CITY STARTS PLANNING CENSUS PARTICIPATION.

Byline: Angela M. Lemire Staff Writer

Stand and be counted.

That's the message that Santa Clarita will deliver to all city residents from now until the next 10-year U.S. Census is held in April.

While 10 months may seem like a long time off, the city Planning Department is getting a jump on preparations because of the significant financial impact the next census is expected to have on the city budget for the next decade.

So much is riding on the census, in fact, that city officials have budgeted $50,000 for the fiscal year that began on Thursday to encourage public cooperation. The line item will pay for marketing materials and services to inform the public about the importance of the census, said Jeff Lambert, the city's planning department chief.

``The census is a huge issue,'' Lambert said. ``There will be a huge financial impact if we've undercounted . . . it comes out to more than $100 that we'd lose per person - per year - from the federal government.''

The city now is forming an ad hoc committee composed of planners, school officials and leaders of the senior citizens community to brainstorm the marketing campaign and develop an action plan, Lambert said. The school districts most likely will be used as vehicles to get the word out to much of the community, he said.

``We expect to hit the ground running in January,'' he said.

Municipalities rely on the 10-year census to factor population totals into applications for subsidies from a variety of state and federal sources, such as Community Development Block Grants or local aid for transportation infrastructure and education.

With the rapid rate of residential development over the last decade leaving previous population estimates questionable, the next census also will provide officials with a better understanding of the housing boom's impact on Santa Clarita, as well as solid figures to forecast future growth. Such figures are used by planners to predict communities' specific needs in municipal services, including senior centers, water supplies, sewer systems, education, public safety, open space and recreation.

Santa Clarita's current population is estimated at 147,000.

Since the 1991 census, city staff have updated the city's estimated population annually, by adding an average three-person household for every new dwelling unit built in the city, based on building permits issued, according to Lambert.

Figures from the last census, taken four years after the city's incorporation, project Santa Clarita's population to hit 270,000 by the year 2010, officials said.

Although that would mean the city's population would have to nearly double in the next 11 years to reach that mark, experts' predictions from 1991 so far are on target, given the rate of development, Lambert said.

``It'll be close - maybe up there around 260,000 to 265,000,'' he said.

Another recent population study, completed by Chi Systems Division of San Diego for Henry Mayo Newhall Memorial Hospital in January, projects that 299,532 people would be living within the Santa Clarita Valley, including unincorporated areas outside city limits, by the year 2010, based on its lowest growth-rate scenario.

The firm attributes several factors to the area's growth potential, including ``sufficient water and sewer capacity,'' the valley's attraction as a ``new home community,'' present general plans of both the city of Santa Clarita and Los Angeles County, forecasted statewide growth and the market demand from existing residents in Los Angeles County seeking new residential areas.

The same study predicts the Santa Clarita Valley's population will boom to 430,361 persons by 2030 - a 242 percent increase.