Bush Comments.

President Bush on July 31 said increasing stability in Iraq would probably allow the withdrawal of more US forces there, giving the clearest indication yet that he intended to begin reducing the number of American troops before leaving office in January 2009. In an unusual early morning statement outside the Oval Office, he praised the growing capability of Iraq's government and security forces and said terrorists were on the brink of defeat. He said the US was "also making progress" in negotiations on a long-term accord with the government to set the terms for the presence of American troops in Iraq.

Bush made no mention of a final agreement, despite some indications that Iraq and the US were close to a deal. His remarks appeared intended to highlight the success of his 2007 decision to deploy a "surge" of 30,000 troops, which has been credited with helping contain spiralling ethnic and sectarian violence. He noted that violence was at the lowest level since the spring of 2004, and that levels had stabilised over the past three months, even as the last of those additional forces left Iraq.

There are now about 140,000 US troops in Iraq, as many as there were two years ago, when the conflict peaked - but Bush said the turn-around would allow "further reductions in our combat forces, as conditions permit". He highlighted his decision, announced in April, to reduce tours in Iraq to 12 months, from 15 months, for units now heading to Iraq. The increase to 15 months had strained forces and was widely unpopular in the military, especially the army.

Bush said: "We owe our thanks to all those who wear the uniform and their families who support them in their vital work. And the best way to honour them is to support their mission, and bring them home with victory". (The issue of US forces has been contentious in American politics, and the reductions Bush foreshadowed could be announced in the thick of the presidential campaign. Sen Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, has called for a withdrawal of all combat forces within 16 months, a position Republican contender Sen John McCain has ridiculed as defeatist).

The top US commander in Iraq, Army Lt Gen David Petraeus, is reviewing operations and is supposed to make a recommendation by mid-September. While Bush and others have urged caution, warning that civil war could flare again, it no longer seems in doubt that the number of US combat forces will come down.