Building the future: engineering in 2015; as the paper industry changes, it must also change its approach to engineering and project management.

The answer to a fundamental question is necessary before anyone can describe engineering projects in 2015. What will the industry look like in 2015? Will the industry revert to being a forest products industry rather than the paper industry? Will people in the paper industry look at the renewable raw materials--trees--and decide that the best way to become profitable is to maximize the return on them?

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The pulp and paper industry may change radically. Lumber and paper may become secondary by-products while synthetic gases become the primary products. One school of thought suggests that a pulp mill is really a large bio-refinery with synthetic gases--mostly hydrogen--as the primary product from biomass and black liquor gasification.

The hydrogen will have use directly in fuel cells or converted to more conventional motor fuels. Motor fuels could be methanol, dimethyl ether, or diesel fuel--substitute fuel via the Fischer-Tropsch process. In this scenario, cellulose fibers for papermaking are a by-product, and lower yields are preferable to maximize hydrogen production.

If future mills are large chemical refineries, then the skill sets and process technology for making pulp and paper will be secondary. Engineering projects will be similar to those of petrochemical refineries.

If the year 2015 finds that the industry still makes paper, three different models for the industry are possible. Each model has a different approach and requires different skill sets. The models will use business models based on the market segments served by the paper industry. The three models may be tissue, niche or market-driven grades, and commodity grades such as linerboard and common printing and writing papers.

BUSINESS MODELS

Tissue and niche or market-driven grades are sensitive to "brand" recognition. They will require specialization of processes to achieve the required customer needs. Tissue has special issues because of its specific performance characteristics and its light weight. It is generally a regional product rather than a global product. The commodity grades will consider cost by determining how inexpensively to make the product required by a customer. Each model will have different types of projects and different approaches and will require different relationships and skills. In the future, relationships of manufacturers, engineering firms, and equipment suppliers will change. They will differ considering the models discussed above. The relationship between engineering companies and equipment suppliers will also change.

In the commodity-based area, the focus will be delivering a product to the customer that meets his requirements and competes in price. The product is not necessarily significantly different from that of a competitor. Equipment and process are "off the shelf," and mills are generic. Specialized engineering is not necessary or desirable. Existing plants will emphasize process improvements to reduce costs by optimizing the use of materials, crewing, energy, etc.

New plants will emphasize total lower costs for manufacturing, installation, construction, and maintenance. New machines will come on line not to add capacity but to replace inefficient capacity but only if the project covers the cost of capital through "real" savings and quality. Commodity producers will not require sophisticated engineering help since processes will not be customized. Engineering support will also be a commodity. Owners will expect the equipment manufacturers to supply the best technology at a minimum life cycle cost to produce the required product. For commodity-based projects, the client of the engineering firm may well be the equipment supplier.

In the niche-based area, the focus will be delivering a specialized performance based product to specific customers. Equipment and processes will change as necessary to develop unique properties. The time from product development to market will be critical. Specialized process engineering will be necessary; projects will be highly confidential and require rapid completion. Machines and processes will require adaptability and design for short runs and high--repeatable--quality.

Niche producers will require their engineering partner to have the process skills necessary to understand the uniqueness of their products and be able to adapt equipment and processes as needed. Whether engineering skills will be internal or external is still a question somewhat dependent upon the anticipated level of project activity. If companies use internal engineering, those groups must compete with the external engineering firms. Equipment suppliers must develop technology, but the application of technology will be based on the product development group of the manufacturer. The paper producers will probably be clients of the engineering firm for niche-based projects.

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LONG-TERM PARTNERSHIPS

Long-term customer oriented relationships will be necessary. This will mandate active partnerships where all parties share information and common goals. For partnerships to work, all parties must understand that the agreements require significant efforts and continuous communications--not merely an occasional sales call.

Understanding the needs of clients and the requirements of their customers will be the core of good project development and management. This starts with the principles developed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII) including "front end loading" (FEL). FEL 0 and 1--strategic thinking--of a project are where business, technology, and product come together to formulate the project plan. If partners are to help with strategic thinking, they must have a strong understanding of business and technology. Few firms excel in both today.

Based on the strategic work, the FEL 2 phase develops the project scope and outlines the metrics that will define the project's success. The cost of the work done through FEL 2 is generally less than 1% of the total project cost. Applying the CII "best practices" during these phases will significantly improve the potential of the project for success. The scope is frozen, and detail engineering occurs in FEL 3. Figures 1 and 2 outline the phases of a project. CII data proves their validity, but the process still does not have wide use. FEL 1 and 2 are the areas on the left side of the diagrams.

REDUCING PROJECT COSTS

Several items will require attention to reduce total project costs. The first item will require consistent practice on large and small projects. This is the use of the "best practices" developed by CII. These include "front end loading" a project to identify the required scope of work, use of the project definition rating index, freezing scopes at the start of detail engineering, adopting the tolerance for "zero accidents" during construction, etc.

The industry approach to construction practices will require review to include the following:

* Modules vs. "stick build"

* Direct hire of general contractors vs. contractors with specific skills for specific jobs such as foundations, piping, erection, etc. (This already occurs to a limited extent for large tanks, fire systems, and specialized heating, ventilation, and air conditioning.)

* Erecting the building first vs. erecting the machinery and then the building

* Deciding whether to install everything in the basement of a paper machine building before erecting the operating floor. (Tanks and pumps often have a shorter delivery time than the machine. The mission is to have the machine or plant operating as quickly as possible and as cost effectively as possible. A good goal is half the time with half the people.)

* Adapting engineering to the extremely fast track construction schedule rather than having them set the schedule.

Automation will require intensification to reduce costs. This means not merely using computers for controlling processes but introducing automation for many tasks currently done manually. Automation for building of subcomponents such as trusses, processes such as threading the paper machine and unmanned winders, and material handling such as rolls and logs.

SKILL SETS

The engineering process will change due to the need for the engineer to understand the business side of a project--what are the real drivers? The engineer will also need to work with high-performance teams, perform work virtually, think out-of-the-box, develop and design large cost effective modules, and be "customer oriented." In other words, the engineer must be better rounded. He must be a team player. His communication skills must be significantly better than today.

To reduce project delivery time and cost, virtual teams will be necessary. These multi-disciplined teams will consist of members located at numerous locations. They will represent equipment suppliers, engineering, production, marketing, maintenance, and construction. Face-to-face meetings will be rare. This will challenge organizational skills. These skill sets are not only for large projects but also for small projects--the so call "mill projects."

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ENGINEERING TOOLS

Engineering tools are evolving today and will continue to evolve. During the last 15 years, design has progressed from two-dimensional to three-dimensional computer aided design (CAD) for large projects. Large projects especially at greenfield sites that have used three-dimensional CAD have realized significant savings by avoiding interferences. Three-dimensional CAD results in significantly less rework with prefabricated components once the design is in the construction phase.

Many companies still prefer two-dimensional CAD for small projects. This practice uses the belief that developing the initial three-dimensional models of the existing project area is too labor intensive. This belief is wrong. Today, the techniques of using laser mapping have advanced to the point where several engineering firms have successfully used laser to map extremely congested areas such as the approach piping around a headbox. These tools will and must continue to evolve to help reduce project costs.

A VISION OF THE FUTURE

Papermaking will not experience any significant changes 15 years from now. Although the fourdrinier machine and many processes are aging, nobody is conducting fundamental research to allow the commercialization of significantly different methodologies within 15 years. The industry will continue to optimize its processes by making them faster and reducing materials, labor, and energy. Hopefully, the industry will learn how to spend project money wisely using business-based models. Following the best practices of CII and employing advanced engineering tools will benefit everyone.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Thanks to all who supplied their thoughts and opinions about engineering in 2015. Many opinions did not vary from one person to the next.

IN THIS ARTICLE, YOU WILL LEARN:

* Why future projects will use product specific business models

* How engineering skills will change

* The roles partnerships may assume

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:

* Construction Industry Institute web site: www.construction-institute.org

* Independent Project Analysis Inc. web site: www.IPAglobal.com

* Jacobs Engineering web site: www.Jacobs.com

* "Tools for doing the right jobs, right," TAPPI Engineering Conference, September 1998

* Colloquium on Black Liquor Gasification sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy, University of Utah, Park City, Utah, July 13-16, 2003

About the author: Robert B. Kinstrey is director, process technology for Jacobs, Greenville, South Carolina, USA, and a member of the Solutions! Editorial Board. He has 35 years of consulting, operating, and technical experience in the manufacture of pulp and paper. Contact him by phone at [phone] or by email at [e-mail].

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ROBERT KINSTREY, Jacobs