CAN HAHN PULL IT OFF? DEBATE CAN MAKE OR BREAK MAYOR.

Byline: Rick Orlov Staff Writer

For Mayor James Hahn, tonight's scheduled debate could be both his last chance to talk to a citywide audience to preserve his political career and the kickoff to the final leg of a campaign that finds him grasping for support.

For Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, the question he faces is whether he can close the deal with voters and hold on to what appears to be a huge lead with a month to go before the May 17 election.

The debate, sponsored by KABC-TV (Channel 7) and the League of Women Voters, is scheduled to be televised live from the Simon Wiesenthal Center. The two also have agreed to an April 23 debate sponsored by Univision for Spanish-language television.

Both men are in a familiar position.

Four years ago, Villaraigosa came out of the primary election as the choice of voters, only to lose to Hahn in the runoff.

Villaraigosa won this year's primary election by an even larger margin, while Hahn barely scraped past former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg to get into the runoff.

The difference this year has been that Villaraigosa has been able to attack Hahn's record - and the criminal investigations swirling around the mayor's administration - as well as those upset with Hahn's performance over the past four years.

By all accounts, Villaraigosa had one of the best weeks of the campaign in this past week.

Two independent polls put him far ahead of Hahn. He had a highly successful fundraising trip back east and he picked up endorsements from Magic Johnson and Hertzberg.

``It was a good week, but we are running as if we are still three points behind,'' said Villaraigosa campaign manager Parke Skelton. ``There is still a lot of election left and a lot of things can happen in four weeks.''

No one writes off the potential of Hahn to come back - as he did four years ago in winning his sixth straight citywide election.

On Monday, Hahn will give his annual State of the City address and, later in the week, release his budget for the coming year, with an expected emphasis on finding the money to hire new police officers and improve city services.

Hahn campaign consultant Kam Kuwata notes that Villaraigosa outspent the mayor four years ago - as is expected in this election as well - and also had more endorsements than Hahn.

``Voters have this habit of deciding for themselves,'' Kuwata said. ``Endorsements only do so much.''

While Hahn is in a stronger position with organized labor this time, he's got trouble in other constituencies that helped him win last time. Many black voters still are upset with him over how he handled replacing Bernard Parks as police chief and many San Fernando Valley voters are upset with how he ran the campaign against secession.

``I think, in South Los Angeles, he still has a chance,'' said Democratic consultant Fred MacFarlane, who has been working with the African-American Voter Registration, Education and Participation Project to increase voter turnout.

``I think what the mayor needs to do is concentrate on what he has done for the city. Crime is down. You have a whole series of neighborhood councils. The 911 system is better than before and the 311 system is in place. Those are things he needs to remind voters of what he's done.''

Parks - who has endorsed Villaraigosa - carried South Los Angeles and a poll done for Assemblyman Mark Ridley-Thomas and the voter project shows black voters are evenly divided between Hahn and Villaraigosa, with 20 percent undecided.

In the Valley, there has been no separate polling done.

Both candidates have tried to make inroads with key Valley groups. Hahn has won support among some traditional Valley leaders such as Bert Boeckmann, retired Rep. Bobbi Fiedler, former Assemblywoman Paula Boland and several homeowners groups.

Villaraigosa has countered with his own homeowner support and, more importantly, with the Hertzberg endorsement. Hertzberg was the front-runner in the Valley in the primary election.

Kuwata indicated the mayor plans to stress - in the debate and in the coming weeks - the issue of crime and public safety, and how the hiring of Police Chief Bill Bratton and other steps resulted in a dramatic reduction in crime citywide.

Hahn began it last week with a variety of events pointing out the differences between himself and Villaraigosa.

``It was Jim Hahn, when he was city attorney, who first proposed gang injunctions and it was the ACLU and Antonio Villaraigosa who fought it,'' Kuwata said. ``Now, the mayor has proposed what is a controversial plan to have a citywide gang injunction and we don't know where Councilman Villaraigosa stands on the issue.''

Villaraigosa has said he wants to study the impact of such a proposal and whether it would be constitutional and practical.

But political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe said she expects Hahn to launch a negative campaign against Villaraigosa - beginning with the debate.

``The mayor has to put Villaraigosa in a position so he is completely off balance,'' Jeffe said. ``The only way to do that is to go negative, but that has dangers for the mayor as well and it could turn voters against him.

``For Villaraigosa, what he has to do is not get sidetracked and remain focused on where he is.''

John Shallman, who managed Hertzberg's campaign and nearly pulled off an upset of Hahn, cautions that the 30 days remaining are a lifetime in politics.

``I've seen bigger leads disappear in shorter amounts of time,'' Shallman said. ``Just look at Howard Dean in last year's presidential race. Having all the momentum doesn't mean anything if it doesn't peak at the right time.

``Politics is like a basketball game. Everyone has their hot streaks. The question is, what is the score at the end of the game.''

Shallman said there also is a difference in a race for a chief executive's job where people end up looking more favorably at an incumbent.

``People get a little more cautious and more reluctant to make a change unless a compelling case can be made. The mayor has to show he has provided the basic services and it is up to the Villaraigosa campaign to show they can do better with the basic quality-of-life issues.''

Rick Orlov, [phone]

rick.orlov(at)dailynews.com

DEBATE ON TV

Tonight's debate will air at 6 p.m. on KABC (Channel 7).