CARDINAL 'CATS WILL LEAD PAC.

Byline: JON WILNER College Basketball 

Long gone from the NCAA Tournament - but alive and well in the NIT - the Pacific-10 looks to next season. For the first time in several years, there won't be an odds-on favorite.

Here's one scenario, from bottom to top:

10. Washington State. The Cougars will have a new coach, but the same frustrating results: They're not good enough to beat the elite teams at home, and they can't beat anyone on the road.

Kab Kazadi and Kojo Mensah-Bonsu do not return, a relief to public-address announcers everywhere, but Reseda's Eddie Miller and sharpshooter Jan-Michael Thomas are back. Combined with several decent recruits, they will help Wazu to respectability. Projected Pac-10 record: 5-13.

9. Washington. After coach Bob Bender bolts for Vanderbilt, the Huskies will hire Colorado State's rising star, Ritchie McKay. He doesn't have much to work with - Donald Watts and Todd MacCulloch are gone - as Washington returns to the second-division status it held for much of the decade.

Point guard Senque Carey and shooter Deon Luton form a solid backcourt, but the frontcourt players (Chris Walcott, Greg Clark, Marlon Shelton and Thalo Green) are unproven. Pac-10 record: 6-12.

8. Arizona State. Coach Rob Evans enters the second phase of his rebuilding job: Having lost all-conference players Bobby Lazor and Mike Batiste, he must survive until his recruits mature.

Point guard Alton Mason and shooter Eddie House are the top returnees. Illinois transfer Awvee Storey and incoming freshman Donnell Knight will start. There's no proven center. Pac-10 record: 7-11.

7. California. The good news for coach Ben Braun is underachieving gunners Thomas Kilgore and Geno Carlisle are gone. They will leave a less talented - but more cohesive - group. Watch for forward Sean Lampley to emerge as one of the league's best. He'll be the first option, with recruit Donte Smith and small forward Carl Boyd in support. Pac-10 record: 7-11.

6. Oregon State. Beware the Beavs. They're ready to dominate at home and perhaps win a road game or two. Coach Eddie Payne has his core intact: guards Dino Tanner and Josh Steinthal, forwards Clifton Jones and Ramunas Petraitis, plus center Jason Heide and 6-9 recruit Brian Jackson, the best big man Payne has ever signed.

Success may be their biggest problem: No one will take them for granted. Pac-10 record: 8-10.

5. USC. The Trojans showed glimpses of potential this season against UCLA and Stanford. Inexperience was a problem, but that shouldn't be true next season.

Coach Henry Bibby has the players to challenge for an NCAA bid: Brandon Granville at point, Jeff Trepagnier on the wing, Sam Clancy, Jarvis Turner, Greg Lakey and Brian Scalabrine up front. Pac-10 record: 10-8.

4. Oregon. Consider Oregon's charge through the NIT as the beginning of its 1999-2000 season. With most of their top players returning, the Ducks will be one of the Pac-10's best and a solid NCAA Tournament team. Point guard Darius Wright returns, as do gifted wing players Alex Scales and Freddie Jones.

A.D. Smith is a solid power forward, but as usual, there's no proven center. Ernie Kent's motion offense can score against anyone, but to consistently beat the elite he'll need a junior college big man. Pac-10 record: 11-7.

3. UCLA. Bruins coach Steve Lavin won't have inexperience to blame if UCLA struggles in conference play. Everyone of consequence returns but All-American Baron Davis, who's expected to bolt for the NBA. While he'll be a major loss, the Bruins should have enough size, depth and talent to maintain their upper-division status.

The Bruins must shift their emphasis to a half-court attack for two reasons: Point guard Earl Watson is not a dependable ball handler in transition, and that style would make better use of the big men, Jerome Moiso and Dan Gadzuric. Now the question becomes: Can the coaching staff teach a consistent, effective halfcourt system? Pac-10 record: 13-5.

1. Arizona (tie). The Wildcats lose guard Jason Terry and center A.J. Bramlett, but everyone else returns, including Loren Woods, a 7-foot transfer from Wake Forest. Arizona also welcomes recruit Jason Gardner, one of the nation's top point guard recruits, to replace Terry.

The wing and forward positions are excellent, with sophomores Ruben Douglas, Richard Jefferson, Rick Anderson and Michael Wright. But like UCLA this season, the Wildcats won't have many juniors and seniors in the rotation. Pac-10 record: 14-4.

1. Stanford (tie). Yes, the Cardinal loses four starters, but it has enough incoming talent to avoid a rebuilding season. Mark Madsen returns at power forward and should be the best big man in the league. He's joined by Jarron and (if healthy) Jason Collins, plus Mike McDonald, Ryan Mendez and Davis Moseley.

The recruiting class is the nation's best, led by Glendora shooting guard Casey Jacobsen, Alameda power forward Justin Davis, and Redmond (Wash.) center Curtis Borchardt, the best incoming big man in the league.

After an injured-filled season, coach Mike Montgomery will have all the depth he needs next year. Pac-10 record: 14-4.