COMMENT & ANALYSIS: BEHIND THE SPEAKER'S CHAIR: Smith should beware the IDS of March; Cheers for Tory leader are just for show R HIL.

Byline: CHRIS MONCRIEFF

DESPAIR! That was the word volunteered to me by a Tory MP the other day ab out the state of the Conservative Party leadership at Westminster. So,although the drums of war beat ever more loudly,let us not forget the little local difficulty that is at the moment confounding Her Majesty's Opposition.

Iain Duncan Smith,decent chap though he is, is simply not cutting the mustard.

And that is the view not merely of the so- called modernisers in the party,but also by those who share Mr Duncan Smith's own particular brand of Conservatism.

I would very much like to identify the MP with whom I was con-versing,but I promised not to. He said that the cheers which resound from the Opposition benches when Mr Duncan Smith rises in the Commons to challenge the PM are meaningless. They are,he said,just for show.

Because,he says, virtually the entire spectrum of the Conservative Party at Westminster is gradually coming to the unpalatable conclusion that Mr Duncan Smith has not grown into his job.

It had been the feeling that if the Conservatives did not make resounding gains at the forthcoming local government elections, then there would be a challenge to the leadership.

But now -and I have trawled around the back-benchers to find out what is going on - there is a growing feeling that however well or badly the Conservatives perform at these elections, there will be a chal-lenge,come what may. Most Tory MPs belie ve that although,in their view,he has done the right thing,in general terms,in supporting the Prime Minister over Iraq,his performance otherwise at Question Time in the Commons has not made much impact,in terms of the media,nor on Tony Blair himself.

In other words, thePrime Minister has been having a relatively easy ride, while some Labour MPs have even gone so far as to say that Iain Duncan Smith is their own secret weapon.

So,is IDS doomed? Well,most Tories now do not belie ve they can win the next general election with him at the helm.

And the aftermath of the local elections in May would seem to be the last chance they will have to mount a leadership challenge bef ore the next election becomes too close for comfort.