COLLEGE BASKETBALL SOUTH PREVIEW : CAN WAKE FOREST ACE ACC FOES?

Byline: David Droschak Associated Press 

Wake Forest can ask Kentucky how tough it is to fulfill expectations.

With preseason pencils sharpened, most basketball observers have picked the No. 4 Demon Deacons to win a third straight Atlantic Coast Conference title behind All-American center Tim Duncan and then breeze to the Final Four.

Not so fast. No team has won three straight ACC crowns since North Carolina did it in 1967-69, and the Demon Deacons must get by No. 8 North Carolina, No. 10 Duke and No. 20 Clemson in arguably the most talented league in the nation before even thinking about the postseason.

``You can't tag success by championships won because you can't win enough to satisfy everyone,'' said Wake Forest coach Dave Odom, who has won at least 21 games each of the past four seasons.

The return of the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Duncan, the ACC Player of the Year who opted to stay for his senior season instead of turning pro, has intensified anticipation on the Winston-Salem, N.C., campus and across the league, which placed a conference-high six teams in the NCAA field of 64 a season ago.

``We are not going to make it to the Final Four today or this week or this month,'' Duncan said. ``I think we have to progress and become a team that can compete when it gets to March.''

Wake Forest, 26-6 in each of the past two seasons, has advanced a step further in the NCAA Tournament each year of Duncan's career, being eliminated last season by eventual national champion Kentucky in the regional final.

And the Demon Deacons not only return Duncan up front but 6-10 Ricky Peral, a smooth 3-point shooter for his size, and 6-8, 230-pound rebounding force Sean Allen. Add 7-1 freshman Loren Woods and Wake Forest possesses the best frontcourt size in the ACC.

``There is no substitute for experience,'' Duncan said. ``You get out there and get into situations and you know how to react to them. That wins games for you right there. That's something that we have and something we will cherish and use this year.''

Meanwhile, North Carolina coach Dean Smith, beginning his 36th season, needs 26 victories to break Adolph Rupp's Division I-A all-time mark of 876 wins. The eighth-ranked Tar Heels have won at least that many games four times in the '90s.

North Carolina also has been to a record 22 straight NCAA Tournaments.

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski might be able to go 11 deep and reinstitute some of his pressure defense that has been missing the past few seasons, while Clemson and third-year coach Rick Barnes are looking to pull off a surprise with a veteran, yet relatively young squad.

Georgia Tech, last year's ACC regular-season champion, lost guards Stephon Marbury and Drew Barry in the NBA draft, and is picked to finish in the middle of the pack this time around.

Elsewhere in the ACC, former Miami of Ohio coach and Rick Pitino disciple Herb Sendek takes over for Les Robinson at N.C. State. Todd Fuller is gone to the NBA and Sendek might be forced to start 6-7 freshman Damon Thornton in the middle in a league that boasts such centers as Duncan, North Carolina's 7-2 Serge Zwikker and Duke's 6-10 Greg Newton.

In the Southeastern Conference, No. 3 Kentucky is a unanimous pick to win the Eastern Division, but the Wildcats (34-2) lost four players to the NBA draft and face a brutal early season schedule that includes No. 20 Clemson (on Friday), No. 12 Syracuse, Purdue, Indiana, Georgia Tech and Louisville.

Kentucky also plays No. 7 Villanova on Feb. 9 in Lexington, Ky.

``There is a formula for a championship and I think it holds true 90 percent of the time,'' said Pitino, whose club went 16-0 in the SEC a season ago. ``I think you need three NBA draft picks at the collegiate level. Now, the question comes do mind, do we have that?''

The Wildcats must replace NBA lottery pick Antoine Walker, first-rounders Tony Delk and Walter McCarty, and second-round pick Mark Pope.

``We have the potential to have three draft picks if not more. Ron Mercer is definitely ready to bust out and have an incredible year. He's a remarkable talent. Derek Anderson is also a terrific talent. Those two come to mind right away as people who can really shine.''

Mercer, a 6-7 sophomore forward, scored 20 points in the national-title game against Syracuse. The 6-5 Anderson, a senior, is Kentucky's leading returning scorer (9.4 points) and rebounder.

``I'm not concerned about the leadership being lost as much as the experience,'' Pitino added. ``When you lose four NBA draft picks that you have to replace, that's a lot, but we also have a lot coming back. Our depth will be very good, but it won't be as talented as a year ago.''

South Carolina was picked to finish second to Kentucky in the SEC East, having placed Larry Davis and Melvin Watson on the preseason all-conference team.

Arkansas, ranked No. 13, was picked to win the SEC's Western Division, followed by Auburn and Alabama.

Old Dominion and coach Jeff Capel, whose son plays guard for Duke, has five starters back and is the favorite to beat out Virginia Commonwealth and East Carolina in the Colonial Athletic Association.

Liberty's 6-10 shot-blocker Peter Aluma makes the Flames the favorite in the Big South, while the College of Charleston is the overwhelming pick to win the Trans America Conference behind 6-8, 250-pound center Thaddeous Delany and 6-4 Stacy Harris.

Western Carolina is the defending Southern Conference champion and has four starters returning from a team that threw a scare into Purdue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. However, perennial league power Tennessee-Chattanooga has size, speed, depth and five starters back from a disappointing 15-12 season a year ago.

Coppin State became the favorite in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference when 6-8 Terquin Mott made himself eligible for the NBA draft but returned to school, giving the Eagles five returning starters.

Southwestern Louisiana is a slight favorite in the well-balanced Sun Belt. Southern University should get back to the top of the SWAC. McNeese State is the Southland pick and it's Austin Peay in the Ohio Valley.

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Photo

Photo: After deciding not to turn pro after last season, All-American center Tim Duncan has Wake Forest gunning for a Final Four appearance.

Associated Press