COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS: NOVEMBER 1995.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 17, 1996--The composite index of leading indicators decreased 0.3 percent in November to 100.4 (1987 equals 100), according to preliminary estimates prepared by The Conference Board.

On the basis of revised estimates, the index decreased 0.5 percent in October and was unchanged in September. Over the six months from May to November, the index declined 0.7 percent.

Of the eight available indicators, four made negative contributions to the index in November. They are--in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest--change in sensitive materials prices, vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index), average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance, and consumer expectations. The positive contributors are--in order from the largest positive contributors to the smallest--stock prices, building permits and money supply in 1987 dollars. The average factory workweek was unchanged.

Because of the recent shutdown at the U.S. Department of Commerce, three of components of the leading index were unavailable: manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods and materials, contracts and orders for plant and equipment, and manufacturers' unfilled orders for durable goods. These components normally comprise 30 percent of the leading index and are expected to become available in mid-February. Their incorporation may cause a substantial revision to the leading index.

The composite index of coincident indicators was not computed for both November and October because only two of its four components were available and they comprise less than two thirds of the index weight. For similar reasons, the composite index of lagging indicators was not computed for November. The October figure, which was reported last month, has not been revised.

The composite indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in aggregate economic activity, while the cyclical turning points in the coincident index have occurred at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity. The cyclical turning points in the lagging index generally have occurred after those in aggregate economic activity. A change in direction in a composite index does not signal a cyclical turning point unless the movement is of significant size, duration, and scope.

For more information on these indexes, see the following articles in the U.S. Commerce Department's (Bureau of Economic Analysis division) monthly Survey of Current Business: "Business Cycle Indicators: Upcoming Revision of the Composite Indexes" (October 1993) and "The Composite Index of Coincident Indicators and Alternative Coincident Indexes" (June 1992).

Data on the composite indexes, their components, and related series will appear in the January 1996 issue of the "Business Cycle Indicators" section of the Survey of Current Business. That section will be discontinued after the January 1996 issue. Beginning in February, The Conference Board will produce a new report patterned after "Business Cycle Indicators" that will contain the composite indexes, their components, and related series. Current subscribers to the Survey of Current Business will receive the first three issues of this report free of charge. The composite indexes and related series will also be available from The Conference Board on diskette and from the Commerce Department on STAT-USA's Economic Bulletin Board. (See the box on page 3 for further information on data sources, publications and the release of the composite indexes.) -0-

NOTICE: Conference Board Now Publishing Composite Indexes In the past, these indexes were compiled and released by the Department of Commerce. The Conference Board was selected to take over preparation and dissemination of the composite cyclical indexes effective December 7, 1995. There has been no change in methodology. The date for the next release, originally scheduled for January 31, 1996, cannot be determined at this time, because of uncertainty about the availability of important components of the indexes. The Conference Board will announce a new date as soon as possible.

NOTICE

Following the joint Department of Commerce and Conference Board release on December 6, 1995, The Conference Board assumed sole responsibility for the composite index and their components. The Conference Board will provide these data to the public through widespread media distribution and mail and fax services similar to those now provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Conference Board had originally set the following release schedule for 1996. Because of changes in government data release schedules, it is possible that many of these dates will be changed.

Dec. data....TBA  Apr. data....June 3 Aug. data....Oct. 1

Jan. data....Mar. 5 May. data....July 2 Sept. data...Nov. 1

Feb. data....Apr. 2 June data....Aug. 5 Oct. data....Dec. 2

Mar. data....May 1 July data....Sept. 3 Nov. data....Dec. 27

Summary estimates of the composite indexes will be available from The Conference Board on a recorded message at the time of public release by calling [phone].

The following distribution services are available from The Conference Board:

Composite Index news release

Mail service annual subscription: $24

Fax Service annual subscription: $40

Business Cycle Indicators Report (annual subscription)

First class: $120

Second Class: $95

Foreign: $125

Diskettes

Annual subscription: $200

One-time purchase: $50

To order any of these services, or for more information, write to Customer Service, The Conference Board, 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022 or call [phone]. Please note that the Business Cycle Indicators Report and diskette service will not be available at least until late-February.

Data for the composite indexes and related series will continue to be accessible through the following services provided by the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA:

(1) Economic Bulletin Board (EBB). Use a personal computer

and modem, dial [phone], and follow instructions.

(2) Internet. http://www.stat-usa.gov/BEN/Services/beahome.html

and follow instructions.

(3) Fax. Quarterly and annual subscriptions are available.

For more information about these services, call [phone]. For information about other data and publications distributed by the Department of Commerce, write to Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230, or telephone [phone]. -0-

             Summary Table--Composite Indexes
                                         1995
                               Sept.     Oct.     Nov.

..............................................................
Composite Index Levels and percent change from preceding month
..............................................................

Leading index
 (1987 equals 100)             101.2    100.7    100.4p
  %Chg.                           .0r     -.5      -.3p

Coincident Index
 (1987 equals 100)             118.3     n.a.     n.a.
  %Chg.                           .2     n.a.     n.a.

Lagging Index
 (1987 equals 100)             102.2    102.4     n.a.
  %Chg.                           .0       .2     n.a.

CONTACT: Contacts at The Conference Board:

Professional Contacts: Media Contacts:

Michael Boldin: [phone] Randy Poe: [phone]

Bhashkar Mazumder: [phone] Frank Tortorici: [phone]

Recorded Message: [phone]