Bush's ultimatum.

Byline: The Register-Guard

Napoleon said that going to war is like walking into a darkened room: No one can really know what lies within. The United States stands at the threshold of that room and will cross into it within days, unless Saddam Hussein startles the world by submitting to President Bush's demand that he go into exile. Deep divisions about the president's chosen course have been expressed on these pages, in the streets and in the United Nations. But the world can be united in hoping that the worst apprehensions prove unjustified.

President Bush turned away from his diplomatic efforts Monday night, and in a speech to the nation claimed for the United States the sovereign right to defend itself against threats. He is prepared to go to war "at a time of our choosing" without a second United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq. Bush said the Security Council "has not lived up to its responsibilities, so we will live up to ours."

The president and his advisors had grown increasingly frustrated with the U.N. and several long-time allies in recent weeks as support for a second resolution weakened. Now the United States is on the verge of going to war to enforce earlier U.N. resolutions against Iraq, despite the U.N.'s unwillingness to authorize such action. Having broken away from the restraints imposed by the quest for a collective response to the problem of Iraq, the United States has assumed most of the burdens of war. It's not too early to begin planning to bear the weight of those burdens.

Of most immediate concern is the military burden. Once war begins, a quick and decisive victory would be the best result - one that kills and injures the least possible number of American and allied troops and causes few casualties among Iraqi civilians. America's fighting men and women can be confident of the support of their fellow citizens - the protests and debates have been directed toward U.S. policy, not toward the members of the armed forces who have been assigned the role of fulfilling it.

The United States also bears the burden of minimizing the effects of the dislocation that even a quick victory would entail in Iraq and the Middle East. Iraq is divided along ethnic, religious and linguistic lines, and rivalries long suppressed by Saddam could erupt during or after a war. The fate of Iraq's Kurdish population, currently the most autonomous of Iraq's minorities, is of pressing concern. Turkey, and to a lesser degree Iran, fear Kurdish uprisings in their own territory and could be drawn into military conflicts.

The burden of reconstruction may prove particularly heavy, even if Saddam refrains or is prevented from destroying his country's economic infrastructure. Iraq has the world's second-largest oil reserves and a literate population that could form the basis of a strong middle class. But Saddam's monopoly on government, education, the military and the media means that the country's institutions will have to be rebuilt - and this will have to be done in a way that doesn't allow any ethnic or religious group to exercise unchecked power. Once it sets out to destroy Saddam, the United States will have an obligation to leave Iraq with something better in his place.

The burden of repairing the political damage done by the United States' move to war will be equally important. It's essential that the United States maintain good relations with nations that have become estranged during the debate over Iraq. The United States is about to go to war to enforce U.N. resolutions, so it must restore the credibility and relevance of that institution. The U.N., indeed, will be vital in countering future claims that any nation has the sovereign right to wage war in response to perceived threats rather than actual provocations.

President Bush said Monday night that "war has no certainty except the certainty of sacrifice." The greatest sacrifice is required of the troops and their families, but the entire nation must bear the burden of war in Iraq. One way to honor the direct sacrifice required of American fighting men and women is to ensure that the country as a whole has the will, the patience and the wisdom to fulfill the obligations it will acquire by choosing this path.