CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF BLACKOUTS?

Byline: Staff and Wire Services

Californians will soon be waking up to the weather, the traffic - and a blackout forecast.

The operator of the state's electricity grid said Monday that it will start issuing forecasts 24 hours ahead of expected rolling blackouts.

The agency also promised to give 30 minutes' warning before it orders utilities to pull the plug on homes and businesses, a move that could prevent traffic crashes, stuck elevators and costly shutdowns at factories.

Up to now, the agency has refused to give more than a few minutes' warning, saying it did not want to alarm people when there was still a chance that a last-minute purchase of power could stave off blackouts. The utilities have also resisted giving warnings, saying they did not want to tip off burglars and other criminals.

``People are asking for additional notice, so we're doing our best to make that a reality,'' said Lorie O'Donley, a spokeswoman for the California Independent System Operator, which manages the state's power grid.

Others believed a half-hour was not enough of a warning.

``I think it should be more than 30 minutes,'' said George Aguilar, an animal control officer in El Monte. ``It should be at least eight hours.''

Because of the lack of notice, the six days of rolling blackouts to hit the state so far this year have led to pileups at intersections suddenly left without stoplights, people trapped in elevators, and losses caused by stopped production lines. People with home medical equipment like oxygen fear they will be cut off without warning.

Also Monday, state Controller Kathleen Connell raised concerns about Gov. Gray Davis' energy plan.

Connell said less than 1 percent of the state's energy has been purchased through long-term contracts in 2001, despite the administration's plan to buy 11 percent at this point.

``To reach 11 percent by midyear, we would need $890 million worth of long-term contracts over the next five weeks. We don't think that's likely to happen,'' she said.

Connell also questioned Davis' plan to cover surging energy prices through rate increases.

The Department of Water Resources has projected that the state needs to generate $9.2 billion through rate increases to cover energy costs, while a recent rate hike will bring in about $7.5 billion.

``That's a gap of $1.7 billion, which means that to pay for the energy needs of the state, there's going to need to be a subsequent rate increase.''

Davis' experts said their estimates are conservative, and assume the state's consumers and businesses cut total electricity use 7 percent - a figure that is being reached, said chief energy adviser S. David Freeman.

``That just knocks the stuffing out of the demand,'' Freeman said, driving down prices as well.

In a related development, Republicans criticized Davis for spending tax money on what they described as ``a partisan, cutthroat political communications firm'' that includes Chris Lehane, Vice President Al Gore's press secretary, and Mark Fabiani, a deputy campaign manager for Gore's presidential run, for six months at $30,000 a month.

Davis said the firm will coordinate the governor's communications staff on energy issues and help recruit a new director of communications.