CCID Consulting Releases Index on ICT.

BEIJING -- CCID Consulting, China's leading research, consulting and IT outsourcing service provider, and the first Chinese consulting firm listed in Hong Kong (Hong Kong Stock Exchange: HK08235), recently released CCID Consulting index.

"Computer Subsidy" Will Stimulate the Rapid Growth of Rural PC Market

Tendency Probability: 90%

Influence Degree: ****

On Mar. 5, the computer bid result of Ministry of Commerce's and Ministry of Finance's "home appliances subsidy" official announced, 14 vendors such as Lenovo, Founder, Tongfang, HP, Dell and Haier win the bid in 21 tender vendors. Bid result's announcement marks "computer subsidy" official start-up, which also means the official start-up of PC vendors' battle for rural market. Lenovo, Founder, Haier and Tongfang have improved their products, sales network's coverage, logistics distribution capability and service network.

Tier1-3 PC markets tend to be saturated, tier4-6 cities, villages and town markets will play important role. In 2009, desktop PC's prospect is not optimistic. It is forecasted that the unfavorable impact brought by financial crisis on desktop PC will be more obvious. "Computer subsidy" policies' implementation becomes the impetus of desktop PC market. CCID Consulting forecasts that CAGR of China's tier4 and below markets during 2009-2011 will reach 12.3%. Deeply digging rural markets may become desktop PC vendors' good plan of getting rid of dilemma. CCID Consulting forecasts that the competition in rural market will heat up in 2009.

SSD - Tomorrow Star in Storage Market

Tendency Probability: 80%

Influence Degree: ***

Solid State Disk or Solid State Drive is the hard disk, which is composed by control unit and solid-state memory cell (DRAM or FLASH chip). Currently, it is widely applied in military, on-board, industry control, video surveillance, network monitoring, network terminal, electric power, medical treatment, aviation and navigation equipment. Currently, because of high cost, it gradually spreads to DIY market.

Besides notebook industry pays more attention to solid state disk, storage market's demands for high performance disk storage increase steadily. SSD's breakthroughs in technology and cost drop ignite the passion to SSD market; storage market has shown increasing interest in solid state technology. In the past year, EMC provides solid state disk for Symmetrix, CLARiiON and Celerra disk array, which has good performance and announces its SSD to enter into the second phase. Besides, HP and Pillar have also inroduced SSD array, vendors set foot in SSD field. CCID Consulting considers that unified industry standards should be set down so as to protect users' investments and guarantee vendors' long-term benefits.

PLM Software Products' Scope Expands, Which Covers the Whole Lifecycle

Tendency Probability: 85%

Influence Degree: ***

At present stage, as enterprise design's informatization platform, PLM software could provide products' business data and BPO in lifecycle; because the system is in the upper of management, it could provide manufacturing's plan data, it couldn't provide direct and detailed support to workshop's implementation, process management and manufacturing's data, so it fails to form products' lifecycle management's closed-loop data, which results in the disconnection between PLM data and workshop management data. Therefore, PLM software needs to expand coverage, covering from products' design-end to workshop production, which drives the whole product lifecycle to form a close-loop.

PLM software will extend management scope to NC workshop. It not only integrates CAM software and stimulation and verification software, but also takes the upstream design, technology and production; what's more important is integrating NC lathe and NC instrument, and finally forms NC workshop management solutions with software, hardware and management. It could realize the synchronization of production plan alteration and manufacturing execution; according to the monitoring on production data, it feeds back the monitoring result or alternate process.

Virtualization, SOA and High Performance Computing Will Become the Highlights of Open Source Technology

Tendency Probability: 75%

Influence Degree: ***

With many years' concept promotion, virtualization will present with more real visage. In order to improve server's use influence, save users' energy, space and management cost, and build green IT, Novell, Redhat and Xen launch their own virtualization solutions. Meanwhile, with the promotions of Microsoft and Vmware, desktop virtualization technology will become another focus of open source vendors.

SOA's characteristics will help solve the inconsistent with heterogeneous systems' communications protocol, the data exchange and mutual communications difficulty brought by non-uniform interface standards so as to provide a practical way to the integrated applications of open source software and private software. This technology will be accepted by more and more users, it will have more applications in 2009.

Red Flag cooperates with H3C, Powerleader, CSIP, Intel, Institute of Computing Technology and ZTE to jointly establish China's High-Performance Computer Industry Alliance; Redhat launches HPC version, which integrates a large number of intensive computing tools and cluster tools; Novell, Microsoft and Dawning promote high performance computing; this series of cooperation and new products' launch shows that high performance computing will become open-source vendors' next focus.

Telecom Reorganization and 3G Investment's Enlargement Stimulate New Demands for Communication Power Supply

Tendency Probability: 90%

Influence Degree: ***

The reorganization of China's telecom industry and 3G investment's enlargement bring new opportunities to communications power supply market. Telecom industrial reorganization will bring new round of investment in 2009; network capacity expansion and 3G commercial use's implementation will produce a great number of demands for communications power supply. In Jan. 2009, with 3G licences' successful issue, communications industry chain has emerged, which includes 3G network construction, terminal equipment manufacturing, operation services and information services. In next three years, the industry chain will effectively promote 2 trillion investments, which has important meaning to expand domestic demands and stimulate economic significance; besides, the issue of China's Stimulus Plan for the IT & Electronics Industry brings good news. With regard to 3G, next generation Internet and DTV network's construction, 600 billion Yuan will be applied in these fields. As the key infrastructure of the whole communications network, in new round of 3G investment, the demands for communications power supply will be inspired.

With network capacity expansion, 3G substantive implementation and energy-saving emission reduction's more social concern, telecom equipment puts forward high requirements for power supply performance. With the demands upgrade brought by telecom reorganization and 3G investments' enlargement, China's communications power supply market will greet new development opportunities.

LED Light Source Has Bright Future in Projector Field

Tendency Probability: 85%

Influence Degree: ****

In 2008, Delta developed the first LED light source 1080P home projector, 600 limen's brightness is suitable for home use. LED light source in the home use projector LED breaks through the situation that LED light source could only be applied in small pocket projects.

LED light source projector has the following advantages: firstly, it has long service life, which saves the trouble of frequent replacement of light bulbs so as to reduce cost; secondly, it could save energy and has small noise, which is benefit to create green and environment-protection's environment. However, small LED light source per unit area and low unit power results in low projector brightness, which is not suitable for mainstream business and education projector applications. In recent years, with LED chip manufacturing technical progress, LED luminous efficiency has continuous improvement, and LED light source has rapid improvement; compared with the light bulb, LED light source has obvious advantage, more upstream and downstream manufacturers support LED light source development. Judging from long-term, LED light source has bright future in projector field.

Technology Convergence Promotes New Round Growth of GPS Chip Market

Tendency Probability: 85%

Influence Degree: ***

When the GPS technology has developed to a certain extent, GPS application market will become broader. GPS products application market could use pyramid to describe, the top part belongs to vehicle navigation systems, the middle part is PND and consumer electronic market; besides the application with mobile communications technology in mobile phone, the combinations with DC and notebook computer have great potential. Currently, Sony's DC lauches GPS receiver accessory, Canon and Nikon embed GPS chipset in their high-end DCs. This embedded GPS chip market begins to sprout. Low-end part is localizer and data recorder and other small market, GPS localizer is a very attractive product, which has considerable impact on consumers and business market's applications, such as child localizers, senior monitoring, pet monitoring, mobility staff management, individual worker's safety and property management. These products' demands for GPS chips are relative low-end, product prices are cheap; because of the cheap price, the shipment in the market will grow rapidly if its application market has been development. With the quantity support, it will become the key GPS chip market.

3G Development Drives New Demands of Mobile Phone Chip Market

Tendency Probability: 90%

Influence Degree: ****

In Jan. 2009, with China's 3G mobile communications licenses' official issue, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom respectively acquire TD-SCDMA, CDMA2000 and WCDMA licenses, which marks 3G services' official use in China. 3G application and popularition not only drive the growth of communications equipment investment, but also becomes the impetus of mobile phone chip market's growth. Compared with 2G mobile phone, 3G's advantage lies in its descent velocity has improved to 384kbps from 128kbps, multimedia is 3G's best application, therefore, 3G's realization drives multimedia chip market growth. Besides, 3G applications will drive mobile phone chip's upgrade, such as power management and storage. Because 3G users spend long time to use mobile phone to acquire network services, chip vendors adopt more advanced power management to satisfy higher power consumption demands; meanwhile, it requires baseband and RF chips' lower power consumption. With regard to storage, information amount's increase and more complicated OS drive the growth of storage space demands. Whether it is ROM or RAM, built-in or external memory card will realize capacity upgrade, when 3G application realizes popularity. Besides, 3G standards' diversified, and the co-existing of 3G and 2G will provide certain market space of mobile phone chips, which support multi-networks' applications.

China's Wireless City Construction Team Is Increasingly Larger

Tendency Probability: 90%

Influence Degree: ****

China's national policies' support to wireless city construction, and great potential profit of China's wireless city construction and operation not only stimulate the enthusiasm of China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, H3C and Azalea, but also attracts private enterprises' attentions.

In recent two years, private equipment manufacturers, such as China Communication, and private operators, such as Shenzhen Yu-Kun Communication Technology actively take part in wireless cities' construction; besides, famous vendors in Internet field - Baidu also takes part in wireless city construction. In Changde wireless network construction, the in-depth cooperation between Baidu and Shenzhen Yu-Kun Communication is the true reflection of private enterprises actively promoting wireless city construction, and the signal of wireless city construction's growing team. With China's wireless city construction's continuous promotion, more private vendors in more fields will take part in wireless city construction with more modes so as to promote wireless network's commerce use process.

WiMAX Vendors Look Forward to China's Domestic Market with Eager Expectancy

Tendency Probability: 80%

Influence Degree: ***

In 2008, affected by China's 3G licenses' issue and financial crisis's impact in 2008H2, WiMAX has slow development in China.

WiMAX's development in China faces serious challenges, the reorganization of the telecommunications industry has just concluded, TD's full deployment has almost formed, another 3G standards -- WCDMA and CDMA 2000 will land in China. After telecom reorganization, operators intensify 3G network's construction, but WiMAX couldn't finish its construction in short-term. WiMAX sees a glimmer of hope in China's wireless city, but Wi-Fi can only solve the indoor coverage, fixed WiMAX (802.16d) couldn't realize mobile high speed Internet access, which restricts wireless cities' high-speed Internet access. WiMAX also faces CDMA and Wi-Fi standards' challenges.

Policy barrier is the major bottleneck, which restrict WiMAX couldn't have large scale network building. In "3G in China, Global Summit 2008", deputy director Xie Fei of Bureau of Radio of MIIT announces that mobile WiMAX (802.16e) hasn't passed the validation of China Communications Standards Association, it couldn't be China's national standards, which couldn't be used in China. Because Chinese government hasn't released mobile WiMAX frequency band; therefore, WiMAX couldn't has large scale commerce use in China. If band limitation problem couldn't be solved, WiMAX in China is an armchair strategist.

CCID Consulting's statistics shows that the growth of China's WiMAX equipment market in 2008 slows down, the size of the market reaches 1.23 billion Yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, the major growth point is wireless city constructions' requirements and public places' wireless communications systems' improvements in some cities. This development trend will continue in 2009, major WiMAX vendors look forward to China's market with eager expectance.

Listing and Financing Will Become Many Small Home Appliance Enterprises' First Choice

Tendency Probability: 80%

Influence Degree: ***

With regard to market environment, in the context of export pressure's enlargement and domestic sale facing the converging attacks of large home appliances enterprises and foreign vendors' entering small home market, in order to further strengthen their competitiveness in overseas market, small home appliance vendors need more capital so as to strengthen the ability against the risks in export market; with regard to products' lifecycle theory, small home appliance is in the fast growing period, the product characteristics in this period is more consumers accept the products and use the products, enterprises' sales revenue has rapid increase and the profit increases. More competitors will take part in this market; therefore, enterprises should enlarge production line, improve production capacity, listing and financing will become many small home appliance enterprises' preferred strategy and strategic objective.

In May 2008, Joyoung is issued at a price of 22.54 Yuan in Small and Medium Enterprise Board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange; Elecpro's listed sets off small home appliance enterprises' listed wave. Joyoung's successful listed stimulates other small household enterprises' listed desires. Currently, Guangdong small home appliance Galanz, Fusibo, and Vanward and Beijing YADU also prepare to get listed. For the past many years, the favorable performances of listed companies in small household field attract investors. But most of small home appliance enterprises are private enterprises, their listed road is not smooth, which exists insufficient institutional innovation, a few self-owned brands and difficult ownership dilution.

Mobile HD Has New Round Price Drop, Solid Mobile State Disk Emerges

Tendency Probability: 80

Influence Degree: ***

In mobile HD field, DIY mobile HD and original brand's mobile HD are contrary. Although it doesn't have original brand mobile HD's quality assurance and excellent services, based on cheap price, DIY mobile HD assembly dominates the majority of market share in mobile HD market. Therefore, in the present complex economic environment, in order to defend their brand and market share, orginal brand mobile HD is about to set off a new round of price drop, which will attract consumers' attentions.

However, besides price drop, traditional mechanical mobile HD faces performance improvement's puzzle. With people pay more attention to energy, zoology and economic issues, SSD technology is been re-mentioned. Because SSD doesn't adopt FLASH strage medium, it doesn't have mechanical structure, so it doesn't have data search time, delay time and tracking time, which breaks through traditional mobile HD's mechanical properties' limitation on data read, write speed and performance improvement. However, SSD's high price couldn't shake the traditional mechanical HD's hegemony in short-term. But with SSD technical gradual improvement, it will replace traditional mechanical HD, which will become the main force of mobile HD market.

About CCID Consulting

CCID Consulting Co., Ltd. (hereinafter known as CCID Consulting), the first Chinese consulting firm listed in the Growth Enterprise Market of the Stock Exchange (GEM) of Hong Kong (stock code: 8235.HK), is directly affiliated with China Center for Information Industry Development (hereinafter known as CCID Group). Headquartered in Beijing, CCID Consulting has so far set up branch offices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Chengdu, with over 300 professional consultants after many years of development. The company's business scope has covered over 200 large and medium-sized cities in China.

Based on major areas of competitiveness: industrial resources, information technology and data channels, CCID Consulting provides customers with public policy establishment, industry competitiveness upgrading, development strategy and planning, marketing strategy and research, HR management, IT programming and management. CCID Consulting's customers range from industrial users in electronics, telecommunications, energy, finance, automobile, to government departments at all levels and diversified industrial parks. CCID Consulting commits itself to becoming the No. 1 advisor for enterprise management, the No. 1 consultancy for government decisions and the No. 1 brand for informatization consulting.