CIRB: State Construction Down but 2005 Looks Promising.

LOS ANGELES -- California's construction activity for November totals $5.96 billion, down 9.8 percent from October 2004, but up 25.6 percent from November 2003.

According to statistical data gathered by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB), all construction sectors were down for the month of November. "Normally we see a big drop off for the month of November in most sectors," says Ben Bartolotto, Director of the Research Board, "so a nearly ten percent drop is not out of character. Chalk it up to a seasonal decline."

Bartolotto says the bigger picture is revealed in the year-to-date figures for all construction sectors. Private building construction, which includes residential and nonresidential (commercial) construction, totals $55.2 billion, up $6.64 billion, or 13.9 percent from the same period last year. Public works construction, which includes both public building construction and heavy (civil works) construction, totals $16.3 billion, up $921.2 million, or 6.0 percent from the same period in 2003. As a result, California total construction activity, year-to-date after eleven months of 2004, is $71.60 billion. This is a 12.0 percent increase from the same period in 2003.

In the face of fiscal and financial uncertainties, public works construction in November tumbled 28.1 percent. Part of that is attributed to seasonal conditions. CIRB Director Bartolotto says this sector is continuing "to hold its own year-to-date and we are forecasting a 1.3 percent increase into 2005." The same goes for private nonresidential building which was down 11.2 percent in November but year-to-date is up $1.58 billion, or 12.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2003 which follows three consecutive years of decline. CIRB is forecasting private nonresidential building to increase 7.7 percent in 2005.

So, how are we doing? CIRB analysts are forecasting the total volume of construction in California in 2005 to increase slightly by 1.1 percent to $78.05 billion. All construction sectors, both private and public, with the exception of fractional declines in school construction and roads and bridge construction, are expected to increase in 2005.

Thanks to an improving economy, and with one month to go in 2004, CIRB is estimating total construction volume for 2004 will total $77.17 billion, up 3.7 percent from 2003, which showed a 5.9 percent increase that year.