CB consumption to reach 7.8 mmt in 2001.

World carbon black consumption is forecast to increase 3% per year to 7.8 million metric tons in the year 2001, tracking gains in rubber demand over the same period. Use as a reinforcement in vulcanized rubber goods will account for 94% of total demand, including 68% for tires, a new study from The Freedonia Group says. However, special blacks will offer the market's most rapid gains due to increasing use in plastics, printing inks and paints. While special blacks are a relatively minor segment as measured in tonnage, they command considerably higher per-kilogram values than commodity furnace blacks, and thus will continue to be the focus of research and development activity, the report adds.

Asia/Pacific will post the strongest gains, due mainly to the ongoing development of China's tire industry. However, increases will be below prior projections due to the financial crisis that swept the Pacific Rim in late 1997. North America's market will continue to expand, even given its strong 1996 base, while Western Europe and Japan, both recovering from weak showings in the first half of the 1990s, will see modest gains. Latin America offers solid opportunities, particularly in Brazil, while in Eastern Europe, strongest prospects lie with the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.

Tire markets for carbon black are forecast to grow 3% per year to 5.3 mint in the year 2001, benefiting from rising tire production levels as well as the continuing popularity of performance tires, particularly in developed regions. Carbon black used in non-tire rubber products will increase 3% per year to two million metric tons in the year 2001, with demand remaining linked mainly to industrial rubber products such as hoses, belts and mechanical goods.

Plastics and printing inks will continue to dominate demand for special blacks. accounting for nearly 75% in the year 2001. In developed regions, paints and coatings are also a major use, but the lack of large paint and coating markets in many developing countries mitigates the importance of this end use on a world level, Freedonia states.

SPI releases more accurate PU figures

The Polyurethane Division of The Society of the Plastics Industry. (SPI) has released results of a follow-up analysis of its 1996 and 1994, United States market surveys conducted to strengthen the accuracy of its market comparisons in its biennial end use market survey on the polyurethane industry in the U.S. and Canada.

"Because market information from the Polyurethane Foam Association (PEA) was not available in the original 1994 study, the 1996 market data comparison issued last July was incorrect and misleading," according to Michael J. McGovern of Arco, chairman of the Alliance for Flexible Polyurethane Foam (AFPF).

McGovern says the new 1994 market estimates reflect a more "accurate snapshot" of the flexible polyurethane foam markets, since the survey now includes more participation from PFA members than originally surveyed.

In comparing the revised 1994 data to SPI's 1996 market study, the total polyurethane market rose by 8% in 1996 to 4.6 billion pounds from 4.3 billion pounds in 1994. McGovern said the data comparison shows that the transportation and furniture markets increased five and one percent, respectively: bedding increased three percent; and packaging increased eight percent. In comparing the original 1994 data to 1996 data, he said the 1996 SPI study erroneously showed that the transportation market increased 14%: furniture and bedding decreased 1.7 and 16%, respectively; and packaging increased 12%.

The revised 1994 estimates are: transportation - 921 million lbs.; carpet cushion - 529 million lbs.; furniture - 490 million lbs.; bedding - 175 million lbs.: packaging - 202 million lbs.; and textile and fibers - 152 million lbs.

Fran Lichtenberg, executive director of SPI's Polyurethane Division, says, "Me polyurethane industry continues to be very healthy as we enter the second quarter of 1998."

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

World carbon black demand

                      (Thousand metric tons)
                                                         % annual
                                                          growth
Item                             1987    1996    2001     01/96

World carbon black consumption   6,710   6,710   7,800     3.1
North America                    1,795   1,795   2,015     2.3
Western Europe                   1,197   1,197   1,305     1.7
China                              725     725     900     4.4
Japan                              809     809     890     1.9
Other Asia/Pacific               1,187   1,187   1,520     5.1
Other regions                      997     997   1,170     3.3