CISA's 2001 business meeting draws 79 to prepare for vital year of 'Healthy Economic Expansion'. (Metalcasting Associations).

A total of 79 members of the Casting Industry Suppliers Assn. (CISA) gathered in Rosemont, Illinois, on November 14-16 for the association's Annual Business Meeting & Business Outlook. Of the six presentations, two in particular focused immediate attention on an important coming year. Allen Konopacki, INCOMM Center for Research and Sales Training, provided practical strategies to make the most out of the once-every-three-years AFS CastExpo trade show opportunity and David Littmann, chief economist for Comerica Bank, and shared his insight into 2002 economy (described below).

Littmann sees "a healthy and lengthy economic expansion immediately ahead, even if it got derailed by the September 11 attacks. We're poised for excellent growth in '02--lots better than most forecasters realize."

While he trimmed back earlier estimates, Littmann maintains his growth expectations for this year due to several reasons. These include: the Central Bank's injection of more liquidity than expected; lower energy prices reflecting steady oil supplies in the face of sluggish economies; faster government spending on '02's critical elections; accumulating stimulation from tax rebates and those possibly yet to come; recovery of last year's deferred consumer spending in '02; return of the wealth effect as stock markets accelerate in tandem with monetary stimulus; improved purchasing power and consumer confidence as inflation and borrowing costs fall; feedback on U.S. exports from foreign economic improvement after mid-year; and accelerated federal spending on military and defense-related projects.

Littmann said the U.S. real GDP should accelerate to 2.5% in '02 while inflation should fall to about 1.5%. He also noted that while '01 auto and light truck sales were likely to finish the year down by 500,000 units, such a sales rate would remain the second-best auto sales year in history. He believes that '02 could approach '01's pace because of some impressive fundamentals.

"After all, scrappage rates jumped 22% in '01 alone, reflecting the auto demand replacement cycle which is kicking in. Also, U.S. demographics of the Baby Boomers and rising incomes are upscaling the outlays on vehicles for the next seven years. Drivers license issuance rates and vehicle registration rates also are on strong uptrends--the auto industry is well-positioned in the years immediately ahead."

He concluded that a 10-year economic expansion can still transcend the profound slowing of last year. "It's not just the short-term monetary and fiscal policy expedients," he said, "it's also the very favorable age structure of our population, our unparalleled technology and the global trends toward freer trade."

Other presentations covered Export Risk Mitigation (Michael Howard, Export-Import Bank of the U.S.); Maximum Achievable Control Technology (Jonathan Stone, HA-International); Changes in Quality Systems, (Vic LaFay, The Hill & Griffith Co.); and '02 Metal China (John McKelvie, consultant).

The new organizational structure of CISA also was introduced at the meeting. CISA International is now open to all members and will function as one of five "groups," complementing Credit, Consumables, Equipment, Marketing and Industry Issues. The meeting also officially ushered in CISA's new officers for '01-'02. These include: President--Paul Kjelstrom, Hickman Williams & Co.; 1st Vice President--George Whitehead, FargoWear; 2nd Vice President--Jonathan Stone, HA International; and Past President--Bill Nimmo, Hunter Automated Machinery.