CENSUS DATA COULD PROVE TO BE COSTLY SHORT COUNT MAY CUT FUNDING.

Byline: Charles F. Bostwick and Cecilia Chan Staff Writers

The 2000 Census could cost local cities a lot of money - some more than $1 million - as state and federal governments adjust allocations based on 2000 Census information.

The reason is that several state and federal tax allocations - vehicle license fees and community development block grants, for instance - are based on population, and the new census figured many cities' populations at thousands less than the most recent state estimates on which this year's tax revenues were based.

``It's big money,'' said Bill Ramsey, the finance director in Palmdale, which stands to lose $700,000 in federal and state funding. ``We need the money. We've always got a project we can do.''

The 2000 Census figures, released last Thursday, set Palmdale's population at 116,670 and Lancaster's at 118,718. But last May, the state estimated Palmdale's population at 122,392 and Lancaster at 128,214, plus an additional 4,188 inmates in its state prison.

That difference could cost Lancaster as much as $1.2 million, officials say.

The ultimate impact on local cities in California hasn't been determined. State officials have not yet decided whether they will simply adopt the census counts released last week, or use them as the basis for some other estimate.

``We're not sure what kind of role those numbers will figure into,'' said Mary Heim, a demographer in the state Department of Finance, which provides yearly population estimates for California's cities and counties. ``We're exploring some options.''

In addition, the state's 2001 population estimate - due out May 1 - will add an extra year of population growth on top of the 2000 Census count. The refigured population numbers will take effect with fiscal 2001, which starts July 1.

The Lancaster and Palmdale populations weren't the only ones overestimated by the state. The state estimated the number of Californians at more than 34.3 million. The Census counted 33.9 million.

State figures put the population of Camarillo at 63,300, while the Census came back with 57,077 - a difference of 6,223 people.

``We have a general fund that runs $12 million a year,'' Camarillo Assistant City Manager Larry Davis said. ``It would hamper our operations.''

Neighboring Ventura County cities with beefier budgets don't expect a such a hard financial hit.

``Most of our revenue comes from areas not impacted by census numbers, like sales and property taxes,'' said Ken Schechter, Simi Valley budget officer. ``With a $40 million budget it's not going to be that significant.''

The city saw its population figure drop to 111,351 from the state's estimate of 113,000, a difference of 1,649 people at a potential loss of $82 a person to the city's coffers.

``This is very preliminary,'' Schechter said. ``I don't think it's that significant but we will certainly analyze and look at it carefully.''

Cities like Fillmore and Moorpark benefited from the census count with gains in their populations.

Fillmore saw an increase of 393 people from a state estimate of 13,250, and Moorpark marked a population increase from 29,750 to 31,415 under the census.

``This obviously would give us additional funding for various programs both recreational, staff and public safety,'' said Wayne Loftus, Moorpark's director of community development. ``It would help us balance the budget.''

In Burbank, City Manager Robert ``Bud'' Ovrom said an anticipated shortfall of $818,250 would not have a major impact on the city's budget because officials had suspected that the state's population numbers were inflated.

The Finance Department has a history of overestimating the number of residents in local cities, Ovrom said, and did so in the decade prior to the 1990 Census.

``We were expecting the census would cause our population numbers to change,'' Ovrom said.

The state had projected Burbank's population at 106,500, but the Census counted 100,316 - 6,184 less.

Robert Franz, Glendale's finance director, said he has not yet done an analysis and could not say how much less the city will get, but he is surprised by the size of the discrepancy. The state estimated Glendale's population at 203,700, while the census found it to be 194,973 - 8,727 less.

Jim Glaser, assistant director of planning for Glendale, said if other cities are also in the same situation as Glendale, the numbers might even out.

``Whatever the number might be, if everyone's funding reduces in the same manner, the error rate is the same. There may be no financial implications,'' he said.

Staff Writers Katie Cooper and Helen Gao contributed to this story.