COMMENTARY\Growth projections meant to be taken with grain of salt.

Byline: Michael Kotch

When Hugh Grant, the actor, appeared on "The Tonight Show" after an embarrassing contretemps with a Hollywood hooker, Jay Leno's first question was "What the hell were you thinking?"

When the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and the Population Planning section of the county's Regional Planning Department issue massive growth projections for our valley - and when county and city decision makers (or others, such as school or water boards) accept these projections without scrutiny - the first question should be "What the hell were you smoking?"

Population projections are simultaneously treated with disdain and extreme reverence by planners.

The disrespect comes from the understanding that few long-term projections of growth (longer than, say the next five years) are accurate or credible. The economic cycles beyond just the Santa Clarita Valley make it impossible to analyze the rate of growth and thus plan for it.

The reverence arises from the protocol our governmental agencies have settled on. If SCAG or another agency of government states that there will be 500,000 people in the Santa Clarita Valley by 2010 (and not the 270,000 we had grown used to) many land-use decision makers and utility planners scurry to convert this tentative, speculative, unproven guesstimate into a goal. "SCAG has spoken, we must follow blindly!"

Suddenly, we are considering increased urban land uses, and increasingly expensive infrastructure, to support the goal. Even if the emperor is on parade without clothes.

A rational and sober analysis of this new "goal" for the Santa Clarita Valley:

We have, today, about 170,000 people living here in 56,700 dwellings.

To have 270,000 of us in the next 15 years means we need to accept 100,000 more bodies, or 33,000 or so new dwellings. That's a little more than 2,200 new dwellings sold every year, or six new homes sold per day, seven days a week.

To achieve 500,000 people in this valley by 2010 requires that we, starting today, sell 20 new homes per day - seven days a week, no holidays. A local real estate broker reported that 20 new units sold in a month is more typical. That's far short of the goal.

Our growth rate in the "booming '80s" was 5 percent per year. To achieve 270,000 we have to grow about 4 percent per year. Growth in the Santa Clarita Valley was under 2 percent per year over the last six years. Achieving 270,000 is plausible, but will not happen if our economy stays flat.

Housing 500,000 requires a 13 percent a year growth rate - a rate nearly three times that experienced in the expansive '80s. Can this be achieved, in a sustained manner, over the next 15 years? Highly unlikely. Yet these "numbers," by circulation, are starting to acquire a legitimacy and credibility, simply because Agency X told Agency Y that the planning figures for the SCV have been "updated."

We also have a problem of "approval inertia." Over the last six years the number of projects approved - especially by the county - has significantly exceeded the number of projects built. Every area of the Santa Clarita Valley now has "phantom projects." These are projects that were granted zoning changes and were allowed to have higher than the designated density, but have never been built; the market cannot absorb them. Several are in bankruptcy. Nearly all have applied for time extensions to keep the entitlements alive; these are routinely granted despite lack of progress. Some are covered by developer agreements that bind the county or city to keep these approvals valid for a decade or longer.

Whimsical projections and "approval inertia" severely affect service providers, such as the Castaic Lake Water Agency. This agency, like others, must plan capital improvements based on population projections. The cost to the water agency to accommodate 500,000 people in this valley is roughly estimated to be $726 million. If these dwellings aren't built when expected, agency taxpayers will be "on the hook" to make up any shortfall.

SCOPE - the Santa Clarita Organization to Plan the Environment - believes some housekeeping is in order. We offer these items for better planning:

Future population projections must not accept current tract approvals or applications as a firm commitment to a higher population base. Approvals and applications need to be weighted with uncertainty.

For planning purposes the county and city must be strict in terminating approvals on projects that are not being built. Extensions should be exceptional, not routine. General Plan amendments and zone changes must expire when the approval duration expires.

Development agreements should include language to bond and guarantee that the features offered by the applicant, in exchange for the agreement, will be provided on a definite schedule, even if the applicant goes bankrupt.

Any revision of population estimates for an area, either as an ongoing or contract activity, by any public agency should include a public hearing in the affected area to obtain local public review and input.

These measures will help to clear the smoke from the planning room.