CITY CAP VOTE URGED SUPPORTERS BACK SLOWER GROWTH.

Byline: Heather MacDonald Staff Writer

SANTA CLARITA - Geographic and economic constraints would most likely render a proposed ballot initiative designed to cap growth within the city limits moot, according to officials and population projections.

Councilman Frank Ferry, who proposed the initiative, acknowledged that the slumping economy and the dwindling amount of unbuilt land now earmarked for homes could take the teeth out of a proposal that would allow the City Council to approve just 3,000 homes over the next 10 years.

``If the economy or geography drives a slowdown, I'd be thrilled,'' Ferry said. ``And I think the general public would be too. However, the initiative would give everyone, including the City Council, a comfort level.''

Under Ferry's Santa Clarita First Initiative, about 8,500 homes could be built in Santa Clarita before the initiative would stop development. The proposal provides for several exemptions from the cap, including about 5,300 homes already approved by the City Council.

``We can't know what will happen,'' Ferry said. ``There are too many unknowns, like annexations and changes to the general plan. I can't predict the future. But I can take steps to protect it.''

Ferry said his initiative was spurred by the city's clogged roads, overcrowded schools and lack of park space.

Based on the average number of building permits issued each year by city officials since 1990, city Planning Manager Vince Bertoni said he would expect developers to build - on average - about 400 homes a year over the next decade.

Ferry said basing growth projections on past yearly averages may not be a reliable way to predict the future. He pointed to the apartment buildings now being built in the Town Center area of Valencia as an example. That land was originally slated for commercial or industrial developments.

``You could never have predicted the last five years from the first five years of the 1990s,'' Ferry said. ``There are so many unknowns, so many intangibles.''

An average of 200 homes a year were built from 1990-1996, while an average of 862 homes a year were built from 1996-2000, according to permits issued by the city.

``We can't allow that growth to happen again,'' Ferry said. ``We have to define managed growth.''

If the current slowdown does not mushroom into a full-fledged recession, Santa Clarita could sustain an average of 600 new homes a year from 2002-2012, according to Bertoni.

``A lot of the growth that we will experience inside the city limits is already entitled,'' Bertoni said. ``There will come a time in the next decade when we aren't building.''

However, data compiled by the Southern California Association of Governments estimate that nearly 9,500 homes will be built in Santa Clarita over the next decade. If passed, Ferry's initiative would prevent about 1,000 of those homes from being built.

While city officials and representatives from SCAG agree that Santa Clarita's population will grow to about 167,000 people in 2010, Bertoni believes that SCAG's housing estimates are too ambitious.

``There are little places in Canyon Country and Newhall that have development potential, but that's about it,'' Bertoni said, looking at an aerial map of Santa Clarita.

Although a relatively new city, Santa Clarita is already approaching build out. The Newhall Land and Farming Company, the area's largest developer, expects Valencia to be complete by 2005.

Newhall Land officials expect their last major development within the city to be the Panhandle, north of the Santa Clara River and Soledad Canyon Road. A mixed-use development is in the early development stages, with plans for 1,500 homes, condominiums and apartments, said company spokeswoman Marlee Lauffer.

The rest of the company's projects are commercial developments, Lauffer said, which are exempt from Ferry's proposed cap.

No other developer is considering building projects of more than a few hundred homes.

Jim Sims, SCAG's director of information services, said the initiative, if approved by voters, would push growth elsewhere in the region, most likely into Ventura County and the Antelope Valley.

``It is like a balloon,'' Sims said. ``If you push it in one place, it will expand in another.''

Newhall Land is focusing on new home developments outside the city limits, west of the Golden State Freeway. More than 40,000 homes are slated to be built in the unincorporated areas surrounding the city.

Sims said SCAG's data show that the initiative would increase the pressure to develop these areas, which includes land designated by the county as significant ecological areas.

``If Ferry was serious about managing growth, he would oppose Newhall Ranch and projects outside the city,'' said Lynne Plambeck, first vice president of Santa Clarita Organization for Planning and the Environment. SCOPE has challenged the 21,615-home project in court.

Ferry said the city's hands were tied outside its boundaries after the Local Agency Formation Commission rejected Santa Clarita's bid to expand its influence past the city limits.

``We can do something within our own boundaries,'' Ferry said. ``That's our only option.''

Conal McNamara, Supervisor Michael Antonovich's planning deputy, said it was tough to speculate about what would happen in the Santa Clarita Valley over the next decade.

In the long run, McNamara said, the best way to address growth in schools, roads and parks in the Santa Clarita Valley would be through the joint general plan that city and county officials have been working on for the last year.

``An artificial number cap might preclude good developments with needed amenities, like schools,'' McNamara said.

City staff is examining Ferry's proposed initiative and will report to the full City Council on Aug. 28. Ferry will ask his fellow council members to place the initiative on the ballot; if they refuse, he vowed he will launch a signature drive to allow voters to decide the issue in the April 2002 election.

None of the council members have endorsed Ferry's plan.

Ferry, along with Mayor Laurene Weste, is facing re-election next year.