CENTIGRADE TO TURN UP THE HEAT; Toffs can give Kids a Bashing.

Byline: DAVE NEVISON

WHENEVER they are interviewed all the big northern trainers name the Ayr Gold Cup as the race they want to win.

Winning this race is seen as a real pinnacle in a trainer's career and it is no surprise that is it now so massively oversubscribed that this year there is a full field Bronze Cup to go with today's Silver and Gold events.

One rule that seems pretty clear is that you cannot win this race with an out and out handicapper. The winner will be a Group horse who has been cunningly campaigned to disguise himself as a handicapper all season.

Although we may not have known it at the time Regal Parade who won at 22-1 last year has shown himself to be one of the top sprinters in Europe and is now a Group 1 winner.

I have approached this year's race on the basis that the winner is a group horse and just by scanning through the field I am pretty convinced that there are actually only four to choose from.

Knot in Wood won his Group race this year and almost brought his trainer Richard Fahey to tears. He has been a magnificent servant over the years but that success came on seriously soft ground which suited him more than his rivals and also the handicapper does him absolutely no favours these days. The ground though heavy at the start of the week is now likely to be on the quick side if anything.

Genki won the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood in the style of a horse that was jumping the grade from handicapper to Group horse, something that he has always promised to do and probably would have done already but for an injury blighted career. He will go well but he is drawn in the middle of the track and historically that has not been a good place.

Evens And Odds was a Group class two year old and is another who looks to be on his way back to that level. He has already won a heritage handicap for Dandy Nicholls and has got a plum draw in stall three which in my view should enable him to turn around Stewards' Cup form with Genki even though they meet on identical terms.

I took a chance earlier in the week and backed Redford thinking that he fits the bill completely being a Group class sprinter and one that had been laid out for this race. The gamble was on the draw and I worked on the basis that his odds would tumble if he got a very high number. He did just that and with punters' favourite Hayley Turner booked to ride I would not be at all surprised if he went off favourite this afternoon.

He has a fantastic cruising speed so he should be able to sit just off the pace and sit tight on the stand rail. This is a Group 3 horse for sure and I feel this is exactly the right race for him to demonstrate his class against a field of largely exposed if useful handicappers.

There are absolutely no excuses for me this week as the two horses I have wanted to bet have both been lucky with the draw and fortunately are drawn one on each side. One is for the toffs of the Highclere Throughbred Syndicates and the other trained by one of the Bash St Kids in Dandy Nicholls. I have a feeling this will be one for the toffs with REDFORD (3.10) but it will definitely be a big race for me as I will be having a win only bet on Redford and EVENS AND ODDS and hoping that class outs.

The Silver Cup is a little less straightforward in my view. If Sir Mark Prescott's runner Prescription had not been drawn nearer the middle then I think it could have gone off a very warm favourite indeed but stall seventeen means that punters needto have more of a guess as to how far superior she is.

There is no doubt she has more upside potential than all of her rivals and despite showing some of her improvement on the polytrack this year has shown herself perfectly capable of winning a good race on turf. Prescott will no doubt have worked out to the pound the weight he wanted her to run off and would not have been the slightest bit perturbed that she was trapped all the way around the outside of her rivals last time out at Wolverhampton running exceptionally well from such an inconvenient draw.

Stall 17 historically is not good however so it makes it difficult. I am going to give another chance to JOHANNES (2.05) who found himself going too fast in the Portland last weekend when carrying our money. He turned out to be drawn badly on that occasion as well but previous to that all the positives that I put out for this much improved sprinter last week still apply to this weekend's race. If we throw in the added plus that he is drawn perfectly in stall 26 and that the race is over an extra half furlong then it makes him even more appealing especially as he will be at longer odds. I will be backing Johannes and hoping that Prescription is not quite as good as I think she may be.

The opening event is a tough nursery but the interesting one for me is undoubtedly theWilliam Haggas trained CENTIGRADE (1.35). First up the trainer loves to win at this meeting so the fact that he sends one up at all is seriously significant.

He improved from his first run to win a decent Warwick maiden in tenacious style. The third has since gone on to run really well in a hot nursery at Doncaster and this looks good form for a nursery. Centigrade is the nap to get us off to a good start to the day.

On an absolutely terrific card it will be great if Scotland can have a winner and the one that most of us wil be cheering on is NANTON (4.25) who proved his run in the Ebor to be absolutely no fluke last week at Doncaster.

He is down in trip this time but he seems to be such an improved performer that it may well not stop him.

CAPTION(S):

WILLIAM HAGGAS: Fond of an Ayr tilt