Bullish forecast continues, but updates indicate changes.The surging market for cars and trucks, along with the forecasted growth in construction equipment, pipe and fittings, and internal combustion engines Internal combustion engine A prime mover, the fuel for which is burned within the engine, as contrasted to a steam engine, for example, in which fuel is burned in a separate furnace. , has enforced our 1994 boom forecast for the metalcasting industry. However, changes in specific markets will alter the forecasted shipments for 1994. To update our annual AFS A distributed file system for large, widely dispersed Unix and Windows networks from Transarc Corporation, now part of IBM. It is noted for its ease of administration and expandability and stems from Carnegie-Mellon's Andrew File System. AFS - Andrew File System Metalcasting Forecast & Trends report, Stratecasts interviewed key casting consumers in specific market segments. Ductile Iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. Shipments of ductile iron castings are expected to grow 9% in 1994, spurred by increased automotive sales and significant growth in pressure pipe production. Shipments are forecasted to reach 3,991,000 tons this year. Pipe--The forecast of 1,880,000 tons of ductile iron pipe is expected to be achieved based on the improvement in housing starts coupled with an increase in exports to near 10% of the pipe sold. Motor Vehicles--It is forecasted that 1,051,000 tons of ductile iron castings will be consumed in light vehicles in 1994, an increase of 12%. Ductile iron consumption in medium to heavy trucks--originally forecasted at 144,000 tons--has been decreased to 131,000 tons as GM continues to make several parts in malleable iron (Metal.) iron sufficiently pure or soft to be capable of extension under the hammer; also, specif., a kind of iron produced by removing a portion of the carbon or other impurities from cast iron, rendering it less brittle, and to some extent malleable. . Farm Equipment--A surge in farm machinery sales in the second half of 1993 led to an overall gain of 3% in shipments after two consecutive losing years, averaging 13.5% of losses annually. Our forecast has been revised to show a rise in shipments to 90,000 tons. Special Industry Machinery--Reduced production schedules for paper and printing machinery have caused us to revise the ductile iron casting forecast downward to 91,000 tons in 1994. Gray Iron Shipments of gray iron castings in the U.S. are forecasted to grow 5% in 1994 and are expected to reach 5,543,000 tons. Motor Vehicles--Based on the forecasted production of 11,900,000 light vehicles, 1.5 million tons of gray iron are expected to be consumed in blocks, heads, rotors, drums and other castings. As forecasted, about 10% of the light vehicle blocks are to be cast in aluminum, while 52% of the heads are to be aluminum in 1994. Municipal Castings--Our original estimate of 474,000 tons in 1994 has been revised downward due to lower demand by municipalities. Present estimates indicate that gray iron domestic shipments will be 460,000 tons, with imports at 156,000 tons, or 34% of the total. Machine Tool--Spurred by an increase in orders from the automotive industry The automotive industry is the industry involved in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of motor vehicles. In 2006, more than 69 million motor vehicles, including cars and commercial vehicles were produced worldwide. , the domestic machine tool industry grew 21.5% in 1993 and is forecasted to grow an additional 10% in 1994. Gray iron casting production is now forecasted at 118,000 tons, compared to the original forecast of 107,000 tons for 1994. Pumps and Compressors--The pump market continues soft and the recovery from the last three down years is slow. Though we continue to look at 1994 as a turnaround Turnaround A situation where a company that has had poor performance for an extended period of time experiences a positive reversal. Notes: A speculator may profit from a turnaround if he or she accurately anticipates the improvement of a poorly performing company. year, our original forecast of an 11% upswing Upswing An upward turn in a security's price after a period of falling prices. is too bullish Bullish Word used to describe an investor's attitude. Bullish refers to an optimistic outlook, while bearish means a pessimistic outlook. bullish . The revised forecast is 219,000 tons of gray iron, a 6% increase over 1993. Internal Combustion combustion, rapid chemical reaction of two or more substances with a characteristic liberation of heat and light; it is commonly called burning. The burning of a fuel (e.g., wood, coal, oil, or natural gas) in air is a familiar example of combustion. Engines--The diesel engine business continues to be good and our 11% forecasted gain over 1993 to 456,000 tons for both gasoline gasoline or petrol, light, volatile mixture of hydrocarbons for use in the internal-combustion engine and as an organic solvent, obtained primarily by fractional distillation and "cracking" of petroleum, but also obtained from natural gas, by and diesel engines looks obtainable. Steel Castings Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. Shipments of steel castings in 1994 are expected to reach 1.2 million tons, a 3% increase over 1993. Construction and Mining--The mining industry recovered slightly in 1993 after being down for three consecutive years. Though an increase of 2.7% is forecasted for 1994, steel casting shipments are still 10% below the 1989 high. The forecasted steel casting consumption in the mining industry is 98,000 tons in 1994. The construction segment, which continues to show an increase in steel casting shipments in 1993 at 3%, is expected to consume 162,000 tons in 1994. Special Industry Machinery--It is forecasted that 33,000 tons of steel castings will be consumed in special machinery in 1994. The chemical industry continues sluggish in the construction of new facilities, thus reducing the need for new equipment. Pumps and Compressors--Carbon and stainless steel stainless steel: see steel. stainless steel Any of a family of alloy steels usually containing 10–30% chromium. The presence of chromium, together with low carbon content, gives remarkable resistance to corrosion and heat. castings are primarily used in the chemical industry. After three sluggish years, the Years, The the seven decades of Eleanor Pargiter’s life. [Br. Lit.: Benét, 1109] See : Time steel casting pump business is expected to increase 4% in 1994. Railroad--It is forecasted that 561,000 tons of steel castings will be shipped for railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. use in 1994, based on the production of 35,000 freight cars. Aluminum Castings Aluminum casting shipments are forecasted to reach 1.6 million tons in 1994, a 9% increase over 1993. Motor Vehicles--Though GM has postponed some of its plans for aluminum block production, our forecast for 20% use in light vehicle blocks by 1998 looks valid. The use of aluminum heads continues on schedule and is expected to reach 75% by 1998. Our original projection of 150 lb per vehicle (car and truck) has been reduced to 140 lb based on reduced use by OEMs. Therefore, aluminum casting shipments to the automotive industry have been reduced to 854,000 tons, a 10% increase over 1993. Forecasts on other end-use markets are estimated to be valid at this time. However, Stratecasts will continue to monitor and update the marketplace and report again on this page in the June issue of modern casting. |
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