COLLEGES IN EYE OF THE STORM STUDENT TIDAL WAVE BEARING DOWN ON 2-YEAR CAMPUSES.

Byline: Lisa M. Sodders Staff Writer

California's 109 community colleges will be at the center of a ``perfect storm'' of conditions that threaten to overwhelm the state's ability to educate its citizens, according to a report released Tuesday.

Hundreds of thousands of students will be denied admission to the state's colleges and universities over the next decade, and even if corrective measures are taken, students won't see relief until 2007, according to the San Jose-based National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education's report, ``Ensuring Access with Quality to California's Community Colleges.''

``California's promise of higher education has been broken, and if we don't make changes right away, our children - and California's economy - will pay the price,'' said Patrick M. Callan, president of the center.

``No question, the light in the tunnel is a train, and it's coming full speed ahead,'' said Mark Drummond, chancellor of the California Community Colleges.

Business, civic and labor leaders announced the creation of the Campaign for College Opportunity, a statewide, grass-roots campaign to focus public policy-makers' attention on the growing crisis.

Community colleges in Los Angeles are expected to be particularly hard- hit because of shifting demographics, according to the report.

What report authors call ``Tidal Wave II'' is projected to add more than 700,000 students to California's higher education system in the next decade, with the Los Angeles, Los Rios, North Orange, Rancho Santiago and San Diego community college districts expected to post record enrollment numbers.

Also, Latinos are projected to make up nearly 80 percent of all high school graduates by 2010, but only 40 percent of the increase in community college enrollments.

If more Latinos choose community college, enrollment pressures will be particularly heavy in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Diego and San Bernardino counties.

There also is what the report authors call the ``silent tsunami'' of 18- to 24-year-olds who do not have high school diplomas - 300,000 in Los Angeles County alone - but will need postsecondary education to find jobs, said Darroch ``Rocky'' Young, acting senior vice chancellor for the nine-campus Los Angeles Community College District.

Peter Landsberger, acting chancellor, said the district could easily serve twice as many students as it does now if it could only get adequate state funding. Currently, the district serves about 200,000 individuals whose course loads make them the equivalent of 90,000 full-time students.

``We are frozen at a level that condemns us to be unable to adequately serve the current population as well as these people who are going to be turning to us in increasing numbers,'' Landsberger said.

``Unfortunately, California is consumed with near-term issues of this year's deficit and next year's deficit, and what's been lost is a focus on broader, longer-term social policies in California.''

But H.D. Palmer, spokesman for the governor's Department of Finance, said Schwarzenegger was taking steps to help.

``At a time when California must close a budget gap of $15 billion, the fact that Gov. Schwarzenegger is proposing a substantial increase in the budget for California's community colleges next year is proof positive of his commitment to maintaining a strong and growing community college system,'' Palmer said

For more information about the campaign, go to the Web site www.collegecampaign.org

Lisa M. Sodders, [phone]

lisa.sodders(at)dailynews.com