CITY MAY FIGHT FIRE WITH FIRES.

Byline: Lee Condon Daily News Staff Writer

Hillsides at Encino Reservoir, Franklin Canyon, Fryman Canyon and Will Rogers State Park top the city's list of high-hazard fire areas, firefighters say.

As a result, they are focusing brush-clearing efforts in those areas - including Los Angeles' first controlled burns since 1990.

Although the fire season has been mild so far this year, firefighters are acting with an added sense of urgency. Their data show that the second year after a winter of El Nino rains can produce disastrous wildfires.

``Next year's a killer,'' said Frank Vidales, a deputy forester for the Los Angeles County Fire Department. ``The second year after an El Nino we get nailed.''

City officials targeted those four areas in applying for a $415,000 Federal Emergency Management Agency grant as they try to use historical trends to predict - and prevent - future wildfires.

Those canyons in and around the San Fernando Valley make the top of the list because wildfires haven't burned through them in five decades, officials said. For every year that goes by without a fire, 1 percent of the brush in an area dies off, making the hillsides dryer and dryer, said Rod Wilmot, a city fire battalion chief in the San Fernando Valley.

Wilmot is on the steering committee that wants to use another federal grant to identify and prioritize other brush clearance projects in the city.

In the Valley, Wilmot said he hopes to see Griffith Park, more parts of Laurel and Coldwater canyons and the north face of the Santa Monica Mountains in the West Valley make future lists.

It's part of a statewide effort, known as the California Fire Plan, to identify the highest risk areas for wildfires. In another year or so, county officials hope to complete computer modeling of high hazard sites.

``There is a push to have everyone singing from the same sheet of music,'' Wilmot said.

Over at the county Fire Department, officials have been looking at the historical link between rainfall and the outbreak of major wildfires in the two years that follow.

They found that the amount of acreage burned increases dramatically in the second year after a rainy winter.

So far, the 1998 fire season has been mild because vegetation is relatively moist and there have been few episodes of Santa Ana winds.

While it might seem that the region has weathered the post-El Nino threat with little consequence, El Nino's fire legacy will last at least through the fall of 1999.

Herbert Spitzer, an assistant chief for the county Fire Department's forestry division, said rainy years cause major growth in vegetation.

``The problem with El Nino is you get all this abundance of grasses and the annual type of vegetation. You have that build-up factor,'' Spitzer said.

While fire officials have various theories about when the post-El Nino problem will kick in, Spitzer found that there is risk in both the first and second year after major rain.

Between 1919 and 1993, there have been an average of 10 wildfires in the county's jurisdiction larger than 100 acres in size a year. These larger wildfires consumed an average of 24,000 acres a year.

The most mild fire year was in 1952 when just two large fires consumed 228 acres.

But 1952 was also one of the rainiest years on record: 26.21 inches, well above the county average of 14.96 inches per year.

Then 1953 was one of the worst fire years this century. Records show 118,469 acres burned in 22 major fires.

The patterns repeated with heavy rains in 1969 and major fires in 1970; heavy rains in 1978 and major fires in 1979.

The worst fire year on record for the county was 1919, when 135,000 acres were burned up in Roberts Canyon in the San Gabriel Valley and in the Big Tujunga area just three days apart that September.

While the fire occurred a year after an above-average rainfall year, fire officials noted that neither area had burned for more than 34 years.

Fire officials are careful to say they can't even begin to try to predict wildfires. Still, firefighters have their eye on sites that have not burned in a long time and would pose a particular threat should they spread to residential areas.

``That's a very big factor,'' Wilmot said. ``After 10 years of growth, a plant has a 10 percent dead factor. If only 10 percent of the plant is dead, it's easier to control.''

But in an area like the 945 acres surrounding Encino Reservoir, there has not been a major fire in more than 50 years, meaning more than 50 percent of the vegetation is likely dead, Wilmot said.

It's also right in the middle of an area where firefighters fear a difficult fire under the right wind conditions.

``The most likely fire is going to be starting up along the (405) freeway and then heading over toward Pacific Palisades,'' Wilmot said.

Fryman Canyon, on the west side of Laurel Canyon Boulevard on the Valley side of the Santa Monica Mountains, and Franklin Canyon, on the city side of Laurel Canyon, also have not burned in about 50 years.

Firefighters fear any activity in the Laurel and Coldwater canyon areas because there are so many homes in close proximity to the brush, Wilmot said.

``If you look at the rate of spread in the Malibu Canyon fire, with it moving two miles and hour, if we had a fire that spread that fast in this area we'd have a serious problem getting people out,'' Wilmot said.

The department chose these four areas as the first to be targeted for a variety of reasons, including that the city has access to the publicly-owned land and that the work they want to do fits with the $415,000 budget for the FEMA grants.

In recent years the city and county fire departments have used most of their resources on making sure vegetation is cleared in a 200-foot perimeter around homes, mostly through programs that force homeowners to clear their property.

Those efforts, fire officials said, are far more critical than removing vegetation from hillsides because they greatly reduce the risk of losing homes to fire.

The city has not done any prescribed burns since 1990, mostly because of a lack of money, Wilmot said. The FEMA grant, if approved, would provide the money needed to start doing the controlled burns again.

City officials hope to start clearing the targeted areas by the middle of next year after securing the grant from FEMA and getting City Council approval.

After this first round of clearing, Wilmot said he has his eye on clearing brush in Griffith Park. His fear there is that if Santa Ana winds gust up during a fire, homes in the Hollywood Hills and Los Feliz would be at risk.

``I see that as a significant problem that needs to be addressed by every means we have,'' Wilmot said.

While the San Fernando Valley has a lot of overgrown brush, he said that historically the department has been able to keep fires there under control. The biggest problem in fighting fires here is Santa Ana winds, and the Valley is blessed in part because such winds typically gust from north to south, meaning the city side of the Santa Monica Mountains is where fires will head, Wilmot said.

``The San Fernando Valley is typically not as threatened because of the winds,'' he said. ``The city has been lucky.''

CAPTION(S):

map

Map: Southland controlled burns