Bush Holds a Five-Point Lead in 'GW-Battleground 2004 Poll'; War in Iraq and Terrorism Remain Defining Issues.

WASHINGTON -- The George Washington University Battleground 2004 Tracking Poll continues to show President George W. Bush with a slight lead on Sen. John Kerry in the race for the presidency. The aided presidential ballot stands at 50% for Bush and 45% for Kerry.

This survey finds fully 87% of likely voters have made a "definite" choice for president. President Bush continues to enjoy a slight advantage with these highly intense supporters - 46% of likely voters are definitely voting for Bush and 42% of likely voters are definitely voting for Kerry.

"With an engaged and polarized electorate, provisional balloting, electronic voting machines, and high stakes, this presidential election promises all the high drama of a real horse race," said Christopher Arterton, dean of GW's Graduate School of Political Management. "This GW-Battleground 2004 Poll documents the issues, images, attitudes, and strategies that are driving this election. The analysis by Goeas and Lake provides insight into calling a winner prior to election day."

On voter views about the presidential candidates, 55% of likely voters have a favorable view of President Bush and 43% have an unfavorable view of him. Regarding Sen. Kerry, 52% of likely voters have a favorable view and 46% of likely voters have an unfavorable view.

On the handling of key issues, voters believe that Bush would do a better job safe-guarding America from a terrorist threat (56%-36%) and dealing with Iraq (55%-39%). Voters believe Kerry would do better at keeping America prosperous (47%-45%) and creating jobs (51%-40%).

On personal qualities, voters believe that Bush better represents the qualities of a strong leader (55%-39%) and shares your values (51%-43%).

"While the race remains close, trends throughout the last seven weeks have been fairly consistent, and there continues to be reason for the President's optimism about his reelection chances," said Ed Goeas, Republican pollster.

Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster, said "The current poll does not take into consideration the unsurpassed ground operation of the Democrats, which could have the race go either way. Watch also for the base to consolidate for the Democrats which makes this an even race."

The top concerns of voters continue to be the war in Iraq/terrorism (37%) and the economy/health care (28%). Voters continue to be concerned about the direction of the country - 52% say the country is on the wrong track and 41% say the country is headed in the right direction.

The generic Congressional ballot has moved to a tie (44%-44%).

This bipartisan GW-Battleground 2004 Poll surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Oct. 25-28, 2004, and yields a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

This nationally recognized series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry, in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle. The George Washington University is the sponsor of the GW-Battleground Poll, a highly regarded, bi-partisan election survey conducted by top polling firms Lake Snell Perry and Associates and The Tarrance Group. GW's role in the poll is guided by the University's Graduate School of Political Management. The University also was recently recognized as the "Hottest School for Political Junkies" in the 2005 Kaplan/Newsweek How to Get Into College guide for the second time in three years.

Celinda Lake, Ed Goeas and Christopher Arterton are available for comment. For Lake, please contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Snell Perry and Associates, [phone]. For Goeas, please contact Brian Nienaber at the Tarrance Group, [phone]. For Arterton, please contact Tracy Schario at The George Washington University, [phone]. This data also is available via the Internet at www.tarrance.com, www.lspa.com or www.gwnewscenter.org.

For more news about GW, visit the GW News Center at www.gwnewscenter.org.