Staff Writer

SIMI VALLEY -- Ventura County's neighborhoods are relatively affluent and peaceful, but residents are facing potential changes from an aging population, high housing prices and traffic congestion that could bring more problems in the future, according to a report released last week.

A 2007 State of the Region Report released by the Ventura County Civic Alliance offers data and analysis focusing on a wide range of issues in the county, including education, environmental quality, natural resources, public safety, public health, the economy and transportation.

Architect Dao Doan, who was part of a panel discussion at California Lutheran University, where the report was released Tuesday, said many of the problems facing the county are related to urban sprawl, including traffic, threats to agricultural water sources, housing costs and even childhood obesity.

"We are building a community in such a way that the majority of kids have to be driven to school," he said. "They don't have that natural exercise."

He said homes are being built farther and farther out in the countryside at higher costs, making it difficult for young families to move here.

"If my kids have to move away because they can't afford to live here, where will they go?" he asked.

On the good side, the report says Ventura County has the lowest per capita crime rate of the 17 largest California counties with populations over 500,000. Ventura County's population is about 800,000. And the county's diverse economy is expected to continue growing at about 4 percent per year through 2011.

The median household income in the county was $66,859 in 2005, the latest figures available, but there are deep disparities depending on where people live.

The report cited 2000 Census figures showing Camarillo, Moorpark, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks with median household incomes between $62,000 and $76,000 and poverty rates of about 4 percent, compared with poverty rates of 12 percent to 13 percent in Fillmore, Oxnard and Santa Paula, where the median incomes were between $40,000 and $45,000.

The percentages of students who were considered overweight in 2004 in the fifth, seventh and ninth grades in Ventura County also varied from about 10 percent in Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley to about 35 percent in Oxnard and almost 40 percent in Santa Paula.

In the area of education, the report notes that enrollment in elementary and middle schools peaked in 2003 and has begun to drop, with a projected decline through 2009. Enrollment in high schools is projected to begin declining this year and will likely continue to decline through 2015, the report says.

Schools with falling enrollments "may therefore find a steadily greater share of their budgets devoted to fixed overhead, leaving them less to spend on materials, special programs and other programs that directly affect the classroom experience," according to the report.

David Maron, chairman of the Ventura County Civic Alliance, said part of the enrollment decline is probably related to the high cost of housing keeping young families out. And Jon Sonstelie, a University of California, Santa Barbara, economics professor, said school enrollment is flattening in much of California.

But he agreed that the Ventura County area's housing costs will aggravate the situation.

"A lot of communities along the coast are experiencing this declining enrollment. Here, it's particularly a problem," he said, adding that some districts might eventually be forced to stop hiring new teachers and might even have to lay off some.

"Low enrollment is a concern at all levels," said Kathryn Adams, a college English and psychology teacher. "Where the cost of housing is really high, you don't have a lot of young families moving in. There has been a significant drop in elementary (school) enrollment because of this. It is definitely a concern."

The report points out that the county's population is aging and growing at a rate of about 1 percent annually, with the median county home price about $695,000.

Stacy Roscoe, vice chairman of the Ventura County Community Foundation, said as older people with expertise in various professions reach retirement age, local businesses will face problems recruiting younger workers.

"The declining school enrollments are indicative of the younger families going away," he said. "Who is going to be left who can do the work? You've got a real brain drain."

The alliance is a volunteer group dedicated to engaging citizens in a dialogue on regional concerns to help promote a healthy future for the county. The report was developed by Charles Maxey, dean of CLU's School of Business.

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