CLIMBING TEMPERATURES JANUARY A DRY RUN FOR BAD FIRE SEASON?

Byline: Ryan Oliver Staff Writer

While much of the nation shivered through a cold and snowy January, Southern California basked in one of the warmest and driest starts to a new year ever.

With an average high of 74.1 degrees in Los Angeles, this is the third hottest January since 1877 and a full 6 degrees hotter than average, state climate officials reported Thursday. It is also one of only four times that there has been no measurable rainfall in January since record-keeping began 126 years ago.

This ranks as just about perfect with everybody except Angeles National Forest Fire Chief Don Feser, who worries when the weather is this nice in the ``rainy'' season. He's sweating it out now, knowing firefighters may be waging some pitched battles in the months to come if rain doesn't arrive soon.

``The drought cycle we're in is the driest in 150 years,'' Feser said.

``We're pushing some new ground here, at least in the standpoint of our lifetime. Whatever soil moisture is in the ground is starting to dry up, and so whatever grasses we've received as a result of the moisture a few months ago is starting to dry up,'' he said.

Not only is the brush dry and ready to provide ample fuel for a spreading wildfire, but even large trees, normally resilient to periods of drought, are starting to wither and die.

Rainfall in the forest since Oct. 1 has amounted to about 5 inches to 8 inches at various locations, about 30 percent of what normally falls. The forest has been in a drought pattern since 1997 and was particularly hard hit last year, the driest year on record, Feser said.

``It's getting critical,'' he said. ``Every year it compounds itself, there's a cumulative effect.''

Among those most surprised by this month's weather were forecasters at the National Weather Service, whose long-range predictions back in December were calling for a cooler and wet January, citing an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific.

``November through March is our rainy time and our biggest rainfall is in January and February,'' said Weather Service specialist Stuart Seto.

Downtown Los Angeles reported only a trace of rain this month, the least amount of rain for a January since 1976, when no rain fell at all in the time period. A trace is less than 0.01 of an inch, or what the NWS considers measurable rainfall. The only other years of no measurable precipitation in January were in 1972 and 1948.

Seto said the downtown total for the rain year, which begins July 1, has been 5.73 inches, 20 percent below normal.

He said the dry January came as a high-pressure system stalled off the coast and deflected moisture north into Oregon and Washington.

The average high temperature of 74.1 degrees for the month was only slightly below the record warm January in 1986 when it averaged 75.4 degrees.

San Diego was the only major California city to actually break its January record for average high temperatures, recording 71.2 degrees over the month.

State climatologist William Mork said this weather might seem contrary to the fact there's an El Nino weather pattern in effect. But he said the El Nino pattern is relatively weak compared with previous years.

He added, however, that long-range forecasts are calling for a return to cooler and wet weather in February. But after forecasters were so off the mark for January, Mork said, he wasn't putting much stock in the predictions.

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2 photos

Photo:

(1 -- 2 -- color) At top, Robert Passerini of Thousand Oaks takes advantage of a sunny Thursday at Stoney Point Park in Chatsworth. Alemany JV water polo player Courtney Drosowski takes a water break during a game against Louisville at Pierce College.

Michael Owen Baker/Staff Photographer

Tina Burch/Staff Photographer