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Byline: BILLY WITZ

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, after careful examination of the latest worker-productivity figures and rising consumer demand, declared last week the United States economy would soon begin generating more jobs.

Translation: he's watched the Redskins play.

And the Falcons, Raiders and Chargers.

The NFL coaching job market, according to the leading economic indicators - namely, wins and losses - could see a flurry of activity this winter. Beyond those Failing Four, the fate of as many as 10 other coaches might rest on how their teams play over the season's final eight weeks.

The dictum for NFL coaches has changed greatly in the past 10 years. Thanks to free agency, which disrupted continuity, and the early expansion success of Jacksonville and Carolina in the mid-'90s, which lowered the bar for instant gratification, it is now simple. Win today or gone tomorrow.

Long gone are the days of Tom Landry, Don Shula, Chuck Noll, Bud Grant, Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh. Or even Ray Malavasi. The average coaching tenure in the NFL last season was a mere 4.3 years - and dropping.

Nowhere is this case of irrational exuberance more acute than in the nation's capital.

All of Washington was a twitter this week over the fate of Redskins coach Steve Spurrier, whose team has lost four in a row and sits in last place in the NFC East.

When he was hired less than two years ago, given a $25 million contract over five years, Spurrier said if he couldn't get the Skins turned around in three years it would be time for owner Dan Snyder to find another coach.

Now, the question is whether he'll make it through the season.

According to a New York Post gossip-column item, Snyder plans to negotiate a settlement with Spurrier and already has offered the job to someone else. Meanwhile, Spurrier's name has begun to surface in the college ranks.

The Fun 'n' Gun offense that Spurrier brought with him from Florida has turned into the Chuck 'n' Duck for second-year quarterback Patrick Ramsey, who has been sacked 26 times and been knocked from the last three games.

There's also been questions raised about the coaching staff's lack of NFL experience and overall competence. For USC fans, this criticism can be neatly summed up in four words: offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.

To that end, Snyder flew in former NFL assistants Joe Bugel and Foge Fazio during a bye week to look at film and offer their criticisms. There's also been disputes with veterans such as defensive end Bruce Smith and reports that Spurrier fired offensive line coach Kim Helton, then changed his mind.

Only slightly more secure is Oakland coach Bill Callahan, who has managed this improbable feat: taking his team to the Super Bowl as a rookie coach and then ``losing'' his team the next year, as cornerback Charles Woodson has suggested.

The bad news for Callahan isn't that the Raiders are 2-6, but thanks to injuries the man he's asking to save his job is Rick Mirer. And if he fails, it's just-signed Rob Johnson.

That sound of Rolodex cards you hear flipping? It's Al Davis looking for Jim Plunkett's number.

Speaking of numbers, when Atlanta beat Dallas in the season opener, the Falcons presented coach Dan Reeves with career victory No. 199.

Eight weeks have passed and, like Linus sitting in the pumpkin patch awaiting the Great Pumpkin, Reeves is still checking the horizon for No. 200 to arrive.

At this point, he'd settle for No. 7 - star quarterback Michael Vick.

Reeves, who was run out of Denver when he couldn't get along with John Elway, apparently hasn't learned. He's sniped at Vick for taking so long to return from a broken leg suffered in an exhibition game.

The Falcons, with Vick, were a trendy Super Bowl pick. The Falcons without Vick?

Consider these two signs: Owner Arthur Blank takes out a full-page ad to apologize for his team's play and a week later Deion Sanders announces he wants to be the team's next coach.

Now consider this: Reeves is gone.

The outlook - the weather notwithstanding - isn't much brighter in San Diego, where Marty Schottenheimer has become so desperate he's turned to Doug Flutie to save his job.

Schottenheimer, it's always seemed, was the Chuck Knox of his generation. He believed in discipline, defense, running the football and his teams seemed to win everything but the big one.

Who knew it would go this far?

The way the Chargers have fallen apart - they've lost 11 of 12 games dating back to last season - is reminiscent of the Rams in the early '90s under Knox. After the '94 season, Knox was sent into retirement and the Rams left town. The Chargers and Schottenheimer might follow the same script soon.

If Spurrier, Callahan, Reeves and Schottenheimer are the only coaches fired at the end of the season, it hardly will be news. Last year, four coaches were axed and five the year before that. In 1999, six were canned and one resigned.

But the list could be longer this year.

Buffalo's Greg Williams and the Giants' Jim Fassel could be gone if they don't make the playoffs. St. Louis' Mike Martz and Miami's Dave Wannstedt might need to get to the Super Bowl to feel secure. Recent improvement has taken the heat off New Orleans' Jim Haslett and Chicago's Dick Jauron - for now.

Even Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher, the dinosaur, er, dean of NFL coaches, has Steelers fans grumbling with the team's 2-6 start. Whether he's back for a 13th season is, like the Steelers' running attack on fourth-and-inches, no longer a sure thing.

In fact, the only sure thing these days for NFL coaches is the old economic principle: the law of diminishing returns.

CAPTION(S):

photo, 2 boxes

Photo:

JAMES

Box:

(1) ON THE GRIDIRON

By Matthew Kredell

(2) CHICAGO AT DETROIT

- Compiled from Daily News wire services