COLISEUM A VIABLE NFL PLAYER? REPORT SAYS THE REFURBISHED SITE WOULD CREATE REVENUE.

Byline: Billy Witz Staff Writer

The NFL's return to a renovated Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum would generate $309 million in direct and indirect spending and even more for hosting a Super Bowl every five years, according to a study commissioned by the Coliseum.

The report, prepared by Conventions, Sports & Leisure, International, Inc., includes projections on tax revenue, jobs and ticket prices, as well as providing the first glimpse of the financial picture surrounding the nearly $500 million reconstruction proposal that would turn the 81-year-old facility into a state-of-the-art football stadium.

The average ticket price, using 2004 dollars, would be $67.26, which would tie the Kansas City Chiefs for the third-highest average ticket price in the NFL this season, according to a Team Marketing Report survey this month. Only the New England Patriots ($75.33) and the Washington Redskins ($68.12) would be higher.

Coliseum Commission President Bernard Parks touted the 15-page draft, a copy of which was obtained by the Daily News, as proof that a deal with the NFL would not only be good for football fans, but for the local economy.

``When I talk to people about the NFL returning and they ask about tickets, I tell them point-blank that they're missing the point,'' said Parks, the 8th District councilman whose district includes the Coliseum.

``Football is a catalyst for economic development. The numbers tell the NFL that this is a market that can support a team.''

Some economists aren't so sure. They question revenue projections and the value of the various types of many part-time and seasonal jobs, and they wonder whether a community that is lukewarm about the NFL's return would support a franchise whose ticket prices would be among the league's highest.

``The numbers seem a trifle rich to me,'' said Jack Kyser, the chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation.

According to the report, an NFL team would produce $151 in annual personal earnings - more than half of that in player salaries - that would spur $8.3 million in state income tax revenue. It would also create $6.1 million in annual state, county and city tax revenues and 4,300 jobs.

``The question is how much money is going to stay in the community long-term?'' said Patrick Rishe, an assistant professor of economics at Webster University in St. Louis. ``The number that gets more press is the impact on total output, but really the best measure of long-term economic benefit is how much of the local income, taxes and other property type income is going to stay local.''

Parks says recent legislation extending the life of the Hoover Redevelopment Zone will help do that. If development around the Coliseum increases, the additional tax revenues generated - known as a tax increment - would be siphoned off. Forty percent would go to infrastructure in the area surrounding Exposition Park, while 20 percent would go into new housing.

``Those are site-specific,'' Parks said. ``But, then again, if there's other businesses in the area that are important to the NFL, people that own those business will benefit from this relationship.''

Rishe, who has conducted economic-impact analyses for other commissions, dismissed the impact of job creation.

``These numbers are hard to take seriously because of the types of jobs,'' Rishe said. ``Some are seasonal and part time, and a lot of them aren't skilled or high-paying. It's not the same as a Fortune 500 company moving in.''

Parks, whose district has lost 39 percent of its jobs in the past 10 years, says he would welcome any type of new job.

``I wouldn't suspect a job in the stadium is something you start your family with,'' Parks said. ``But it's certainly a supplemental income and, for young people, money in the pocket where they can be responsible for some of the things they need to get.''

The renovation of the Coliseum, an estimated two-year project, would create 4,900 jobs, many of them well-paying if only short-term, according to the study. They would generate an estimated $214 in total personal earnings and produce $18.1 million in sales and income tax revenues.

The big economic carrot, though, is the Super Bowl, which the study expected would be played at the Coliseum every five years.

The projected direct spending for a Super Bowl is $194 million, with the total output estimated at $377 million. It is expected to produce nearly $10 million in state, county and city sales-tax revenue.

While there is much debate in academic circles about the true economic impact of sports teams, there is no question that the Super Bowl - since it attracts so many visitors - creates rather than redistributes output.

``A Super Bowl is a different type of beast,'' Kyser said. ``There's a lot of corporate entertaining done around the Super Bowl and special events leading up to it. This is why everybody chases after a Super Bowl. There's a huge influx of new money into your economy.''

In addition to the Coliseum, the NFL is considering three other sites - the Rose Bowl, Carson and Anaheim - for a return to Los Angeles, which has been without pro football since the Rams and Raiders left after the 1994 season.

The NFL is in the midst of vetting the four proposals and expects to make a decision on where - or if - it would return by May 2005. Commissioner Paul Tagliabue said the league's goal is to have a team in Los Angeles for the 2008 season.

No matter where it built a stadium, the NFL is expected to foot most - if not all - of the bill, then pass the cost on to the new tenant. With ticket, club seat and suite price projections, this report provides the first hint on how a tenant would recoup some of its investment in what would be a three-tier, 75,000-seat stadium.

The average club-seat ticket would cost $165, which is just about the league average ($160.89). But many of the newer stadiums, such as Reliant Stadium in Houston and Chicago's renovated Soldier Field, require personal seat licenses that sometimes hit five figures. It is not clear whether PSLs are expected to be part of the equation in Los Angeles, but the Coliseum's 14,250 club seats are 6,000 more than in Houston or Chicago.

The most expensive seats are in the 190 suites, which cater to corporations and would fetch an average of $130,288, providing tickets and suite access to every event at the Coliseum for the year. Suites at Staples Center range from $200,000 to $350,000 per year, depending on their size, but with the Lakers, Clippers, Kings, Sparks, the Pac-10 Conference basketball tournament and concerts, it's home to nearly 300 events a year.

``That's pretty steep,'' Kyser said of the Coliseum's projections. ``In a smaller market, the NFL gives them a civic identity. In L.A., there's no need for that type of validation. The first year there will be the enthusiasm of a new team, but in the second year there's more competition for the dollar. USC is a legitimate competitor right now. There's the buzz of a national championship and everybody likes that. It's a tough market.''

Maybe not too tough. The Rose Bowl's projections for suite, club and seat prices are higher than the Coliseum's, according to Rose Bowl point man John Moag, who declined to be any more specific. That could be attributed in part to two factors: the value placed on the location of the two stadiums and the Rose Bowl's capacity being about approximately 10,000 fewer than the Coliseum.

Anaheim and Carson, which haven't received stadium plans from the NFL, have not yet done any economic impact studies.

The Coliseum projections are merely a gauge, and the NFL is also doing its own market research. While the study estimates what fans would spend on food, beverages and merchandising, there's no projections on big-ticket revenue streams, such as stadium naming rights and sponsorship deals.

Also, the terms of the deal - what stake in the revenue (or cost) would USC and the Coliseum Commission take - must be negotiated.

Nevertheless, Parks says, the study shows that the Coliseum is a site that can work for an NFL club.

``This is not a situation where whoever gets in here is upside down,'' Parks said. ``There's some great potential revenue and secondary revenue that's as great as the primary revenue. The key is, it has to be marketed; you can have an owner drive it into the ground and not make these projections.

``I was talking to (Cowboys owner) Jerry Jones recently, and he said that whoever comes in here, they're going to be stretched by this investment. The amount of money (invested) is going to put the owner on his tiptoes trying to make it work. But if you have somebody dynamic who is willing to spend 20 hours a day selling the product, the reward is going to be significant.''

ASSUMPTIONS SUMMARY

Preseason games 2

Regular season games 8

Preseason attendance 69,858

Regular season attendance 74,100

Suites sold 190

Avg. suite price $130,288

Club seats sold 14,250

Avg. club seat price $1,650

Avg. ticket price $67.26

Food & beverage spending per capita $11.82

Merchandise spending per capita $1.25

Out-of-stadium spending $35

Lodging spending $125

Pct. of fans using lodging 10%

Lodging spending (Super Bowl) $150

Pct. of fans using lodging (Super Bowl) 95%

CAPTION(S):

box

Box:

ASSUMPTION SUMMARY (see text)